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Winter 2018-19 Is Coming


WxUSAF
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8 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If we get a weak to moderate west based El Nino we'll at least have the ingredients in place.  That's half the battle in these parts.  There's nothing worse than wasting 2/3rds of our prime weeks in December and January with nothing but day 15 threats go poof as they draw closer.

Looks like 3.4 going in reverse while the Eastern regions are LaNina like still. 

Seems from other forums and mets warming to resume in the West Pac in August. 

I have read that a weak EL Nino is likely maybe moderate but too early to tell about that still. 

 

 

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On 7/19/2018 at 1:02 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

If we get a weak to moderate west based El Nino we'll at least have the ingredients in place.  That's half the battle in these parts.  There's nothing worse than wasting 2/3rds of our prime weeks in December and January with nothing but day 15 threats go poof as they draw closer.

You will get a west based mod Nino. You're not going to sleep much from early November to mid April. You'll be tracking snowstorm after snowstorm after snowstorm after snowstorm.

People in the Mid Atlantic are going to be sick and tired of shoveling snow by New Years Eve 2018/2019. That will be just the appetizer. Wait til January 2019 gets going. Feb and Morch are going to be record setting, you will need the National Guard just to get out of the house from those monstrous drifts.

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6 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

@mitchnick where are you?

 

There are some logical relationships that have this scenario somewhat more plausiable this year.

Looking forward to the continued drop in solar activity as we near the solar minimum. Of note as well, is a somewhat different summer up North this year. 

 

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Things look good right now. I'm cautiously optimistic. But it's way too soon to feel excited. If things still look good come October into November I'll get more interested. 

I thought I would throw out some possibly relevant D.C. snowfall climo data regarding the recent snow drought and our prospects ahead.

This is not meant to start an argument and is in no way meant to antagonize anyone. Everyone is entitled to feel any way they want about the weather. But I feel like the expectations might not be in line with our reality. The winters of 2016-17 & 2017-18 produced a measly 3.4" and 7.8" for a 2 year average of 5.6". They sucked. But it was not in any way an unusual 2 year period. 

Going back 21 years we have had 4 other such periods now that we're similar or worse. 

1996-97 & 1997-98  3.4" avg

2000-01 & 2001-02. 5.3" avg

2007-08 & 2008-09. 6.2" avg

2011-12 @ 2012-13. 2.6" avg

So we have had 5 periods in 20 years where we received significantly below average snowfall in back to back years 

And they have occurred at fairly regular intervals.  2 years, 5 years, 2 years, and 3 years apart  

So we typically have such a period every 2-5 years and after 3 straight above average years 2014-16 we were very much due.

Good news is that following 3 previous periods we had a historically great winter.  2003, 2010, 2014.  

So the cyclical trends might be in our favor. But if we do score some good winters ahead (And I think we will) keep in mind that another 2 year suck fest is highly likely in only a few more years and it's not unusual or a sign the snow gods have forsaken us...it's just our climo. 

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I know others have said its just coincidence and no real correlation... but every 3 to 4 winters we always seem to have a "big" snowstorm of at least or around a foot of snow in the region.  Years being 1979, 1983, 1987, (nothing between 1988 and 1992) 1993, 1996, 2000, 2003, 2006, 2009-2010, 2013, 2016... 2019?

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On 7/19/2018 at 9:07 PM, Jebman said:

This is going to be one of the best winters ever, simply because I will be out of state lol. Washington DC will end up with a total of 7 feet of snow on this upcoming season. Bank on it.

You are great and what you did here will be missed

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2 minutes ago, das said:

ok, thanks.  I hope he is/remains well.  His contributions to the community were excellent.

I think mappy would probably know more fwiw... but yeah I think he just needed a break -- I think we all did at times with the way the winter went around here lol.  I hope he comes back for the winter, but I dunno if he will

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17 minutes ago, yoda said:

I think mappy would probably know more fwiw... but yeah I think he just needed a break -- I think we all did at times with the way the winter went around here lol.  I hope he comes back for the winter, but I dunno if he will

i know as much as what has been stated here. he asked for his account to be closed. i think randy denied it though

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