HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 29 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: The frontal passage last Christmas morning is one of my favorite Christmas events ever I wasn't just bustin' but it is pretty humorous how many years have a pre-Christmas warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Stick with the Euro Seasonal. The Euro Weeklies have been awful with their track record for the last couple of months. The CFS continues to show good signs for snowy and cold weather into Dec-Jan and February as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 32 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: The frontal passage last Christmas morning is one of my favorite Christmas events ever I have absolutely no recollection of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: I have absolutely no recollection of that. Too many Shirley Temple egg nogs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I wasn't just bustin' but it is pretty humorous how many years have a pre-Christmas warm up. We proved a scientific fact there is a bump up of average temps all across NE the 23rd and 24th. Also we found a slight precip increase. Grinch is real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m actually on board for a big big December Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: We proved a scientific fact there is a bump up of average temps all across NE the 23rd and 24th. Also we found a slight precip increase. Grinch is real For reals? Interesting, maybe part of current climo for the Northeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: We proved a scientific fact there is a bump up of average temps all across NE the 23rd and 24th. Also we found a slight precip increase. Grinch is real We've proved it is real historically, but we haven't proved a physical cause for it....i.e., it could be random chance. Out of so many days, you are likely to have a few that buck climo by random chance over a 100 year sample. If that is the case, then it won't have any skill at predicting the future. If there is an acute physical cause, then it will. I lean toward it being random variance, but obviously can't rule out there is a physical reason behind it....if there is, it just hasn't been proven yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: We've proved it is real historically, but we haven't proved a physical cause for it....i.e., it could be random chance. Out of so many days, you are likely to have a few that buck climo by random chance over a 100 year sample. If that is the case, then it won't have any skill at predicting the future. If there is an acute physical cause, then it will. I lean toward it being random variance, but obviously can't rule out there is a physical reason behind it....if there is, it just hasn't been proven yet. It's probably akin to the random daily record values that are wildly off neighboring days. A sample size for a single day over 100 years is not that large and could certainly introduce some randomness to the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Aerosols from travel? That's interesting though. I remember you guys discussing the Grinch anomalies before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Just now, OceanStWx said: It's probably akin to the random daily record values that are wildly off neighboring days. A sample size for a single day over 100 years is not that large and could certainly introduce some randomness to the data. In my current understanding of climo, I have no reason to believe there is some phenomenon that causes grinch cutters in the 2-3 days period near Xmas. Doesn't mean there isn't something well beyond my meteorological understanding though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Grinch be the Grinch some things are just better left unexplained Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2018 Author Share Posted November 23, 2018 Are there actually more planes flying during the holidays or just more people in them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Are there actually more planes flying during the holidays or just more people in them? Yeah...even if there are a few more I doubt it has an effect on global weather patterns. It sounds a bit voodoo like DT's weekend rule. I know Nick was probably just throwing out a possible cause if one was to assume it wasn't random chance so I'm not accusing him of actually believing it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 GFS is basically a srfc trough passing through for storm two. Snow looks more for nrn spots, mtns etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2018 Author Share Posted November 23, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: GFS is basically a srfc trough passing through for storm two. Snow looks more for nrn spots, mtns etc. CMC also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 We're inside 5 days and the Euro may get schooled again. That's troublesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 44 minutes ago, weathafella said: Are there actually more planes flying during the holidays or just more people in them? Pretty sure most flight are full these days anyway. 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS is basically a srfc trough passing through for storm two. Snow looks more for nrn spots, mtns etc. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Weeklies were an epic disaster for a good chunk of December. Hopefully they are wrong. Week 3/4 do have very low skill, so we've got that going for us. Time will tell as always if the weeklies are right but I do not think there can be much surprise if they do pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2018 Author Share Posted November 23, 2018 9 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Pretty sure most flight are full these days anyway. Next. I’ve been on many not this autumn. I don’t think there’s much addition of flights this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Looking very warm in the east (1, 2 & 3). Can anyone comment on the subsurface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Big rainers, start to met winter not looking so tasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2018 Author Share Posted November 23, 2018 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Big rainers, start to met winter not looking so tasty. With climo mid 40s for a high on 12/1 it’s not so unusual.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 As long as we avoid the one-eyed cyclops in AK, I'm good. Here on the coast, I can't get to excited until post 12/20 anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: With climo mid 40s for a high on 12/1 it’s not so unusual.... Truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2018 Author Share Posted November 23, 2018 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: As long as we avoid the one-eyed cyclops in AK, I'm good. Here on the coast, I can't get to excited until post 12/20 anyway. Read up. The weeklies are forecasting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Read up. The weeklies are forecasting it. I saw...hoping that it's off or at least transient. It's a Nino, so hopefully it doesn't become a permanent resident IF it does develop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 What’s Dick Tolleris saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 11 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: As long as we avoid the one-eyed cyclops in AK, I'm good. Here on the coast, I can't get to excited until post 12/20 anyway. That’s exaclty what the weeklies show. See how it pans out... but we better hope it’s a transient feature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 18 minutes ago, weathafella said: Read up. The weeklies are forecasting it. They are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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