WxUSAF Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I just looked at the 0z euro. Heh, yea...that kind of storm. Models all have a similar theme coming up. Surely not a long lead lock it up kind of deal but it's a pretty common type of setup for us to get some sort of snow event. Think a mixed slop event is probably favored, but all snow is certainly possible. So is all rain of course. But got to like the active pattern the first week of January either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 6 minutes ago, LP08 said: 12z has the New Years storm again with a little different progression. Heavy stuff stays south into Southern Va/NC....these always trend north **ALEET** Congrats DT! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 7 minutes ago, LP08 said: 12z has the New Years storm again with a little different progression. Heavy stuff stays south into Southern Va/NC....these always trend north Just like in November....Oh wait 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 13 minutes ago, LP08 said: 12z has the New Years storm again with a little different progression. Heavy stuff stays south into Southern Va/NC....these always trend north Uh oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Uh oh Heh...Snowfall map is pretty similar to December...Uh oh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 This is pretty cool.. There has been a massive Scandinavian ridge for November and December. This is easily the most dominant feature in the Northern Hemisphere. It reflects land ridging north. Look at how the signal keeps moving poleward going into January-February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 15 minutes ago, LP08 said: Heh...Snowfall map is pretty similar to December...Uh oh Actually this one looks a bit different. Not a suppressed slider. It does come up the coast some but its a coastal scraper. Brings snow up to southern third of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Actually this one looks a bit different. Not a suppressed slider. It does come up the coast some but its a coastal scraper. Brings snow up to southern third of NJ. Oh I’m just messing with Panic group. Seems that after the cutter goes and drags the boundary through and a wave rides it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Just now, LP08 said: Oh I’m just messing with Panic group. Seems that after the cutter goes and drags the boundary through and a wave rides it. Yeah that's the general theme. Way out there. Could be a miss, a scraper, something like the 0z run, or yet another rainer(probably more likely). Definitely a period to watch, although it may be a week too soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Surprised hiw quiet it is here with what the Euro had at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 33 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah that's the general theme. Way out there. Could be a miss, a scraper, something like the 0z run, or yet another rainer(probably more likely). Definitely a period to watch, although it may be a week too soon. I vote a Miss to the south, enough of the rain already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Surprised hiw quiet it is here with what the Euro had at 12z. You need to go one forum south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 These 12z EPS runs need to stay away from the chili. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: These 12z EPS runs need to stay away from the chili. Step back? Interesting. My least favorite phrase on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 24 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: These 12z EPS runs need to stay away from the chili. That's two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Just now, leesburg 04 said: That's two Patience! We cannot rush these things. We be good by mid Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Patience! We cannot rush these things. We be good by mid Jan. Unless we take a step back..it happens I have seen it first hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 33 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: These 12z EPS runs need to stay away from the chili. I mean...for those who don't know what they're looking at, saying this without any details is confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Unless we take a step back..it happens I have seen it first hand I guess you could describe it as a step back. Two of the last 3 runs are pretty meh if you are expecting the pattern to incrementally evolve more favorably each run or so. Not a fan of the EPAC look on today's 12z run in the LR compared to what was being advertised 4-5 runs ago. Looks like the blue ball wants to move back into the GOA after retrograding some. The NA look is ok, but not as impressive either. Nothing I am going to worry much about at this point. I think we will still get there- eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: If we get something NYE then perhaps it will tide us over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 12Z FV3 is a cutter but we start out as ice until surface gives out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I guess you could describe it as a step back. Two of the last 3 runs are pretty meh if you are expecting the pattern to incrementally evolve more favorably each run or so. Not a fan of the EPAC look on today's 12z run in the LR compared to what was being advertised 4-5 runs ago. Looks like the blue ball wants to move back into the GOA after retrograding some. The NA look is ok, but not as impressive either. Nothing I am going to worry much about at this point. I think we will still get there- eventually. I like mid month for the pattern to really lock in. If we get to that point and the PAC is still meh with not much help from the Atlantic, I’ll start to get concerned. Until then, I think everything is going along to how many predicted this winter would evolve. And with that said, any snow before 1/15 is a bonus IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 18 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I guess you could describe it as a step back. Two of the last 3 runs are pretty meh if you are expecting the pattern to incrementally evolve more favorably each run or so. Not a fan of the EPAC look on today's 12z run in the LR compared to what was being advertised 4-5 runs ago. Looks like the blue ball wants to move back into the GOA after retrograding some. The NA look is ok, but not as impressive either. Nothing I am going to worry much about at this point. I think we will still get there- eventually. I think HM posted something on the MJO today, and the progression, will try to locate it, and if I find it will post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: 12Z FV3 is a cutter but we start out as ice until surface gives out. Well without getting too emotional we are still punting about a month of winter if Jan15 is when things get going. It would take a lot to make this an epic winter at this point unless things change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Just now, nj2va said: I like mid month for the pattern to really lock in. If we get to that point and the PAC is still meh with not much help from the Atlantic, I’ll start to get concerned. Until then, I think everything is going along to how many predicted this winter would evolve. And with that said, any snow before 1/15 is a bonus IMO. Yeah this is where I am at too. The weeklies started to get good around Jan 8-10, and were pretty sweet by the 20th IIRC. Have to see what the next edition looks like. Hopefully it doesn't kick the can down the road. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 1 minute ago, frd said: I think HM posted something on the MJO today, and the progression, will try to locate it, and if I find it will post it. He did. I saw it, but of course...had absolutely no clue what most of it meant, lol (I need somebody in here to be my HM translator!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Well without getting too emotional we are still punting about a month of winter if Jan15 is when things get going. It would take a lot to make this an epic winter at this point unless things change. Based on the analysis from the trusted vets on this board, I would be stunned if we don't score a modest event by Jan 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Well without getting too emotional we are still punting about a month of winter if Jan15 is when things get going. It would take a lot to make this an epic winter at this point unless things change. It’ll snow (again) this winter, just be patient. Most of the snowfall forecasts for DC (inside Beltway) were ~20-30” IIRC. That seems to be on track based on the weeklies and seasonal models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Just now, Wonderdog said: Based on the analysis from the trusted vets on this board, I would be stunned if we don't score a modest event by Jan 10th. Hope so. This warm/wet cold/dry is. It all that much fun. I would have thought we’d be tracking by now...close to making a kill...we are wandering with our rifles aimlessly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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