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stormtracker

Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

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Hello.  Your friendly Administration here.  How's everybody?  Good?  Great.  So here's the deal:

We are now in storm mode. What does that mean?   It means thing are getting serious and it's time for threads to be on point, topical with GOOD information and zero banter, cross talk and well...no sh*t posts.   Believe it or not, there are guest viewers who look to this thread for good, solid information on the storm. So, in this thread:

-No banter

-No cross talk

If you see your posts disappearing, you should probably try to make better posts.  All off topic posts and clutter will be deleted or moved to the banter thread.    All mods and storm mode mods are instructed to be pretty brutal and strict.   Ok guys, enjoy and if you are in the Carolinas and VA, BE SAFE.

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I ran the HMON-full and HWRF-full.  Both have land full at the far north portion of the SC coast.  One model takes the storm WSW and slows it down, the other goes WNW at a little bit faster clip.  I think climatology favors the WNW route.  

Regarding the terrible-izing going on in these threads, Godzilla is not coming.  Storm strength will be high-4 to a brief lowend-5 for a couple of days at sea.   By the time it makes LF, sheer may take it down to a low-3.   Wind will not be the killer, torrential flooding will be the risk and power failures from trees coming out of softened ground.   Deaths should be largely preventable if people listen.

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15 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

The post landfall track on the 18z FV3 is epic.  Also big dump in eastern NC and SE VA.

Got a link or image?

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1 minute ago, SN_Lover said:

Florence does not look good on WV or IR. Going into a area of very strong shear and dry air...

imageproxy.php?img=&key=20fe2b78d4e66dff

shear.JPG

dry.JPG

Yea I noticed that. Was that even forecasted? A lot of convection has collapsed on the edges and the eye has a chunky look

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18Z HWRF is notably slower and further northeast for landfall now -- matching the HMON. Uncertainty now abounds on what happens after landfall as steering collapses.

Some southwesterly vertical wind shear is likely by this point, making me think the vortex will tend to favor turning a bit more poleward. It's not out of the question that it may be a bit of a struggle to get it onshore as frictional torquing and shear try and oppose landfall for a while.

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Sure.  Just be "carefull"

I am, "respectful" as I live on the coast, If I post Obs/video is it ok? Let's keep "politics" outta this seriously.. 

I really respect  you despite being banned on the other side.. 

This is about WEATHER.. 

Peace, (lets make a truce).. 

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Careful with that shear product. Some of that is contaminated due to storm outflow. Actual shear is only about 5 knots right now. There's a bit more on the southeastern side of the circulation (you can see the outflow restriction there) and that might be responsible for part of the more poleward motion than expected in the last several hours.

Edit: The shear product lags the TC center since it is only updated every so often. You can see where the TC center was actually analyzed at the time.

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5 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Careful with that shear product. Some of that is contaminated due to storm outflow. Actual shear is only about 5 knots right now. There's a bit more on the southeastern side of the circulation (you can see the outflow restriction there) and that might be responsible for part of the more poleward motion than expected in the last several hours.

Edit: The shear product lags the TC center since it is only updated every so often. You can see where the TC center was actually analyzed at the time.

I think the shear analysis was taken 1-2 hours ago. What about the dry air? 

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2 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Careful with that shear product. Some of that is contaminated due to storm outflow. Actual shear is only about 5 knots right now. There's a bit more on the southeastern side of the circulation (you can see the outflow restriction there) and that might be responsible for part of the more poleward motion than expected in the last several hours.

Thank you for the common sense response. Cantore talked about that this morning, you’re talking about a monster hurricane with a large pressure gradient so the outflow is going to be quite vigorous. This hurricane should not see any noticeable shear until she comes in on approach. The main question is how big and intense will it get prior to that?

Reminds me a lot of Katrina, grows to be an intense and massive cane that despite weakening upon landfall the effects of it were entirely Category 5 level 

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Not really much of an issue. There's some dry-moating going on due to internal processes (perhaps the start of an ERC since it appears there might be a secondary wind max trying to form further out).

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13 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

18Z HWRF is notably slower and further northeast for landfall now -- matching the HMON. Uncertainty now abounds on what happens after landfall as steering collapses.

Some southwesterly vertical wind shear is likely by this point, making me think the vortex will tend to favor turning a bit more poleward. It's not out of the question that it may be a bit of a struggle to get it onshore as frictional torquing and shear try and oppose landfall for a while.

I guess the million dollar question would be what wins. The angular momentum or the HP in the Atlantic.

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Can someone explain why more models are showing a loop? This is the latest 00z (not sure if this is the correct form to ask in)70914c0273845c06bc08eae454568f47.jpg

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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Secondary wind max definitely showing up on that last pass. The wind max is out a ways, so this one may take quite some time to contract. The bad thing is that this is going to significantly increase the wind radii.

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1 minute ago, csnavywx said:

Secondary wind max definitely showing up on that last pass. The wind max is out a ways, so this one may take quite some time to contract. The bad thing is that this is going to significantly increase the wind radii.

The HWRF picked up on this well. Plus all guidance showed a leveling off in the intensity tonight or even a slight increase in pressure. Thought it was just noise but it appears to be occurring.

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Movement appears to have a NW vector to it.  In addition, some of the latest tropical models are more NE of the official track.  Possible influence of the disturbance that flared up near the gulf earlier.  That could help push it more N.

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4 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Secondary wind max definitely showing up on that last pass. The wind max is out a ways, so this one may take quite some time to contract. The bad thing is that this is going to significantly increase the wind radii.

Looks like the latest vortex message has an open eyewall now. Honestly, I would have preferred the ERC happening as close to landfall as possible so the inner core doesn't recover. 

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 0:58Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302 
Storm Number & Year: 06 in 2018
Storm Name: Florence (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 15 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 0:40:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25.59N 61.89W
B. Center Fix Location: 496 statute miles (798 km) to the SSE (159°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,613m (8,573ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 945mb (27.91 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 180° at 11kts (From the S at 13mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 106kts (122.0mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles to the NE (49°) of center fix at 0:37:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 131° at 117kts (From the SE at 134.6mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NE (49°) of center fix at 0:36:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 92kts (105.9mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the SW (221°) of center fix at 0:42:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 292° at 96kts (From the WNW at 110.5mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the SW (221°) of center fix at 0:42:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,053m (10,016ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 117kts (~ 134.6mph) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NE (49°) from the flight level center at 0:36:30Z
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1 minute ago, csnavywx said:

The tendency is restrengthening after the completion of an EWRC, especially since it will be in ideal conditions over the next 48 hours.

Yea ample warm water and low shear. Just depends on how long this takes and if any dry air disrupts the inner core as it reorganizes 

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