LibertyBell Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, I just saw the new Euro monthlies. Another winter with a wall of -EPO/+PNA blocking. The Euro monthlies highest skill scores are with the EPO/PNA. But for some reason, the skill scores are lower on the Atlantic side with the NAO/AO phases. Isn't the NAO/AO much harder to predict? this is from OSU: This is another paper about NAO prediction. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-00353-y Most important factors they found were fall Barents/Kara Sea Ice, fall wave 1 stratospheric disturbances and fall north Atlantic SST configuration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 rain shield really broke up-only about .05 here for the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Euro is frigid towards the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 23 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro is frigid towards the end of the run If only now the cold can lock in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 On November 5, 2018 at 12:43 PM, LibertyBell said: Chris how long is the cold weather coming up next weekend supposed to last? Good question. It looks like the middle portion of November will be colder than average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 The Euro Day 10 is a snowstorm run forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 35 minutes ago, bluewave said: Good question. It looks like the middle portion of November will be cold. These November -EPO cold shots since 2013 featured the first freeze and trace of snow for NYC. Yes I see talk of mid November snow in a few subforums lol. The question is will it just be a trace or might we see something more alone the lines of November 2012? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: No frost here in SW Nassau and the lowest we got to so far was 38. I should have clarified that I was talking about SE Nassau. Although there isn’t too much of a diffence in density between the two your proximity to the city heat island definitely keeps you a few degrees warmer on radiational cooling nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I should have clarified that I was talking about SE Nassau. Although there isn’t too much of a diffence in density between the two your proximity to the city heat island definitely keeps you a few degrees warmer on radiational cooling nights. Yes you guys are lucky I look at Farmingdale temps and they are always around 5 degrees colder than us. Sometimes we have the rare radiational cooling night (usually with snowcover) where we are up to 10 degrees colder than JFK and more in line with Farmingdale temps. That kind of night (minus the snowcover) actually happened in late October 2016 when we were in the upper 20s here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Cleaned up...back to your regularly scheduled viewing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Cleaned up...back to your regularly scheduled viewing. F-ing Pam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Three great winters had heavy rains around this time of the month...1947, 1963, 1977...1977 had 9" in two days. ..one bad winter with a deluge during the same period is 1972... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 6, 2018 Author Share Posted November 6, 2018 Any severe threat looks like it has diminished for our area according to the SPC. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Another wet day yesterday with 0.35". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 48degs., or just about NORMAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Eps and gefs show a snowy outcome for the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 At 8 am, a cold front was pressing eastward. Rain was again starting to fall in the Middle Atlantic region where 2018 has been among the wettest years on record. By year's end, Baltimore and Reading will likely have established new annual precipitation records. Other locations could have among their 10 wettest years on record. Select Annual Precipitation Totals (through 11/6 8 am): Allentown: 54.74” (9th wettest year on record) Baltimore: 59.14” (3rd wettest year on record) Bridgeport: 48.01” (11th wettest year on record) Harrisburg: 55.83” (4th wettest year on record) Islip: 50.20” (15th wettest year on record) New York City: 52.31” (29th wettest year on record) Newark: 45.22” (36th wettest year on record) Philadelphia: 47.30” (31st wettest year on record) Poughkeepsie: 47.57” (13th wettest year on record) Reading: 58.10” (2nd wettest year on record) Richmond: 56.03” (9th wettest year on record) Scranton: 52.87” (3rd wettest year on record) Washington, DC: 55.15” (6th wettest year on record) Wilmington, NC: 90.21” (wettest year on record; old record: 83.65”, 1877) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 6, 2018 Author Share Posted November 6, 2018 Picked up 0.26" of rain yesterday with more on the way today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Boy, I can't wait for summer. I'd rather stick to the ridiculously humid summer than freeze six month out of the year! 10-15 degrees below average next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 1 minute ago, CarLover014 said: Boy, I can't wait for summer. I'd rather stick to the ridiculously humid summer than freeze six month out of the year! 10-15 degrees below average next week. I hear Florida's nice this time of year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 3 hours ago, CIK62 said: Next 8 days averaging 48degs., or just about NORMAL. Will have to see if the back 5 erase the front 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, TriPol said: I hear Florida's nice this time of year.... When isn't it nice down there, other than the occasional tropical system? Which reminds me, family is coming up from there this weekend. Let the complaining begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Why you should never ever use the CFS for anything. Here is it`s miss from 1 week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 1 minute ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Why you should never ever use the CFS for anything. Here is it`s miss from 1 week out. I was looking at the GFS from 10 November to 18 November. A little far out, and i hope i see more red than blue/purple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Just now, CarLover014 said: I was looking at the GFS from 10 November to 18 November. A little far out, and i hope i see more red than blue/purple Here is it`s new week 2 forecast , this will bust worse than last weeks week 2. It`s not just the weeklies Every model sees what`s coming before we moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Surprised at the lack of any flood watches given the highly saturated ground and high local rivers and streams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Surprised at the lack of any flood watches given the highly saturated ground and high local rivers and streams. Especially with what East Pennsylvania got the past few days. Hopefully this squall line will be moving at a good clip and we get less than an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 The CFS literally shows the opposite of what's going to happen, it's unbelievable how inaccurate it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: Especially with what East Pennsylvania got the past few days. Hopefully this squall line will be moving at a good clip and we get less than an inch This is a bit more than just a squall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 A little heads up for those in the interior and all the way into New England your seasons 1st snowstorm is on the way next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.