frd Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 West Pac Tropical cyclone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 I am thinking, regardless of the strat, looks like changes to our weather pattern here start near the Jan 10th date. Sudden flip maybe or a steady tur to colder after the 15th, too hard to tell yet. However, looking long-term the changes begin near Jan 10th and things really start to become colder and more active here after that. Sure, active beforehand, but the real deal seems to start after Jan 10 th and transitions colder and colder and stormier. Looks really cold to our NW as we near the 10th and building snow cover as well to our NW as well. Here is a post form griteater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 January 15th is 22 days away in case you all were wondering....in other words no way some of you mf'ers are gonna make it that long. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: January 15th is 22 days away in case you all were wondering It will snow a few times before then. In Canaan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 12 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: January 15th is 22 days away in case you all were wondering....in other words no way some of you mf'ers are gonna make it that long. We're going to have an awesome 2 weeks of winter during the 14 week window. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We're going to have an awesome 2 weeks of winter during the 14 week window. If the December storm hadn't hit 2010 was a 2 week winter. Lol. I think our window is longer though. Probably 6 weeks. Not epic the whole time but with several periods we can get snow within a generally favorable 6 weeks from Jan 20 to early march. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 21 hours ago, Snow88 said: Actually it's both I was referring to the Euro, but GFS is really +PNA I guess these long term models are getting more accurate. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/f384.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 12z GFS should flip the moods again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If the December storm hadn't hit 2010 was a 2 week winter. Lol. I think our window is longer though. Probably 6 weeks. Not epic the whole time but with several periods we can get snow within a generally favorable 6 weeks from Jan 20 to early march. I'm just glad to be moving out of the shutout. Folks can worry about d15 and the SSW or mjo or whatever but were fast closing in on a flawed period that can work here. 12z gfs is just one example of how one or more shortwaves can work. Not classic or pretty on the panels but serviceable. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm just glad to be moving out of the shutout. Folks can worry about d15 and the SSW or mjo or whatever but were fast closing in on a flawed period that can work here. 12z gfs is just one example of how one or more shortwaves can work. Not classic or pretty on the panels but serviceable. I'm not worried. I think we probably go through a 2 week period where it's flawed but serviceable. It fits. We got a minor snow early January in 2015, 2010, 2003. 1987 there was a storm they just missed. Gave my area 6". With luck it could be more then minor. I just lol at the people being uber picky about when and how it snows. Like they forgot where they live. I'm not an overly religious fellow but I do get this image of a higher being somewhere hearing that and saying "ok fine no snow for you". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 19 minutes ago, nj2va said: 12z GFS should flip the moods again. Flipped...time for a cup of Christmas punch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Flipped...time for a cup of Christmas punchIt flips every 6 hours 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 looks like 12z ejects some energy out ahead of the west coast low versus 6z which holds it back and produces a cutter. not sure which option would work out better as we get closer. temps ahead of the 12/30 event look doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 The models are having a hard time fiquiring out how much energy to send out of the SW. The runs that are giving us a chance at multiple events are sending it out in pieces. The runs that wait and send it all out at once cut way west nd rain on us. Seems to be flipping every model run Njaed by 87storms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ji said: 31 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Flipped...time for a cup of Christmas punch It flips every 6 hours Gefs playing follow the leader. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Gefs playing follow the leader. Wow! That's very good agreement. If the 18z shows a cutter then all the mini me's will show a cutter also lol. Seems like inside of 10 days there's not much spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 I'm becoming more convinced every day that the MA is going to score at least 1 event over the next 2 weeks. Our bread and butter leans on the convoluted versus perfect side of things. All the pieces that can produce an event appear to be on the table. Figuring out how they play together is impossible but get 2-3 chances of combining precip with just enough cold and we're banking something. My gut instinct is feeling pretty strong right now. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm becoming more convinced every day that the MA is going to score at least 1 event over the next 2 weeks. Our bread and butter leans on the convoluted versus perfect side of things. All the pieces that can produce an event appear to be on the table. Figuring out how they play together is impossible but get 2-3 chances of combining precip with just enough cold and we're banking something. My gut instinct is feeling pretty strong right now. Euro will be the perfect probiotic 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Euro will be the perfect probiotic Pretty sure it will suck curdled eggnog but we'll get a brand new look every 12 hours so it's only a matter of time before even Dr no says maybe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Gefs looks ok moving into the second week of January. Heights building over Canada and up over the pole. Ambiguous over the Conus but get it right up there during prime climo and I would be shocked if we don't get results. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gefs looks ok moving into the second week of January. Heights building over Canada and up over the pole. Ambiguous over the Conus but get it right up there during prime climo and I would be shocked if we don't get results. Pna looks really good and the axis shifted west. If I had to complain about the d15 heights across ens guidance is that it would imply fairly dry conditions with a dominant northern stream. A good ridge/trough axis can fix some of that but if the pna is too far east then it works against our precip potential. On the bright side... We're going to be tracking one or more events before we have to worry about the uber long range. Cold and dry is acceptable with snowpack on the ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 What a change on 12z GFS ensembles. I said the warmth in Europe was concerning. We might just blowtorch January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Do like a hybrid -AO +NAO February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Keeping in mind any model outcome is tough in the medium range, as there are many things happening on the Pac side, as well as the Atlantic side side . These medium range changes even have an outcome on predictions concerning the strat split too. one such example Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Regarding that last post, and as always, great insights from HM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 For a great read check out HM's multiple posts today, really on the mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 46 minutes ago, frd said: For a great read check out HM's multiple posts today, really on the mark. On the mark and indecipherable to the lay reader as always, lol What is the overall point here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 2 hours ago, Ji said: 2 hours ago, BristowWx said: Flipped...time for a cup of Christmas punch It flips us off every 6 hours FIFY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 So 12z GFS and CMC like a quick hitter of something like 1 to 3 for NYE... while the 12z EURO declines to show anything and the 12z FV3 is north in PA to New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Just now, yoda said: So 12z GFS and CMC like a quick hitter of something like 1 to 3 for NYE... EURO declines and FV3 is north in PA Euro has a weak storm to our south. Surface reflection actually seems close to GFS. Just not much precip. I’m guessing upper level support is just weaker on Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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