showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 Overnight GEFS is really going to town with the EPO/PNA ridging. If that is accurate we are probably looking at a major cold shot in the extended. Probably much colder then what it suggests at this time. Unfortunately it probably also means major suppression as we see no SE ridging nor WAR to combat the deep NW flow. eta: EPS is also starting to ramp up on the EPO/PNA ridging as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 Fv3 overnights did not look horrible for the overall pattern once beyond this weekend. Ridging in west pops and trough digs in the east as we turn the calendar. I'm just going to leave it at that cause its Christmas and I'm considering that a good gift, and not a lump of coal. Out to the end of the run, the 500 maps are definitely bringing the cold. Hope ya'll have a great Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Overnight GEFS is really going to town with the EPO/PNA ridging. If that is accurate we are probably looking at a major cold shot in the extended. Probably much colder then what it suggests at this time. Unfortunately it probably also means major suppression as we see no SE ridging nor WAR to combat the deep NW flow. eta: EPS is also starting to ramp up on the EPO/PNA ridging as well. Look at Fv3 500 maps beyond next week. Mother load of cold is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 One thing we are seeing on both models, which IMO is a big positive, is that they are and have been moving towards the idea of placing part of the pv into northern Canada towards the Hudson Bay region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 20 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Fv3 overnights did not look horrible for the overall pattern once beyond this weekend. Ridging in west pops and trough digs in the east as we turn the calendar. I'm just going to leave it at that cause its Christmas and I'm considering that a good gift, and not a lump of coal. Out to the end of the run, the 500 maps are definitely bringing the cold. Hope ya'll have a great Christmas. Just looked at that. An attempted bridging of the EPO/PNA ridge and the NAO over the pole. That would be extreme cold as a portion of the pv gets displaced south over the GL. Though quite often this can be a very cold, dry setup as everything gets suppressed south it also can bring its own fun as energy rotates around that pv. Think possibly high ratio, dry, wind blown, in the teens snow. Actually have had a couple of KU's (miller Bs) with a similar setup though it escapes me which ones at this time. Maybe I will dig into my Kocin books a little later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 Merry Christmas all! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 49 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Overnight GEFS is really going to town with the EPO/PNA ridging. If that is accurate we are probably looking at a major cold shot in the extended. Probably much colder then what it suggests at this time. Unfortunately it probably also means major suppression as we see no SE ridging nor WAR to combat the deep NW flow. eta: EPS is also starting to ramp up on the EPO/PNA ridging as well. Yeah the EPS has gone bonkers on the Pac side the past few runs, while losing the NA ridging in the LR. It does look cold. I prefer the GEFS look up top, and maybe the EPS will trend that way. Per the weeklies it gets there eventually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 51 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: One thing we are seeing on both models, which IMO is a big positive, is that they are and have been moving towards the idea of placing part of the pv into northern Canada towards the Hudson Bay region. Like I always say get the cold established then we can set the stage for frozen as the pattern cycles. Cold antecedent air masses are probably the number one most overlooked or taken for granted ingredient for a winter storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 FV3 gives us three opportunities and we miss to the north and west on the first two and then miss to the south and east on the third. Call me skeptical but even with our usual lack of luck, I find it hard to believe we get shut out, especially on the 3rd one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 12 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: FV3 gives us three opportunities and we miss to the north and west on the first two and then miss to the south and east on the third. Call me skeptical but even with our usual lack of luck, I find it hard to believe we get shut out, especially on the 3rd one. Agreed. Definitely should start getting true threats to discuss in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 This is a nice h5 look and offers potential for just beyond the NYE event, which still favors rain for most here at this point. We have NA ridging, a daughter vortex, and cold air now becoming entrenched. There is just enough of a SE ridge to offset what might otherwise be a suppressed system. It is suppressed on the op run, but not as much on the ens mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 So how are we looking going forward? Do we score medium/big or score garbage?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 So how are we looking going forward? Do we score medium/big or score garbage?? We’re screwed until we get a brother vortex and our MJO back. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 Long range GFS looks really good, under the -EPO is a GOA trough, perfect for snow. -NAO on long range models probably won't verify, it seems that everytime there is a stratosphere warming the models show this at 500mb in the long range. If it verifies, we could be in SECS heaven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: This is a nice h5 look and offers potential for just beyond the NYE event, which still favors rain for most here at this point. We have NA ridging, a daughter vortex, and cold air now becoming entrenched. There is just enough of a SE ridge to offset what might otherwise be a suppressed system. It is suppressed on the op run, but not as much on the ens mean. yeah thats a setup that could make many happy as its a nice looking 500mb pattern...especially down your way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 There is definitely some mid-latitude warmth in the cards right now. If indices become favorable for cold, expect the WAR to pop which is favorable for coastal storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: This is a nice h5 look and offers potential for just beyond the NYE event, which still favors rain for most here at this point. We have NA ridging, a daughter vortex, and cold air now becoming entrenched. There is just enough of a SE ridge to offset what might otherwise be a suppressed system. It is suppressed on the op run, but not as much on the ens mean. I like this look a lot. Without looking at the surface, I’d say this favors a winter event for our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 2 hours ago, Wonderdog said: FV3 gives us three opportunities and we miss to the north and west on the first two and then miss to the south and east on the third. Call me skeptical but even with our usual lack of luck, I find it hard to believe we get shut out, especially on the 3rd one. You underestimate our ability to fail my friend. We excel at this. And of course your snowblower is also killing our chances. Merry HoHo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 A few weeks ago there was discussion on here of the euro overdoing lows in the Southwest. Fast forward to Christmas. My wife got me Tim Vasquez's Weather Map Handbook. One the first thing I noticed when flipping through it was this starement: "The ECMWF is notorious for overdoing or overpopulating cutoff lows, particularly in the Southwest US." You guys know your stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 Just some "slight" changes on the 12z GFS regarding the potential events late next weekend into the following week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Just some "slight" changes on the 12z GFS regarding the potential events late next weekend into the following week. Minor, at best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: You underestimate our ability to fail my friend. We excel at this. And of course your snowblower is also killing our chances. Merry HoHo Next week is trending better on the 12z GFS. I think I'll put the oil into the new toy tomorrow. And no, I don't underestimate our penchant for failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Just some "slight" changes on the 12z GFS regarding the potential events late next weekend into the following week. Yah think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 Just now, showmethesnow said: Yah think? I like the look of this panel. Potential not realized this run, but here we go again with the delicate interplay between the ss s/w and northern stream energy rotating down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: I like the look of this panel. Potential not realized this run, but here we go again with the delicate interplay between the ss s/w and northern stream energy rotating down. That was catching my eye as well. Slow that NS energy down just a touch and get deeper dig then we may be onto something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 @C.A.P.E.Will be interesting to see what the GEFS has with that post New Year system if the members decide to play follow the leader with the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 What a pattern by the end. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 The 500's on the latest GEFS run are getting very interesting for the potential storm just after the New Year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 Couple of GEFS members still have a light NYE event. Not a majority, but that idea still exists. More look promising for just after New Years... some on the first, some on the second, some on the third. 31st-3rd certainly looks like a window of opportunity. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: The 500's on the latest GEFS run are getting very interesting for the potential storm just after the New Year. Yup. I liked the h5 look on the 6z run this morning, and then the 12z op run followed with a nice tease. The 12z GEFS look continues the intrigue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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