eyewall Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Is there such thing as a cold rain or sleet blizzard? Nope, snow only with vis below 1/4 mile for at least 3 hours in frequent wind gusts of 35 mph or higher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 12 minutes ago, Hvward said: Put my initial map out this am. I think you are being too generous to us upstate folks. Hope you are right though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 15 minutes ago, Hvward said: Put my initial map out this am. Think you might be under estimating the Triad (Greensboro/Winston Salem). I wouldn't group it in the same as Raleigh. But we will see! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan80963 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow dog said: I think you are being too generous to us upstate folks. Hope you are right though... He probably not too far off for the northern upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Will there be any issues with wind around Charlotte or surrounding suburbs north or south? Haven't seen much talk about wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow dog said: I think you are being too generous to us upstate folks. Hope you are right though... Nice map! I can see Caesars head getting 12” easily! TR gets 4-6+” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, SLAMSTORM22 said: Will there be any issues with wind around Charlotte or surrounding suburbs north or south? Haven't seen much talk about wind I think it depends on how much snow or freezing rain. If it's either of those, you could see limbs breaking. Not so much with sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Nice map! I can see Caesars head getting 12” easily! TR gets 4-6+” How much for golden strip? Will we get 6-12 like Brick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, WarmNose said: How much for golden strip? Will we get 6-12 like Brick? If you wish it, it’ll happen, I promise! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Wonder if we will see a Blizzard warning at some point for the mountains of NC if those winds hold true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Well this is GSP's hourly forecast for Charlotte so, if there is snow and ice on trees, then yes I'd be somewhat concerned with gusty winds. W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, sarcean said: Think you might be under estimating the Triad (Greensboro/Winston Salem). I wouldn't group it in the same as Raleigh. But we will see! Agree on Greensboro. They tend to get a similar to the SVA Counties to their north. Greensboro is 500' higher than Raleigh after the plain ends around Hillsborough. I would place my boundaries around that elevation change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, sarcean said: Wonder if we will see a Blizzard warning at some point for the mountains of NC if those winds hold true I think they are definitely going to have to consider it because the Euro definitely shows 35 plus for much more than 3 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozmaea Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 How much for golden strip? Will we get 6-12 like Brick?Simpsonville?Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, SimeonNC said: Do you see CLT staying frozen throughout the whole storm, honestly I think it might happen. Sent from my Z983 using Tapatalk It depends where in CLT. Ballantyne? No. Shuffletown or Mountain island? better shot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, ozmaea said: Simpsonville? Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Ive seen these storms set up shot with a raging sleet storm between Mauldin and Greenwood. North side of 276 in Mauldin usually sitting right on that snow transition line. All goods north from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 18 minutes ago, sarcean said: Think you might be under estimating the Triad (Greensboro/Winston Salem). I wouldn't group it in the same as Raleigh. But we will see! Stokes County 2-4 and Surry County gets 12-24. Now that would be one crazy cut off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Does anyone care about the SREF plumes at this range? GSO snow mean is 8.3" and qpf is 1.56" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Poimen said: Does anyone care about the SREF plumes at this range? GSO snow mean is 8.3" and qpf is 1.56" That tells me a lot of that isn’t falling as snow. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 50 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: I am saying the totals they are showing rarely happen here. But it seems that is what most people are basing everything on in discounting the models. And if you have that attitude about what the models show, even when the majority of them have been showing the same thing the past two days, then I don't even get the point of looking at them. I agree. IMO, based on the forecast 500 mb pattern, its forecast evolution, and the very good run-to-run continuity of the guidance, one should have above average confidence in the modeled snows. While some changes from the current guidance are likely, those changes should be smaller than is typically the case. One isn't dealing with a storm in which there's a significant probability that it could track much farther north and west than what is currently shown. One also isn't dealing with a storm where there is such great uncertainty about the thermal profile or a marginal air mass where things could rapidly "fall apart" so to speak. This is likely to be a special storm for the Lower Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Southeast. It could be a memorable one for parts of the region. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Anyone looked at the Euro for later next week, heavy rain, possible t storms with a strong upper low and then wraparound snow for mtns.. could be flooding issues in areas especially in locations with over 6 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, donsutherland1 said: IMO, based on the forecast 500 mb pattern, its forecast evolution, and the very good run-to-run continuity of the guidance, one should have above average confidence in the modeled snows. While some changes from the current guidance are likely, those changes should be smaller than is typically the case. One isn't dealing with a storm in which there's a significant probability that it could track much farther north and west than what is currently shown. One also isn't dealing with a storm where there is such great uncertainty about the thermal profile or a marginal air mass where things could rapidly "fall apart" so to speak. This is likely to be a special storm for the Lower Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Southeast. It could be a memorable one for parts of the region. thanks Don! you da man! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 15 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: It depends where in CLT. Ballantyne? No. Shuffletown or Mountain island? better shot. If there is ZR or IP all the way down to the NE ATL burbs, then there is no reason why Charlotte couldn't say all frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: That tells me a lot of that isn’t falling as snow. TW yeah...the ARW cores had a mean snowfall of 11.63" though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Poimen said: Does anyone care about the SREF plumes at this range? GSO snow mean is 8.3" and qpf is 1.56" Near Boone (KTNB) is 17.4" with a QPF of 1.91" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 EPS and Euro is locked in boys and girls very similar eps QPF and snowfall mean compared to 00z actually 12z increased slightly . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greendave Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 19 minutes ago, Shane said: Agree on Greensboro. They tend to get a similar to the SVA Counties to their north. Greensboro is 500' higher than Raleigh after the plain ends around Hillsborough. I would place my boundaries around that elevation change Agree 100%. I live in Burlington and I've seen the transition line setup so many times quite literally in a line from just south of Graham and over towards Mebane and Efland more times than not. And to the point of not grouping us with RDU. Yesterday I left RDU for home and witnessed a 7degree temp drop and arrived to snow/graupel flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 HKY mean for SREF plumes was right at 12”, CLT was touch over 4”. Both had a total QPF a touch a few hundredths over 2”. But the sref burned us last year even up to go time, plus it’s at the long-range time period of this short range model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said: What time does the 18z NAM run again? It started running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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