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stormtracker

Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

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1 hour ago, f2tornado said:

For perspective, Katrina was about 120 TJ at landfall and Sandy was around 140 TJ. Florence is seemingly increasing wind radii and IKE is likely increasing with time. 

Is this correct regarding the intensity of 'superstorm' Sandy, because other sources, including NOAA, give the kinetic energy including TS as topping out at 300+ terajoules

http://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/hwind/timeseries/IkeTimeSeries.html

because of the massive size of 'superstorm' Sandy. What's the reason for the discrepancy with the 140TJ figure, maybe because there could be differing definitions of kinetic energy

EDIT: Or, alternatively, talking about the kinetic energy 'at landfall' of Sandy as having been in Cuba... which is true but misleading because of the increased size after heading out into the Atlantic 

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Euro pretty consistent with 00Z - makes landfall actually, on Cape Fear around 10 am Friday, then scrapes along the SC coast down to Charleston over the next 48 hours.  Brutal for the coastline if this verifies.  

Edit: after taking a 48 hour ride SW right along the coast, impacting Myrtle Beach and then coming ashore again right on top of Charleston as a likely cat 1/2 storm, Florence then goes on an inland run towards Augusta, GA, then Asheville.  It's nearly identical to the 12Z GFS.  

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_3.png

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_5.png

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7 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Euro pretty consistent with 00Z - makes landfall actually, on Cape Fear around 10 am Friday, then scrapes along the SC coast down to Charleston over the next 48 hours.  Brutal for the coastline if this verifies.  

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_3.png

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_5.png

That would be over 48 hours straight of hurricane force winds in many places.... ughh that is terrible!

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21 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

New advisory out. Cat 3 now. 125mph winds and 948mb. Seems like this has a mind of it's own. It strengthened rapidly a day early. Nhc keeps forecasting an increase but it held steady and now weakened. Regardless storm surge and flooding will be extreme with this

Its peaked....been saying that for awhile now.

Not that that means much in the grand scheme of things...

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its peaked....been saying that for awhile now.

Not that that means much in the grand scheme of things...

I still have some concerns it could intensity tonight and tomorrow once that SW shear nose moves out and it goes over the Gulf Stream.  There was also less dry air visible on the WV sat when I looked this morning as it continued further west 

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

I still have some concerns it could intensity tonight and tomorrow once that SW shear nose moves out and it goes over the Gulf Stream.  There was also less dry air visible on the WV sat when I looked this morning as it continued further west 

Yes, there is still a small window.. you are correct.

We will see.

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26 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Euro pretty consistent with 00Z - makes landfall actually, on Cape Fear around 10 am Friday, then scrapes along the SC coast down to Charleston over the next 48 hours.  Brutal for the coastline if this verifies.  

Edit: after taking a 48 hour ride SW right along the coast, impacting Myrtle Beach and then coming ashore again right on top of Charleston as a likely cat 1/2 storm, Florence then goes on an inland run towards Augusta, GA, then Asheville.  It's nearly identical to the 12Z GFS.  

 

 

Pretty amazing consistency in track through landfall on NC, then the slow crawl to Charleston, then inland to Atlanta then Asheville for the Euro, UK and GFS.  After days of huge discrepancies after landfall, I'm not sure whether to believe it.  And the CMC is the same through about Charleston (then drifts down to Jacksonville as a weak looking TS).  

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26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its peaked....been saying that for awhile now.

Not that that means much in the grand scheme of things...

I honestly thought we could see some strengthening again but seems drier air around the storm and a somewhat disorganized inner core have kept this from happening. Seems like ever since that ewrc it just hasn't recovered well. Plus this is such a large storm so it's energy is being spread over a large area instead of focused at the core

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7 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

It looks like it on microwave imo

 

last24hrs.gif

 

4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Totally. Likely why we had a decrease in intensity. Thanks for that 

That loop ended 20 hours ago...

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Come on guys, @Hoosier mentioned it last night, please make sure you are posting up to date images. 

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Looking at satellite, there appears to be some southerly shear still affecting the storm.

Outflow is a bit restricted on the south side of the storm, with the southerly shear evident to the south as well.

This seems to have been a problem for the past 24-36hrs.

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9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Looking at satellite, there appears to be some southerly shear still affecting the storm.

Outflow is a bit restricted on the south side of the storm, with the southerly shear evident to the south as well.

This seems to have been a problem for the past 24-36hrs.

If anything I think it’s been decreasing in the last couple of hours. Outflow appears to be improving on the southern side. 

I think the NHC forecast of 145 seems reasonable. Heading into an area we’re OHC extends to much greater depths. A storm this size outside of the deep tropics quickly upwells cooler water. So the increased depths the next 24 hours should induce strengthening. 

Then once it crosses over the Gulf Stream shelf waters will induce fairly rapid weakening. This thing isn’t going to be charging at and through the coast like Hugo and Hazel which had little if any time to weaken. 

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This scenario if probably more costly in terms of damage than a tightly wound cat 4 or even 5.
I'm glad someone actually said it. It may not end up this way but this is currently defying the simplicity of the SS scale in that it's likely presenting a "worse" overall situation. Massive wind field and slow movement to boot plus there is ample evidence to argue that it could still do some strengthening.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

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My apologies. I didn't pay attention to time stamp. Almost looks like the eyewall is open to the ese. Definitely a disorganized inner core. I do think the deeper OHC could induce strengthening if it's inner core can reorganize 

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Just now, StormChaser4Life said:

My apologies. I didn't pay attention to time stamp. Almost looks like the eyewall is open to the ese. Definitely a disorganized inner core. I do think the deeper OHC could induce strengthening if it's inner core can reorganize 

vortext message posted an hour ago

F. Eye Character: Open in the southeast

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5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

My apologies. I didn't pay attention to time stamp. Almost looks like the eyewall is open to the ese. Definitely a disorganized inner core. I do think the deeper OHC could induce strengthening if it's inner core can reorganize 

indeed, but I think that microwave may have an issue as well.  in the later frames there is an issue that is clearly visible and may be impacting the visual interpretation:

image.png.9fd535970962149aa48bc3dad97a8999.png

GOES imagery not nearly as bad of an open eyewal:

image.png.16723417f1849b126da9cbb75066a108.png

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20 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

If anything I think it’s been decreasing in the last couple of hours. Outflow appears to be improving on the southern side. 

Shear is definitely still an issue, in addition to some dry air entertainment too as seen on WV.

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Not sure how upwelling would be an issue given its speed. I saw that more of an issue as it gets to the coast and slows in much shallower water. The shear and dry air make sense. Might see further weakening. This has been an utter nightmare to forecast

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microwave still seems to be fading...I'd guess there is likely no room now for further strengthening.  The big story will still be the shear size of the windfield and stall along the coast along with heavy rainfall.

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