ScituateWX Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: They struggled this season too...probably even moreso. But still...does seem like some support for them..especially since EPS started to head that way on the end of the run. I guess we shall see. I thought I saw somewhere that the EURO has not had a good handle on the MJO and the phases it has and will be heading toward I’m not sure what is injected into each weekly run they are run what twice a week? I know I have asked before but does anyone have a link that might break down the MJO and it’s influence on the weather pattern? Something weenie friendly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 44 minutes ago, weathafella said: I’ve been on many not this autumn. I don’t think there’s much addition of flights this time of year. This week’s boost in flights is one area in which flights have been expanded; already, extra capacity has already been added https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/grantmartin/2018/11/22/need-a-last-minute-thanksgiving-flight-check-american-airlines-and-southwest/amp/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: That’s exaclty what the weeklies show. See how it pans out... but we better hope it’s a transient feature As I mentioned yesterday, it looks like a series of storms hits the pacific NW. And I never view that as a good thing for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: As I mentioned yesterday, it looks like a series of storms hits the pacific NW. And I never view that as a good thing for SNE. Voodoo, Guess the date 3 Pac NW storms in a row then boom here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 26 minutes ago, weathafella said: With climo mid 40s for a high on 12/1 it’s not so unusual.... True. The big dec calls starting to fade slowly every run though. I’m on board for a big winter (before ginxy and the acatt crowd start slinging dry mud at me) but it may not get the wire to wire 4 months of blissful snowflakes some are demanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 11 minutes ago, ScituateWX said: I thought I saw somewhere that the EURO has not had a good handle on the MJO and the phases it has and will be heading toward I’m not sure what is injected into each weekly run they are run what twice a week? I know I have asked before but does anyone have a link that might break down the MJO and it’s influence on the weather pattern? Something weenie friendly! It Seems like the MJO is moving into a phase that would allow for lower heights out west. It's really not uncommon at all to see in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Every good winter has breaks. Wire to wire doesn't mean all snow and cold for months. Every wire to wire winter had breaks. It's those 4+ week breaks that can cost the wire to wire branding of a season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 36 minutes ago, weathafella said: With climo mid 40s for a high on 12/1 it’s not so unusual.... And after this unusual cold spell for November, anything approaching climo will seem like a torch to many, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It Seems like the MJO is moving into a phase that would allow for lower heights out west. It's really not uncommon at all to see in December. An AK vortex with a western US trough is pretty anamolous though. It should be either or in the LR right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: An AK vortex with a western US trough is pretty anamolous though. It should be either or in the LR right? You don't want a massive trough from AK to LAX. But, sometimes you get lower heights in AK and then it moves down through Canada into western US or the GOAK. If a dateline ridge were to pop or some higher heights near Greenland, it would help with an all out furnace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Every good winter has breaks. Wire to wire doesn't mean all snow and cold for months. Every wire to wire winter had breaks. It's those 4+ week breaks that can cost the wire to wire branding of a season. If the pack melts mid season, even if it takes 3 days of ulta dews...it’s no longer a wire to wire to many’s eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: If the pack melts mid season, even if it takes 3 days of ulta dews...it’s no longer a wire to wire to many’s eyes. Then we never had one. It happens a our latitude. Very very tough to avoid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: True. The big dec calls starting to fade slowly every run though. I’m on board for a big winter (before ginxy and the acatt crowd start slinging dry mud at me) but it may not get the wire to wire 4 months of blissful snowflakes some are demanding. It will probably be a decent month, but nothing to remember four years from now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Then we never had one. It happens a our latitude. Very very tough to avoid. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 I heard more bad news from Raindancx in the Enso forum saying we are heading into a moderate El Nino and some models are now showing a Strong El Nino. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You don't want a massive trough from AK to LAX. But, sometimes you get lower heights in AK and then it moves down through Canada into western US or the GOAK. If a dateline ridge were to pop or some higher heights near Greenland, it would help with an all out furnace. Yea, I think AK low will be transient if it develops...I don't think it will become a prevalent feature this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Just now, leo2000 said: I heard more bad news from Raindancx in the Enso forum saying we are heading into a moderate El Nino and some models are now showing a Strong El Nino. We shall see. Pay no mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Listen guys, let's try to relax. I looked at many of the analogs with what this weak El Nino favors. First, December overall can range from 5-6" to 10-11" for the Boston area especially Logan International. The real fun doesn't start until very late December into January troughout the winter. Even the historical weak el Ninos don't show their cards until later. So let's not go overboard. Winter hasn't started yet at all. What we have all now and seen is a bonus. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: True. The big dec calls starting to fade slowly every run though. I’m on board for a big winter (before ginxy and the acatt crowd start slinging dry mud at me) but it may not get the wire to wire 4 months of blissful snowflakes some are demanding. Lol so so sensitive. 2002 2003 was the closest thing to wire to wire you can get. I had snow cover minus 6 days mid Dec from Nov 27 to March 17th, pretty sure interior ran the gamut. Of course excepting AEMATT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2018 Author Share Posted November 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, leo2000 said: I heard more bad news from Raindancx in the Enso forum saying we are heading into a moderate El Nino and some models are now showing a Strong El Nino. We shall see. So our March is cooked? There’s about a 3 month lag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, leo2000 said: I heard more bad news from Raindancx in the Enso forum saying we are heading into a moderate El Nino and some models are now showing a Strong El Nino. We shall see. Anything to make it snow in ABQ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Raindancewx know his stuff, but TBH, I don't think he is entirely objective. You could show that guy a chart from 2-4-78 and he would tell you the pattern was prime for a New Mexico nuke. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I think AK low will be transient if it develops...I don't think it will become a prevalent feature this season. Its absolutely transient in the EPS 46 days , FWIW 2m temps BN and snowfall AN next 5 weeks. The 10 day period everyone is freaking out about is BN temp and BN precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 20 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: True. The big dec calls starting to fade slowly every run though. I’m on board for a big winter (before ginxy and the acatt crowd start slinging dry mud at me) but it may not get the wire to wire 4 months of blissful snowflakes some are demanding. Thats kind of a conundrum ya got going on there. Too late blooming Miller Bs for you yet you are having a big winter. Lake effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: So our March is cooked? There’s about a 3 month lag. There is zero chance el nino ends up strong ONI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Agreed. The winter might end up directly between a weak and moderate but right now I still favor a weak one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: There is zero chance el nino ends up strong ONI. Who cares its practically Dec. My eyes are on the West Coast. Ridge them up to AK 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2018 Author Share Posted November 23, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Who cares its practically Dec. My eyes are on the West Coast. Ridge them up to AK Right. It no longer matters. And nervous Leo came back quickly! New Leo cancel? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Thats kind of a conundrum ya got going on there. Too late blooming Miller Bs for you yet you are having a big winter. Lake effect? I said most tracks will be close by this winter not outside the bm where only se zones get to play tongue hockey with each other. IF the B’s develop late, then it favors interior (cne & nne). Big winter for most but breaks here and there. Glad we finally got my thoughts straightened out. You going big dec to mar, wire to wire, acatt record breaking deep snows to your weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I said most tracks will be close by this winter not outside the bm where only se zones get to play tongue hockey with each other. IF the B’s develop late, then it favors interior (cne & nne). Big winter for most but breaks here and there. Glad we finally got my thoughts straightened out. You going big dec to mar, wire to wire, acatt record breaking deep snows to your weenie. There will be thaws, always are. Like the Grinch for Christmas the 3rd week of Jan is thaw week 75% of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now