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NCSNOW

Hurricane Florence

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3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

GFS scenario is actually the best I have seen. It stalls the storm just far enough offshore to miss the worst effects of the eyewall and torrential rain. Still offshore by 120 but bearing down on Charleston as what would be a much weakened system. 

No way that was horrible for the beaches the thing will have a 20-30 mile wide eye the entire coast from Bogue Banks to ILM would be in extreme conditions and then the surge would push in and stay there since the storm isn't moving so the winds don't change and let the water out.....

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1 minute ago, AsheCounty48 said:

On this run, the NC coast still gets obliterated with rain and surge, and since the Storm moves SW, it goes over hot gulf stream waters and re intensifies quickly. Take verbatim, it's an awful run.

It wont intensify much if any due to upwelling and it is still the best run I have seen for NC coasts compared to EURO and other solutions.

 11 inches of rain compared to 35 on the EURO.

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Just now, downeastnc said:

No way that was horrible for the beaches the thing will have a 20-30 mile wide eye the entire coast from Bogue Banks to ILM would be in extreme conditions and then the surge would push in and stay there since the storm isn't moving so the winds don't change and let the water out.....

Yes it would be horrible BUT not as horrible as other model solutions..

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Just now, Wow said:

Florence decided really late to pull a Hugo track.

She's having an identity crisis. I dunno about any of that, but since the GFS hasn't been consistent, 0z will be probably completely different.

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Stalling off the coast and slowly moving down it is much better than slamming onshore. Worst of the winds stay off shore and between land interaction and upwelling, the storm will weaken quickly. This is the best scenario for much of us, especially my area. 

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This run would be bad for Blue Ridge areas for flooding after it finally decides to come inland. I am growing more concerned for that area with each model run..

 

 

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I'm not buying that much weakening - Google Maps suggests the center would be ~75 miles offshore. You get this, plus storm surge stacking up from the slow southwest movement and that makes a mess of trouble and that's before it dumps on upstate SC and NC.

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2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

This run would be bad for Blue Ridge areas for flooding after it finally decides to come inland. I am growing more concerned for that area with each model run..

 

 

Good thing here is it'll be accelerating as it comes further inland since it stalled earlier.

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5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

This run would be bad for Blue Ridge areas for flooding after it finally decides to come inland. I am growing more concerned for that area with each model run..

 

 

Yes that enhanced flow would wring out a lot of moisture in the southern and eastern escarpment areas. 

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5 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Stalling off the coast and slowly moving down it is much better than slamming onshore. Worst of the winds stay off shore and between land interaction and upwelling, the storm will weaken quickly. This is the best scenario for much of us, especially my area. 

 I would think even in a weaker state, a track like that would pile up the water quite a bit as winds and the coast would work together to funnel/push the water up. Pretty astonishing change of events though  given the incredible model agreement yesterday showing it heading into nc.  Would be pretty wild to say the least to see a southwest moving hurricane along the southeast coast. 

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Can someone explain why sitting off the coast by 100 miles means it weakens?

 

I remember Harvey last year absolutely crawling onto the coast and bombing out while it was just off shore?

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19 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

It wont intensify much if any due to upwelling and it is still the best run I have seen for NC coasts compared to EURO and other solutions.

 11 inches of rain compared to 35 on the EURO.

Not really more like a "steady-State" IMOP.. Will be Fed from South to North By 86F Warm Gulf Stream Water(s) 

WHILE it sliding south-South West,

In effect being "spoon fed", with Steady fresh Fuel... Say combined southward/SW motion and the 8-10 MPH Hot gulf stream waters, comin Northward.. Well Not much "upwelling" What-so-ever.. 

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6 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Can someone explain why sitting off the coast by 100 miles means it weakens?

 

I remember Harvey last year absolutely crawling onto the coast and bombing out while it was just off shore?

 Upwelling, dry air entrainment from nearby land, increased sheer, there’s several mechanisms at play.

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46 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

GFS scenario is actually the best I have seen. It stalls the storm just far enough offshore to miss the worst effects of the eyewall and torrential rain. Still offshore by 120 but bearing down on Charleston as what would be a much weakened system. 

Yes, the simulated IR Satellite has a large cluster/blob of rather disorganized convection due to shear

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As a reminder, the GFS is uncoupled from the ocean, meaning that a hurricane can sit and spin for an indefinite period and be fed with basically a static, inexhaustible energy source. These GFS runs showing Flo sitting in one place for like 48+ hours are immediately suspect for that reason alone.

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Gonna need more popcorn.  Can someone summarize what is happening with Isaac as Flo creeps south?  If she hangs around a couple of days she will certainly start feeling the interaction with Isaac to the south.  That could keep her down south, no?

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3 minutes ago, mjwise said:

As a reminder, the GFS is uncoupled from the ocean, meaning that a hurricane can sit and spin for an indefinite period and be fed with basically a static, inexhaustible energy source. These GFS runs showing Flo sitting in one place for like 48+ hours are immediately suspect for that reason alone.

yep that plus the length of time is stalls, the SW track, the loops etc should all be taken with a large grain of salt.....more realistic IMO would be a slow crawl WNW/NW onshore like the Ukie and Icon have....

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13 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

yep that plus the length of time is stalls, the SW track, the loops etc should all be taken with a large grain of salt.....more realistic IMO would be a slow crawl WNW/NW onshore like the Ukie and Icon have....

Significant left/anti-poleward motion has never been observed with an Atlantic major hurricane at the mid latitudes in the 160+ year historical record either, so there's that too. Even getting to shore is an uncommon achievement for storms at this latitude.

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4 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Is there an intermediate advisory at 8pm?

I think so yes. I suspect the NHC will continue to make slight incremental changes to the cone and positions to account for the model run changes.

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