December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[frd]

@C.A.P.E.

So here it is , seems like a complex interplay going on , but my focus was on the MJO possibly slowly down. Best to visit the thread, as there are various parts to read and digest, and of course, a bit complicated to a degree.    

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1076525367622541314

 

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     griteater‏ @griteater 4h4 hours ago

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     Replying to @antmasiello

     Anthony - is there synergy here with MJO for powerful subtropical jet thru January?

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     Anthony Masiello‏ @antmasiello 4h4 hours ago

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     yes and it could anchor in the niño forcing/slow the mjo

      

 

[WxUSAF]

28 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Much better than yesterday’s 12z. Not as good as 0z but certainly closer to it than yesterday.  

[CAPE]

The 12z GEFS is quite a bit colder at day 15 than the EPS.

[aldie 22]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Much better than yesterday’s 12z. Not as good as 0z but certainly closer to it than yesterday.  

Cape has a Jan 15th agenda...I think he has money riding on it. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

Cape has a Jan 15th agenda...I think he has money riding on it. 

By the 15th we'll have a brand new set of problems to deal with. I'm thinking Feb 15th we should be good. If not then we can start talking 18-19 to fill the 9 month gap. 

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Much better than yesterday’s 12z. Not as good as 0z but certainly closer to it than yesterday.  

I agree with wrt the HL look. Significantly better than yesterday's 12z run. Not a fan of the EPAC look. Either way it will probably look different at 0z. Hopefully we see the core of the lower h5 heights further back towards the Aleutians going forward.

[aldie 22]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

By the 15th we'll have a brand new set of problems to deal with. I'm thinking Feb 15th we should be good. If not then we can start talking 18-19 to fill the 9 month gap. 

We are going to need an intervention 

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

We are going to need an intervention 

All jokes aside... here's where my head is at...

We rarely get a perfect pattern. Especially with the majority of our snow events. Big storms usually need  close to a perfect pattern but most of our events arent big and usually happen during slightly to moderately flawed setups. 

After another cutter next week it sure looks like only a slightly flawed pattern is on tap. Considering its happening right at the beginning of our "easier" snow climo window I actually feel pretty good about our prospects. Could be 2 events in a pretty short sequence of events. 

I also think that once we get the hell out of the shutout pattern we're in now it's not coming back anytime soon. At least not a 2+ week pac puke job. Maybe a few days will look crappy (just enough for freak outs) but the overall balance of January will feature general conditions that can produce events in the MA. I'm like you in that a 2-3" event is pretty good. Get 2 of those in a 1 week span and it's really good. I'd be surprised if we got to Jan 15th without 1-2 events in the books. Ji might be massively disappointed but you and I will enjoy it if it happens. 

[frd]

 

Quick Strat Update - and honestly this perfectly demonstrates how difficult it is to figure these events out. 

Sure warming is already being measured in remote locations in Russia and the heat fluxes are impressive, but will it be enough to trigger a wind reversal, and if so what about a  downward tropospheric response ( and even if achieved in that progression where does it impact ) 

With that out of the way I give you a great post from Earthlight and also a quick one form HM too.

As for HM's post his emphasis is on the North Atlantic / UK ridge.  Seems HM thinks the end of the year progression is key to maybe a split, if I read that correctly. 

For a personal perspective I wonder if this just lingers on a bit and we still get a wind reversal but a later date.

Also, concur with psu, Isotherm and 40 70 Benchmark we do not need a major event to progress to a better pattern. Keep the SPV weak and perturbed and that is a plus for sure. 

 

Posted 48 minutes ago

I remain uncertain regarding the stratospheric evolution over the next 10 days. Most guidance has backed off significantly on the reversal of zonal winds. There is limited downward propagation being forecast at this time. The EPS remain the most aggressive. We’ll have to see how this all shakes down over the next 5 days - I think we are near peak uncertainty currently with guidance all over the place regarding the positioning of the strat high and the warming event just beginning.

 

 

 

from Anthony 

From Matt , indeed the  12Z Euro is the most aggressive and consistent but that does not make it the correct outcome

 

 

 

 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I mean...for those who don't know what they're looking at, saying this without any details is confusing.

thats actually funny right there.....

Keep studying and if you get that hamster wheel headed in the right direction, in oh.....say.....10 years, you'll be just fine.

Just bustin ya

[pasnownut]

Just a bit more SSW stuff, since we are still waiting for viable threats.  Check this animation of the SSW event.  Rather awesome.  And from what I've read, we would prefer a major disturbance that "fragments" the PV, and ultimately not a split.  Both can work, but If the split sets up in the wrong places, we could be on the wrong side of the trough.  I'd say its akin to a W based NAO that retrogrades and pulls a trough west in the the central US as ridging pops in the east.  Its something we want, but in the right places.

 

[Maestrobjwa]

14 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Just a bit more SSW stuff, since we are still waiting for viable threats.  Check this animation of the SSW event.  Rather awesome.  And from what I've read, we would prefer a major disturbance that "fragments" the PV, and ultimately not a split.  Both can work, but If the split sets up in the wrong places, we could be on the wrong side of the trough.  I'd say its akin to a W based NAO that retrogrades and pulls a trough west in the the central US as ridging pops in the east.  Its something we want, but in the right places.

 

So if I'm understanding this right...it's kinda like putting a hammer to a pile jello...ya either scatter it all over the place, or you split it...the split pieces going in a random direction! (Ack...wouldn't wanna test our luck on the latter option with how we've been going the last couple years!)

I just want this SSW to hurry up and happen already so we can see where we'll be at this year...It's like waiting for a big game to start that's been hyped for weeks, lol

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

All jokes aside... here's where my head is at...

We rarely get a perfect pattern. Especially with the majority of our snow events. Big storms usually need  close to a perfect pattern but most of our events arent big and usually happen during slightly to moderately flawed setups. 

After another cutter next week it sure looks like only a slightly flawed pattern is on tap. Considering its happening right at the beginning of our "easier" snow climo window I actually feel pretty good about our prospects. Could be 2 events in a pretty short sequence of events. 

I also think that once we get the hell out of the shutout pattern we're in now it's not coming back anytime soon. At least not a 2+ week pac puke job. Maybe a few days will look crappy (just enough for freak outs) but the overall balance of January will feature general conditions that can produce events in the MA. I'm like you in that a 2-3" event is pretty good. Get 2 of those in a 1 week span and it's really good. I'd be surprised if we got to Jan 15th without 1-2 events in the books. Ji might be massively disappointed but you and I will enjoy it if it happens. 

Good post. Despite what some here are sayin' about my Jan 15th 'deal', I think there is a decent chance we(broadly speaking) do score something before then. Not too bullish on NYE/day potential at this point, although it is certainly possible given the h5 look is not awful, but beyond that there should be a window of opportunity for 1 or 2 legit chances, inside of Jan 10.

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So if I'm understanding this right...it's kinda like putting a hammer to a pile jello...ya either scatter it all over the place, or you split it...the split pieces going in a random direction! (Ack...wouldn't wanna test our luck on the latter option with how we've been going the last couple years!)

I just want this SSW to hurry up and happen already so we can see where we'll be at this year...It's like waiting for a big game to start that's been hyped for weeks, lol

The best option is to not think much at all about a SSW event. It is one of those nebulous deals, and it may or may not break in our favor if it does occur. Good thing is, given the background state, a legit strat warming event is absolutely not required in order for a very favorable pattern to blossom over the coming weeks.

[poolz1]

9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So if I'm understanding this right...it's kinda like putting a hammer to a pile jello...ya either scatter it all over the place, or you split it...the split pieces going in a random direction! (Ack...wouldn't wanna test our luck on the latter option with how we've been going the last couple years!)

I just want this SSW to hurry up and happen already so we can see where we'll be at this year...It's like waiting for a big game to start that's been hyped for weeks, lol

More like hitting a dough ball....it either stretches from impact or (hopefully) breaks into two or more pieces.  Right now a split "appears" to be forecasted to break in out=r direction.  Maybe not the best analogy...

[pasnownut]

22 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The best option is to not think much at all about a SSW event. It is one of those nebulous deals, and it may or may not break in our favor if it does occur. Good thing is, given the background state, a legit strat warming event is absolutely not required in order for a very favorable pattern to blossom over the coming weeks.

Sorta like the NAO right??

[Ji]

All jokes aside... here's where my head is at...
We rarely get a perfect pattern. Especially with the majority of our snow events. Big storms usually need  close to a perfect pattern but most of our events arent big and usually happen during slightly to moderately flawed setups. 
After another cutter next week it sure looks like only a slightly flawed pattern is on tap. Considering its happening right at the beginning of our "easier" snow climo window I actually feel pretty good about our prospects. Could be 2 events in a pretty short sequence of events. 
I also think that once we get the hell out of the shutout pattern we're in now it's not coming back anytime soon. At least not a 2+ week pac puke job. Maybe a few days will look crappy (just enough for freak outs) but the overall balance of January will feature general conditions that can produce events in the MA. I'm like you in that a 2-3" event is pretty good. Get 2 of those in a 1 week span and it's really good. I'd be surprised if we got to Jan 15th without 1-2 events in the books. Ji might be massively disappointed but you and I will enjoy it if it happens. 

No joke but 2-3 inch events in el Nino is totally unacceptable. Especially with all the qpf bombs we have had this year.

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

All jokes aside... here's where my head is at...
We rarely get a perfect pattern. Especially with the majority of our snow events. Big storms usually need  close to a perfect pattern but most of our events arent big and usually happen during slightly to moderately flawed setups. 
After another cutter next week it sure looks like only a slightly flawed pattern is on tap. Considering its happening right at the beginning of our "easier" snow climo window I actually feel pretty good about our prospects. Could be 2 events in a pretty short sequence of events. 
I also think that once we get the hell out of the shutout pattern we're in now it's not coming back anytime soon. At least not a 2+ week pac puke job. Maybe a few days will look crappy (just enough for freak outs) but the overall balance of January will feature general conditions that can produce events in the MA. I'm like you in that a 2-3" event is pretty good. Get 2 of those in a 1 week span and it's really good. I'd be surprised if we got to Jan 15th without 1-2 events in the books. Ji might be massively disappointed but you and I will enjoy it if it happens. 

No joke but 2-3 inch events in el Nino is totally unacceptable. Especially with all the qpf bombs we have had this year.

Go move your elf

[CAPE]

Just now, pasnownut said:

Sorta like the NAO right??

Not at all. The NAO is not some esoteric thing- the impact a -NAO has on our chances of major winter storm occurrences is well understood.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Jan 1 on looks good..

[Bob Chill]

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

 

No joke but 2-3 inch events in el Nino is totally unacceptable. Especially with all the qpf bombs we have had this year.

I do believe we'll have at least 1 decent storm but prob not in the next 2 weeks. It just has the feel of a crawl/walk/run transition and not a flip the switch into KU'land. Be happy with your 3" event in the next couple weeks before the flip to rain. It will make shoveling easy so look on the bright side. 

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, Ji said:

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

All jokes aside... here's where my head is at...
We rarely get a perfect pattern. Especially with the majority of our snow events. Big storms usually need  close to a perfect pattern but most of our events arent big and usually happen during slightly to moderately flawed setups. 
After another cutter next week it sure looks like only a slightly flawed pattern is on tap. Considering its happening right at the beginning of our "easier" snow climo window I actually feel pretty good about our prospects. Could be 2 events in a pretty short sequence of events. 
I also think that once we get the hell out of the shutout pattern we're in now it's not coming back anytime soon. At least not a 2+ week pac puke job. Maybe a few days will look crappy (just enough for freak outs) but the overall balance of January will feature general conditions that can produce events in the MA. I'm like you in that a 2-3" event is pretty good. Get 2 of those in a 1 week span and it's really good. I'd be surprised if we got to Jan 15th without 1-2 events in the books. Ji might be massively disappointed but you and I will enjoy it if it happens. 

No joke but 2-3 inch events in el Nino is totally unacceptable. Especially with all the qpf bombs we have had this year.

So basically your only happy once a decade when a winter like 1996, 2003, 2010, and 2014 happen.  The rest of the time your a miserable unbearable grinch.  Seems healthy 

[Ji]

So basically your only happy once a decade when a winter like 1996, 2003, 2010, and 2014 happen.  The rest of the time your a miserable unbearable grinch.  Seems healthy 

I don't need a ku dude. But 1-3 is totally unacceptable in what's suppose to an epic winter. I just want wsw criteria 6 plus. Not asking alot

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So basically your only happy once a decade when a winter like 1996, 2003, 2010, and 2014 happen.  The rest of the time your a miserable unbearable grinch.  Seems healthy 

I don't need a ku dude. But 1-3 is totally unacceptable in what's suppose to an epic winter. I just want wsw criteria 6 plus. Not asking alot

We very well could get a warning criteria event in the next 2 weeks. There's been no shortage of juiced up fairly weak waves for months. If we end up on the winning side of southern wave it wouldn't be that hard to get .5-.75 qpf out of it. 

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So basically your only happy once a decade when a winter like 1996, 2003, 2010, and 2014 happen.  The rest of the time your a miserable unbearable grinch.  Seems healthy 

I don't need a ku dude. But 1-3 is totally unacceptable in what's suppose to an epic winter. I just want wsw criteria 6 plus. Not asking alot

I'm not sure there's any such thing as "supposed to be" around here...lol But I understand your position of wanting a legit WSW storm again...it's been almost three years for those of us in the corridor!

[aldie 22]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So basically your only happy once a decade when a winter like 1996, 2003, 2010, and 2014 happen.  The rest of the time your a miserable unbearable grinch.  Seems healthy 

I don't need a ku dude. But 1-3 is totally unacceptable in what's suppose to an epic winter. I just want wsw criteria 6 plus. Not asking alot

I bet if you looked at every single snowfall at Dulles ever the number that equaled 6" or greater is fewer than your age....57 years worth of snow dude and probably less than 50 events 6" or greater 

[Cobalt]

3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I bet if you looked at every single snowfall at Dulles ever the number that equaled 6" or greater is fewer than your age....57 years worth of snow dude and probably less than 50 events 6" or greater 

Dulles has been on quite the streak for 5" or more snow events haven't they? March 2018, March 2017, Jan 2016, numerous events in Feb/March 2015, same with Jan-March 2014.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I agree with wrt the HL look. Significantly better than yesterday's 12z run. Not a fan of the EPAC look. Either way it will probably look different at 0z. Hopefully we see the core of the lower h5 heights further back towards the Aleutians going forward.

Today's run was the kind of step back I don't mind as much.  I agree with Bob and you that this is a step progression. Today's euro is still heading the way we want. Retrograde that trough in the PAC slightly and it gets good fast. Yesterday's run was more a complete "lost the pattern progression completely" burp. I fully expect it to take some time to get to the good stuff. Doesn't mean we can't luck into an event during the transition. But as long as we're heading the right way I'm content.

Kinda lol at the people acting like winter can't be good if it starts January 15. How often do we get a wall to wall winter?  Would 2010 not have been remembered as good had the December hecs missed?  People talk about 87 like it was good but nothing happened until late January. Most admit 2015 was good. But now it has to snow early or the winter sucks?  People are entitled to their opinion. I have no right to tell them what to feel. But I'm not nearly as picky about when my snow comes. But I don't like being miserable all the time. 

[aldie 22]

5 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Dulles has been on quite the streak for 5" or more snow events haven't they? March 2018, March 2017, Jan 2016, numerous events in Feb/March 2015, same with Jan-March 2014.

Still 

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, Ji said:

30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So basically your only happy once a decade when a winter like 1996, 2003, 2010, and 2014 happen.  The rest of the time your a miserable unbearable grinch.  Seems healthy 

I don't need a ku dude. But 1-3 is totally unacceptable in what's suppose to an epic winter. I just want wsw criteria 6 plus. Not asking alot

Bob wasn't saying we won't get a warning event this winter. He was just saying the next 2 weeks during the pattern transition favors minor events. What's wrong with appetizers while we wait for the main course?