frd Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 6 minutes ago, yoda said: So 12z GFS and CMC like a quick hitter of something like 1 to 3 for NYE... while the 12z EURO declines to show anything and the 12z FV3 is north in PA to New England Seems the mean snowfall on the EPS has declined from the better look a few days ago. Euro is truly Dr. No, could be featured as the next 007 cyber villan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: On the mark and indecipherable to the lay reader as always, lol What is the overall point here? He is talking about the progession of the Pac and Atlantic and evolution of Atlantic blocking, he has many posts up today. If anything I see what HM posted as the road to where we are going, complex with many players, yet to a degree all inter-related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 That's a cold look on the 12z EPS by day 12. Might be dry though lol. The cold is PAC driven- no hint of NA blocking anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: That's a cold look on the 12z EPS by day 12. Might be dry though lol. The cold is PAC driven- no hint of NA blocking anymore. -NAO is a myth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: -NAO is a myth Lol thats been my line for the past few years. I think its extinct. Even though the models constantly advertise it in the LR, it almost never verifies, other than some transient, 2-day bootleg deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 22 minutes ago, frd said: Seems the mean snowfall on the EPS has declined from the better look a few days ago. Euro is truly Dr. No, could be featured as the next 007 cyber villan It looked pretty decent on the 12z run yesterday. The 0z and 12z runs today have backed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: That's a cold look on the 12z EPS by day 12. Might be dry though lol. The cold is PAC driven- no hint of NA blocking anymore. At this point I’m ready to get rid of the pac crap airmass. Haven’t had a long dry span in months so I don’t expect the faucet to shut off completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 EPS improved somewhat on the setup leading into the possible storm shortly after NYs as it stepped away somewhat from dropping all of the North Stream energy into the southwest. We are also seeing it lose that weakness/southern stream troughing in the southwest in the longer ranges so now we are seeing potential suppression in the longer ranges now beginning to show up in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: That's a cold look on the 12z EPS by day 12. Might be dry though lol. The cold is PAC driven- no hint of NA blocking anymore. I like the gefs look long range better. Not cold but it's close to a great pattern for getting big storms to track under us. The EPS gets the Pacific right then the Atlantic goes to crap. The EPS is a cold/dry look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: I like the gefs look long range better. Not cold but it's close to a great pattern for getting big storms to track under us. The EPS gets the Pacific right then the Atlantic goes to crap. The EPS is a cold/dry look. I agree. Seems things are volatile right now with the pattern progression in the LR, with the MJO and all the strat stuff going on. I would prefer the GEFS be more correct than the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Lol thats been my line for the past few years. I think its extinct. Even though the models constantly advertise it in the LR, it almost never verifies, other than some transient, 2-day bootleg deal. How quickly we forget lol. But other than March last year your right. Been on a long run of positive nao. Amazing we have done as well wrt snow the last 6 years given that fact actually. Since 2013 we are running above normal despite constant +nao. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: I agree. Seems things are volatile right now with the pattern progression in the LR, with the MJO and all the strat stuff going on. I would prefer the GEFS be more correct than the EPS. The EPS took a step towards the gfs in the day 5-10 today so maybe it will capitulate after also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 December so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Jan 18 to 21 most likely to deliver winter synoptics, patience advised. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Jan 18 to 21 most likely to deliver winter synoptics, patience advised. Unfortunately the patience ship sailed on Dec 1st. If we go 3-4 weeks without an event then this place will be a huge smoking crater with debris gently falling from the sky. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 19 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Jan 18 to 21 most likely to deliver winter synoptics, patience advised. That's 25-28 days away that's like a month or something 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Storms don't want to climb up the coast after New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 18z GFS weak wave for NYE with no real precip... but a small quick hitter late Jan 1 into early Jan 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: That's 25-28 days away that's like a month or something Same old song and dance? Delayed but not denied? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Same old song and dance? Delayed but not denied? Most of us thought epic..we should have put the flame out on that around Thanksgiving and this wouldn’t be so painful. We are on track for a snowless December. It happens right. Just wasn’t expecting it at least not this winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Most of us thought epic..we should have put the flame out on that around Thanksgiving and this wouldn’t be so painful. We are on track for a snowless December. It happens right. Just wasn’t expecting it at least not this winter season. Not when Richmond gets a foot....We got a foot too....up our ass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Not when Richmond gets a foot.... We got a foot too....up our ass Yes we did. Can’t even sugar coat that...a size 12 cowboy boot with that knife tip like that dude in Roadhouse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 41 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: That's 25-28 days away that's like a month or something Sunspots man.....sunspots 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Fv3 agreed with a Jan 2 hit 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Fv3 agreed with a Jan 2 hit Well take that and run and pretend December didnt happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Yea...and still has the day 6 threat so 2 threats in 3 days it's been kind of consistent on the first threat being rain for us and a hit for PA into New England though... the 2nd one on Jan 2 the GFS has been agreeing with on that threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Gefs has swapped with EPS and is now the better look long range. Pna ridge east of ideal but this is close to a good look here normally id be upset about the war but with such a epo and pna that could actually save us from suppression 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: No doubt the the day 8 threat has better upside it appears but until the day 6 threat is within 72 hrs and still showing rain I will still be tracking . After all prime climo temp wise so no need for big neg departures Worth keeping an eye on (day 6) but I really have never been high on the chances with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 1 hour ago, yoda said: 18z GFS weak wave for NYE with no real precip... but a small quick hitter late Jan 1 into early Jan 2 I’m going to have to pull out my old college one hitter if we don’t get some snow soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gefs has swapped with EPS and is now the better look long range. Pna ridge east of ideal but this is close to a good look here normally id be upset about the war but with such a epo and pna that could actually save us from suppression Would rather see the SE ridging. That would put the SS into play. But I guess beggars can't be choosers so we take what's given to us. Though I think the look above favors into the NE rather then the mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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