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bluewave

October 27 2018 Major East Coast Storm

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25 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

 

We'll see how the new drainage/flood preventing system they put in over the summer on guy Lombard ave works.Thats the worse spot in freeport.

The worst spot is a couple blocks west of there but yea it's bad there too   

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5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes this really is unprecedented in terms of the wild swings in weather we have now.  What I find absolutely amazing is with how frigid the 1870-1920 period was, we had zero measurable October snow in that period at Central Park (or at least none that was 1 inch or higher.)  So it's pretty mindblowing that in 2011 in October you could get something that you never got during the frigid 1870-1920 period!  A period during which NYC consistently averaged over 30 inches of snow!

 

 

NYC averaging nearly 35" annually since 2000 in the times of the torch. The 2011 storm was a fluke that is all IMO. The Atlantic was still warm in October in that era too. 

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4 hours ago, Dan76 said:

 

We'll see how the new drainage/flood preventing system they put in over the summer on guy Lombard ave works.Thats the worse spot in freeport.

It’s not going to help at all! How do you stop flooding that’s coming from an overall rise in water levels! We aren’t talking about fresh water flooding where increasing drainage helps to allow outflow. The only thing you can do to prevent salt water flooding is to either berm and dike an entire area (think New Orleans) or raise the entire elevation. That’s exactly what was done in south Merrick through Wantagh. When those large developments were created in the 60s they filled in marsh land and raised the elevation to an average of 5’. So despite being closer to the bay then say my neighborhood they experienced less flooding during sandy. None of those homes, and we are talking thousands between the 3 towns need to be raised currently as they did not flood. Smart engineering.

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3 hours ago, Dan76 said:

Crappy pic from march 2010 end of woodcleft (Bay house gone from sandy)

042.JPG

Only 4 times I've seen water overtop that spot.   Otherwise it comes up from the sewers and overflows on the canals.

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5 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Only 4 times I've seen water overtop that spot.   Otherwise it comes up from the sewers and overflows on the canals.

That is the same thing that happens in Broad Channel, water comes up quick through the sewers. 

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4 hours ago, Ericjcrash said:

NYC averaging nearly 35" annually since 2000 in the times of the torch. The 2011 storm was a fluke that is all IMO. The Atlantic was still warm in October in that era too. 

Yeah but if you go decade by decade starting from 1870 I believe NYC averaged 30"+ every decade for 5 decades and the temperatures back then were like 5 degrees colder on average in the winter than they are now.  Going back to the early part of the nineteenth century NYC used to have consistent snowcover from November thru March.

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5 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

The RGEM continues to show a slower, longer lasting, more impactful storm.

Yes but it does not show anything close to the NAM that someone posted a few hours ago,,,,oh my where did that come from ?

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HEADLINE: Wind Advisory issued October 26 at 3:33AM EDT until October 27 at 12:00PM EDT by NWS New York City - Upton

DESCRIPTION: ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO NOON EDT SATURDAY...
The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Wind Advisory,
which is in effect from 1 AM to noon EDT Saturday.
* WINDS...East 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.
* TIMING...Late tonight through Saturday morning.
* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power
lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

INSTRUCTIONS: A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph,
or gusts of 46 to 57 mph, are expected or occurring. Winds this
strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile
vehicles, in open areas, and on elevated roads and bridges. Use
extra caution.

Issued By: NWS New York City - Upton (Long Island and New York City)

Note:

PERTH AMBOY area should look out for Near Major Flooding.     Seems all other sites are at just Moderate Flooding levels  around here.

The GEFS shows this system will have a short lifespan below 1000mb, starting near 10pm tonight and weakening Sat. AM as it passes us going northward into Canada.

----------

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8 hours ago, NycStormChaser said:

That is the same thing that happens in Broad Channel, water comes up quick through the sewers. 

Fwiw Upton is forecasting moderate flood stage in Freeport but the site I use still shows major.  

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19 minutes ago, MeteorologicalFan said:

Monticello should get some heavy wet snow if it wetbulbs tonight. It’s definitely colder than modeled

Rain is forecasted to Montreal.

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52 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Fwiw Upton is forecasting moderate flood stage in Freeport but the site I use still shows major.  

Looks like they blended the two models for now. High end moderate and low end major are only a few inches apart. We still have another few model runs to refine the current forecast.

sfas_plot.png.91616890e76d31510640de245900d16a.png

The higher NYHOPS is based off the NAM.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/269084760_Comparison_of_NYHOPS_Hydrodynamic_Model_SST_Predictions_with_Satellite_Observations_in_the_Hudson_River_Tidal_Estuarine_and_Coastal_Plume_Region

 

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42 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Fwiw Upton is forecasting moderate flood stage in Freeport but the site I use still shows major.  

I noticed that with their latest update. High end moderate is still bad for that area. Hopefully people move their vehicles 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Looks like they blended the two models for now. High end moderate and low end major are only a few inches apart. We still have another few model runs to refine the current forecast.

sfas_plot.png.91616890e76d31510640de245900d16a.png

The higher NYHOPS is based off the NAM.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/269084760_Comparison_of_NYHOPS_Hydrodynamic_Model_SST_Predictions_with_Satellite_Observations_in_the_Hudson_River_Tidal_Estuarine_and_Coastal_Plume_Region

 

Pretty impressive surge forecasted in Peconic.

 

sjweobs.png

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11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

NAM is quick-the storm is mostly done by 9-10am...drizzle/showers after that...

The 3K NAM also has more widespread wind gusts across most of the South Shore of Long Island, not just confined to the East end. 

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The NAM Increased on the high wind potential. It continues the convective look with the steep mid level lapse rates and elevated CAPE. Has a stronger LLJ that can mix down. The sounding below is for near or just south of the Suffolk coast Saturday morning.

SFC  999    -2  15.1  14.7  97  0.5  14.8  78  43 288.4 290.2 288.1 317.8 10.55
  2  950   423  11.5  11.4  99  0.1  11.4  85  65 288.9 290.5 286.8 314.0  8.95
  3  900   874  10.1   9.9  99  0.2  10.0 101  73 291.9 293.4 287.5 316.3  8.54
  4  850  1350  10.7  10.6  99  0.1  10.6 125  77 297.4 299.1 290.2 324.8  9.45

IMG_0293.thumb.PNG.ce5023760cbd52c6431761c380fb858c.PNG

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A lot of the 12Z hi-res has the convective look nearby in the morning.  Most are focused just S/E of the city.

This is obviously way over the top, but the HRRR has 80KT winds w/ this feature at JFK 12Z tomorrow.  There is a gravity wave signature showing up that is likely just convective feedback, but seeing that convective signal on a number of pieces of guidance to me suggests some local "surprises" in terms of excessive wind gusts early tomorrow.

image.thumb.png.b56a8274b19de4f91844ef54e7d61a7d.png

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Excavtly what I was thinking earlier in the week. The models are starting towards a potential damaging wind event for the coast. Systems this time of year with tropical origins tend to over produce wind wise. Another example is the October 96 nor’easter that brought wind gusts in the 70mph range and significant tree damage to the south shore of the island. I’m not saying we see those types of winds but local gusts into the 60s are possible, with more widespread gusts to around 50.

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So my parents are on a cruise ship that is scheduled to dock in Cape Liberty tomorrow morning. They're flying out "supposedly" at 3 p.m. from EWR.

With those winds - and not knowing Cape Liberty's port setup - can they actually dock a massive cruise ship in those projected winds? 

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5 minutes ago, canderson said:

So my parents are on a cruise ship that is scheduled to dock in Cape Liberty tomorrow morning. They're flying out "supposedly" at 3 p.m. from EWR.

With those winds - and not knowing Cape Liberty's port setup - can they actually dock a massive cruise ship in those projected winds? 

I'm sure they can

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

NAM is quick-the storm is mostly done by 9-10am...drizzle/showers after that...

It’s all by itself 

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