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NCSNOW

Hurricane Florence

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If ever we need a wx thread to bust,let's hope this is the one. We've all been taking a deep breath with the steering pattern that's setup shop over the SE coast during peak Hurricane Season. As it stands now Florence is being forecasted to do the unthinkable after getting so far north out in the Atlantic and make an unprecedented b-line right into the SE coast. Every model is showing a Carolina Coastal hit as of right now. The things to keep and eye on are the intensity, landfall point obviously and forward speed as well as motion after landfall. Does it drag stall like Floyd or is it on afterburners like Hugo and Hazel. This has potential to affect alot of inland communities more so than just the normal coastal plain swipe, we often see with northerly moving storms that landfall on our coast. 

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pretty concerning as i wouldn't be shocked to see the ridge even stronger than modeled.  recurvature sure seems less and less likely at this point.  

also, with the expected forward speed over the warm gulf stream as it approaches the coast, would not be surprised to see minimal weakening prior to any possible landfall.

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1 minute ago, NCSNOW said:

Euro looks further south than 0z so far. See what happens

I'm actually getting the feeling this one might just plow west right into SC and never make that turn. There is so e troughiness that could weaken the ridge but will it be enough?

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Euro at 72hr: Cant get pics to post. See thumbnail & Yea Shaggy I agree. Of course back here , way inland a SC coastal hit is how we expierence the most from landfalling Canes or the leftovers. I caution everyone to take notice of the forward speed at landfall. Its been pretty fast in my opinion on the models today. That compounds the problems not only at the coast, but inland as well.

 

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2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

looks like a sc landfall incoming on the euro.  right over the gulf stream too.

Yeah hugo redux. If the euro holds it path and gfs its and they blend the 2 then sc/NC are in trouble.

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Looks like the model cone today is from Savannah (CMC) to just north of Wilmington (GFS), with Euro in the middle. Of course, still 7 days out.  South trends continue.  We might see a lot of ensembles in GA and FL.

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One major concern I have with #Florence is that where ever it ends up making landfall there is potential for the storm to slow down significantly. Steering currents will be weak. Heavy rain may be a big concern where it makes landfall, assuming it does. Just one aspect to watch

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I'd expect all 3 to be hurricanes by next week ... Florence, Helene and Isaac. Something in the Gulf may be brewing as well -- and even if it is not named -- could be a heavy, tropical rain event for Texas. (ECMWF simulated water vapor satellite (https://weathermodels.com )

Dmg01aLV4AERcU_.jpg

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9 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

I'd expect all 3 to be hurricanes by next week ... Florence, Helene and Isaac. Something in the Gulf may be brewing as well -- and even if it is not named -- could be a heavy, tropical rain event for Texas. (ECMWF simulated water vapor satellite (https://weathermodels.com )

Dmg01aLV4AERcU_.jpg

Right on time for my grass sowing project. Course the seed is liable to end up on a riverbank down east somewhere.

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Over 3 days straight of tropical rain per euro. Forget the hurricane force wind gust it gets all the way up into triad along with the tornado spin ups. That much rain would not bolld well for alot of folks. 

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Many areas in western NC have already had a surplus of rain this year. A stalling hurricane plus strong wind gusts over this area would be terrible. Let's hope against that outcome.

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Just now, NCSNOW said:

Over 3 days straight of tropical rain per euro. Forget the hurricane force wind gust it gets all the way up into triad along with the tornado spin ups. That much rain would not bolld well for alot of folks. 

I agree, could/would be devastating with this scenario! 

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2 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

We better hope that the two possible systems trailing Florence don't develop and follow a similar path. One of my earliest weather memories was in 1955 when hurricane Connie went through and was quickly followed by hurricane Dianne. The flooding was horrendous

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Just now, jburns said:

We better hope that the two possible systems trailing Florence don't develop and follow a similar path. One of my earliest weather memories was in 1955 when hurricane Connie went through and was quickly followed by hurricane Dianne. The flooding was horrendous

You're right! A lot on the table here!! 

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4 minutes ago, jburns said:

We better hope that the two possible systems trailing Florence don't develop and follow a similar path. One of my earliest weather memories was in 1955 when hurricane Connie went through and was quickly followed by hurricane Dianne. The flooding was horrendous

Or more recently, Dennis/Floyd in 99

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