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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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On 12/2/2018 at 5:51 PM, Wow said:

2/2004 as I recall it was modeled always as a good precip maker with temp issues but in the last 72 hrs it trended colder and colder with each run. 

also, Fishel and WRAL seem to often speak as if their entire audience lives in Wake County and Raleigh. The microclimates of Chapel Hill, Durham, and Person County often are a total different world during winter events.

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Just now, Regan said:

Still saying 1-3. Even with NWS saying 4-6. 

I mean...hes a 30+ year met.  I dont think just because NWS puts out their call that it affects his thoughts that much.

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Just now, WinstonSalemArlington said:

also, Fishel and WRAL seem to often speak as if their entire audience lives in Wake County and Raleigh. The microclimates of Chapel Hill, Durham, and Person County often are a total different world during winter events.

Im from person county...trust me...the people there know to add a couple inches atleast to whatever wral calls for.

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2 minutes ago, JoshWeather said:

I mean...hes a 30+ year met.  I dont think just because NWS puts out their call that it affects his thoughts that much.

Well seems all the tv mets are saying 1-3. 

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Just now, Regan said:

Well seems all the tv mets are saying 1-3. 

For Wake County, that's probably reasonable, except the northern parts. Even compatible with NWS forecast tbh.

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27 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Last one for the night, the GGEM. Just about every model has between 10-14" in the northern Triad. 

GGEM.png

Man that is a crazy tight gradient south of Winston/GSO. A foot to near zero in 30 miles :facepalm:

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The thing is, it pays for TV mets to be conservative. In our area things will be conservative say 90% of the time. So if you call low 100% of the time, you'll be right 90% of the time. The other 10% of the time you'll be forgiven. If you call high one time when it's not there, people will always remember that. Fishel gets to hang his hat on the 2000 storm where he was basically the only one to get it right, but late in his career (arguably) it's easy to just take the conservative road and be right most of the time. That's not really a criticism per se, it's just a way to maintain a steady state.

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6 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

also, Fishel and WRAL seem to often speak as if their entire audience lives in Wake County and Raleigh. The microclimates of Chapel Hill, Durham, and Person County often are a total different world during winter events.

Fish's comments wrt temps up north not being very cold were in reference to getting any copious amounts of zr which he believes will not be likely in the area.  Rather more of a rain/snow event.  That's reasonable.  We might be lucky this isn't January or at least the HP which was modeled as a 1040 earlier in the week is now being projected as only a 1033/34 or so.

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3 minutes ago, RTPGiants said:

The thing is, it pays for TV mets to be conservative. In our area things will be conservative say 90% of the time. So if you call low 100% of the time, you'll be right 90% of the time. The other 10% of the time you'll be forgiven. If you call high one time when it's not there, people will always remember that. Fishel gets to hang his hat on the 2000 storm where he was basically the only one to get it right, but late in his career (arguably) it's easy to just take the conservative road and be right most of the time. That's not really a criticism per se, it's just a way to maintain a steady state.

To me, it seemed that he was quite stung by the outcry after the Jan 2016 debacle (much of which was undeserved in my opinion).  I half wonder if that experience may have added a bit to his conservatism.

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Just now, cbmclean said:

To me, it seemed that he was quite stung by the outcry after the Jan 2016 debacle (much of which was undeserved in my opinion).  I half wonder if that experience may have added a bit to his conservatism.

What happened in January 2016?

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Just now, BIG FROSTY said:

Another good run for GFS Jr. 

fv3p_asnow_us_12.png

We'll use one without all the ice.

 

GFSFV3FLT1_prec_kuchsnow_051.png

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1 minute ago, wxdawg10 said:

i think he meant January 2017. the infamous bust

It was fine for me in Durham. Couple inches of snow and sleet. It looked nice.

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29 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

I shifted the snow a tad further south due to colder air & a longer duration of snow & sleet, but it still changes to ice Sunday pm. The ice threat keeps going up. #snOMG #cltwx #ncwx #scwx

I'm afraid ice will end up being the big story in the big metro areas of Charlotte and GSP including where I am southeast of Spartanburg. Areas just north of these 2 metros will do very well with snow. If we get this setup in Jan or Feb though, more of us would get snow. 

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7 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Yes, I meant Jan 2017.  Sorry.

Pretty much every tv met missed that one.  I was in the 8+ inch zone within hrs of the event and ended up with rain and some flurries.

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30 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

To me, it seemed that he was quite stung by the outcry after the Jan 2016 debacle (much of which was undeserved in my opinion).  I half wonder if that experience may have added a bit to his conservatism.

It was Dec 2000.  In an attempt to not miss out on a Carolina crusher redux, he went all in with huge totals all over the triangle  (I think there was a 12-18"+ band on his call map).  Woke up the next morning to sunny skies and what there was of the storm had skipped over us and was snowing in the coastal plain (and not nearly that much snow).

Ever since then he has been conservative with what he shows on air.

Here is a write up on the storm:

https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/cases/20001203/

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All gonna come down to warm nose. Wouldn’t trust the globals fully. But the euro and FV3 consistency has been impressive


.

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22 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

if this verifies..new king on the block.

This is really the only model showing me getting more than anything other than some onset stuff before going to all rain. I'm in western pitt county in the 5 inch zone but not far from the 11 inches in Wilson county. In no way do i expect this to be correct but its something that will tarnish the Fv3 when it takes over. Its snowfall outputs will forever be questioned if its wrong. We will no longer be getting nam'd but Fv3'd!!

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12 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

One th ing about it radar looks like a beast and moving almost due east. Finger moisture out front is crossing into GA and will be in Sw mtns/ upstate by daybreak

Per WYFF radar already snow showing up in AVL area.

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