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WxUSAF

Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

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2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

This is way later than we usually start this thread.

Ironically we have the best set up for a good winter in years att but I think people are just still being guarded after the last couple duds. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Ironically we have the best set up for a good winter in years att but I think people are just still being guarded after the last couple duds. 

Skepticism is always warranted, but the current and forecast SST anomalies looks NOICE.

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Ironically we have the best set up for a good winter in years att but I think people are just still being guarded after the last couple duds. 

Was just looking at it this morning thinking things were looking up. Thought about posting something about it but still pretty early and have seen things go in the crapper too often to have a great deal of confidence. Fingers crossed though on my end that we see a semblance of this in 2 months or so.

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4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Skepticism is always warranted, but the current and forecast SST anomalies looks NOICE.

 

3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Was just looking at it this morning thinking things were looking up. Thought about posting something about it but still pretty early and have seen things go in the crapper too often to have a great deal of confidence. Fingers crossed though on my end that we see a semblance of this in 2 months or so.

It can easily go wrong. Either the sst pattern shifts or we just get unlucky. Not every good pattern necessarily produces. But I would much rather be where we are now then where we were att the last few years. 

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13 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

That's the truth. And it's also the first time in many years that we have any potential long-lead favorable indices.

I hope...for ALL of us. :p

11 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Ironically we have the best set up for a good winter in years att but I think people are just still being guarded after the last couple duds. 

Who could blame us? The last two years were a catastrophe. Two years ago I thought we couldn’t possibly do any worse and then I was proven a fool less than a year later. 

The hell of last season forced me from my home and put me into early reaper retirement lol.

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I hope...for ALL of us. :p

Who could blame us? The last two years were a catastrophe. Two years ago I thought we couldn’t possibly do any worse and then I was proven a fool less than a year later. 

The hell of last season forced me from my home and put me into early reaper retirement lol.

You wouldn't have made it through the 70's. It was a pretty horrible stretch up until 79's PD1 blizzard. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/02/16/how-the-surprise-presidents-day-snowstorm-of-1979-advanced-the-science-of-forecasting/?utm_term=.cbc261c70b04

The only saving grace for me during this period was the fact I was to young to realize how bad it was and that there was no internet to research the numbers. It was only after the 79 storm that I began to realize that I had been missing out on my snow most of my childhood and teenage years.

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I'm psyched big time about this winter.  We're gonna get two nice Miller A storms in January and a nice December cold wave.

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I'm psyched big time about this winter.  We're gonna get two nice Miller A storms in January and a nice December cold wave.


when I get home I’m adding this to my sig and holding you to it

jokes aside this looks to be a good winter. had my first snow related dream last night, I blame this thread being started, hah.
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40 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm psyched big time about this winter.  We're gonna get two nice Miller A storms in January and a nice December cold wave.

If we get a helpful Nino, I expect a few shots in early- to mid-December, then a thaw from around Christmas to the third week of January or so. We then reload and make a run at a nice season as we go through February. Then we go mild as we head towards March.

Forecasting is easy.

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2 minutes ago, mattie g said:

If we get a helpful Nino, I expect a few shots in early- to mid-December, then a thaw from around Christmas to the third week of January or so. We then reload and make a run at a nice season as we go through February. Then we go mild as we head towards March.

Forecasting is easy.

It's the getting it right which is hard. ;)

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8 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm psyched big time about this winter.  We're gonna get two nice Miller A storms in January and a nice December cold wave.

Hmmm, time to go long on winter gear, road salt, brine , natural gas and snow shovels !!  

I agree with your optimism. Been waiting a while for this winter as some key players "seem" to be in our corner this  year. 

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11 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

... had my first snow related dream last night,...

 

Ah, the cutting edge of forecasting science.B)

But, I'm all for it. About as good as anything else at this point. Keep it coming.

This alleged nino has caught my eye too, along with some other things.

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On 7/15/2018 at 2:54 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

I hope...for ALL of us. :p

Who could blame us? The last two years were a catastrophe. Two years ago I thought we couldn’t possibly do any worse and then I was proven a fool less than a year later. 

The hell of last season forced me from my home and put me into early reaper retirement lol.

It was bad but the signs it was likely going to be bad were there at this point both years. I guess my "issue" with all the wailing the last 2 years was that we knew going in given the sst patterns that it was unlikely to be a good winter and snow would be scarce. But people were so whiny about it they practically ruined what snow we did get for themselves. When it's a Nina I just set my bar at "it's gonna SUCK" and then am happy with whatever scraps we get.  I reserve my total meltdowns for years like 2002 when we had high expectations and then got virtually nothing.   People expecting some big miller a snowbomb in a Nina were unrealistic and annoying when it didn't happen. 

 

There are ways this could go wrong. We are far from me getting excited yet. But things look way better now then leading into the last few winters when we were staring at a super Nino and 2 ninas at this point. I'll take the look now and roll with it over those anyday. 

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It was bad but the signs it was likely going to be bad were there at this point both years. I guess my "issue" with all the wailing the last 2 years was that we knew going in given the sst patterns that it was unlikely to be a good winter and snow would be scarce. But people were so whiny about it they practically ruined what snow we did get for themselves. When it's a Nina I just set my bar at "it's gonna SUCK" and then am happy with whatever scraps we get.  I reserve my total meltdowns for years like 2002 when we had high expectations and then got virtually nothing.   People expecting some big miller a snowbomb in a Nina were unrealistic and annoying when it didn't happen. 

95 - 96 was 22 years ago..... we were due.

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5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It was bad but the signs it was likely going to be bad were there at this point both years. I guess my "issue" with all the wailing the last 2 years was that we knew going in given the sst patterns that it was unlikely to be a good winter and snow would be scarce. But people were so whiny about it they practically ruined what snow we did get for themselves. When it's a Nina I just set my bar at "it's gonna SUCK" and then am happy with whatever scraps we get.  I reserve my total meltdowns for years like 2002 when we had high expectations and then got virtually nothing.   People expecting some big miller a snowbomb in a Nina were unrealistic and annoying when it didn't happen. 

 

There are ways this could go wrong. We are far from me getting excited yet. But things look way better now then leading into the last few winters when we were staring at a super Nino and 2 ninas at this point. I'll take the look now and roll with it over those anyday. 

I disagree a bit. My default certainly is that a Nina is going to suck, but heading into November and December I don't remember there being a particularly strong ENSO signal, at least one that warned of a coming disaster. I do agree though that the reaction to the catastrophe made the winter far worse, and it was already awful. 

I haven't even really thought of winter yet other than ENSO and that's because of how it impacts my tropical this fall. We're not in a bad spot and yes, despite moving north my passions lie with the people of the Mid-Atlantic. 

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3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I disagree a bit. My default certainly is that a Nina is going to suck, but heading into November and December I don't remember there being a particularly strong ENSO signal, at least one that warned of a coming disaster. I do agree though that the reaction to the catastrophe made the winter far worse, and it was already awful. 

I haven't even really thought of winter yet other than ENSO and that's because of how it impacts my tropical this fall. We're not in a bad spot and yes, despite moving north my passions lie with the people of the Mid-Atlantic. 

I guess it depends what expectations were and what evidence each person was looking at. I know both of the last two years by mid summer I was fairly pessimistic. After some teases in the spring the sst patterns had begun to degrade by now and signs of a Nina to some degree was showing imo.  By early fall most were down on the prospects of a good winter and I know around September or October most in the winter thread were saying we had to hope to get lucky. I posted some analogs that were fairly ugly around then too.  There was a brief moment of optimism when the AO looked like it might tank late November but when that turned out to be transient I know myself and bob both reverted to pessimism.  I just don't like to dwell on it and make it worse so when things look bad I expect it to suck and then hope for the best.  

There were some sources that were using some different metrics to predict a cold snowier winter so it's fair to say there were other perspectives.  I just know that overall ninas suck here 80% of the time so I don't set myself up for disappointment expecting a fluke.  Hope for it but don't expect it.  Plus some sources (JB) I've learned to just disregard as biased.  But depending on what people were paying attention too I guess others might have been more optimistic and that maybe led to their dispair.

eta: one thing last winter really drove home was the importance of the nao to snow in a Nina.  Going back through every post 1950 Nina there was only one 4" snow event without a -nao and other then that EVERY snowfall greater then 3" had some blocking help.  Last year we finally got one good snowfall when there was blocking.  The numbers are overwhelming.  If we have a Nina unless we get nao help it's not going to snow.  

 

 

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I don't think people were upset because they were expecting huge snowstorms. I think they were upset because there WERE huge snowstorms and they danced around us. The opportunities were there. The beaches had a legit blizzard. Areas along the Jersey Coast and north of there got a big storm or two. It was so close yet so far, which is where my frustration came from. If everyone was swinging and missing during a crappy pattern, that's not unexpected.

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5 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I don't think people were upset because they were expecting huge snowstorms. I think they were upset because there WERE huge snowstorms and they danced around us. The opportunities were there. The beaches had a legit blizzard. Areas along the Jersey Coast and north of there got a big storm or two. It was so close yet so far, which is where my frustration came from. If everyone was swinging and missing during a crappy pattern, that's not unexpected.

Bingo.

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3 hours ago, osfan24 said:

I don't think people were upset because they were expecting huge snowstorms. I think they were upset because there WERE huge snowstorms and they danced around us. The opportunities were there. The beaches had a legit blizzard. Areas along the Jersey Coast and north of there got a big storm or two. It was so close yet so far, which is where my frustration came from. If everyone was swinging and missing during a crappy pattern, that's not unexpected.

Dewey Beach, the new Boston 

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On 7/14/2018 at 11:07 AM, anotherman said:


Too early?


.

Winter is already here though, just not at our latitude. Insolation is declining every day and snowcover is at most a couple of weeks away from beginning it's inexorable advance south from Ellesmere Island and other birthing places in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. If anything it's too late, and June 21st would've been more appropriate. 

Disregarding speculation about this year's ENSO, we have some interesting signs across the board in the Atlantic domain, which has all but flipped from last year with strong trades and persistant + NAO. Would be interesting to see how analogs work out. 

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5 hours ago, osfan24 said:

I don't think people were upset because they were expecting huge snowstorms. I think they were upset because there WERE huge snowstorms and they danced around us. The opportunities were there. The beaches had a legit blizzard. Areas along the Jersey Coast and north of there got a big storm or two. It was so close yet so far, which is where my frustration came from. If everyone was swinging and missing during a crappy pattern, that's not unexpected.

I don't want to dredge up old business, just discussing, but that's part of Nina climo too and it's been pointed out before. I can't find it att but there was a Nina snowfall wrt climo map that shows the greatest negative departure is centered right over D.C. with higher probabilities of better snow wrt mean all around us. I can remember several ninas like that in my lifetime. So I guess that didn't shock me or phase me either. It makes sense too.  Typical Nina pattern.  Fast northern stream. Weak Stj. So northern stream systems race along and have trouble digging or phasing so they stay north with their main impact. Southern stream systems can impact to our south but get suppressed by the northern stream. And if something does phase its too late and hits east of us.  Mountains eat the clippers from the west. It's logical. So I don't act surprised when it happens. 

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23 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I don't want to dredge up old business, just discussing, but that's part of Nina climo too and it's been pointed out before. I can't find it att but there was a Nina snowfall wrt climo map that shows the greatest negative departure is centered right over D.C. with higher probabilities of better snow wrt mean all around us. I can remember several ninas like that in my lifetime. So I guess that didn't shock me or phase me either. It makes sense too.  Typical Nina pattern.  Fast northern stream. Weak Stj. So northern stream systems race along and have trouble digging or phasing so they stay north with their main impact. Southern stream systems can impact to our south but get suppressed by the northern stream. And if something does phase its too late and hits east of us.  Mountains eat the clippers from the west. It's logical. So I don't act surprised when it happens. 

You’re correct.  I saw the same map.  The tendency in La Niñas is for systems to track into the Lakes, be Miller Bs, or be way too flat and miss way south.  I don’t think the latter happens too often because CLT and ATL have massive negative departures in La Niña years (as massive as you can get when you average 5 and 3 respectively) but I guess occasionally they luck out with a squashed wave during a La Niña.  They did 3 times last winter in SC and GA.   Of course the location of the anomalies in the Pacific matters a ton.  I think some are overlooking that for this winter.  If the anomalies end up too far to the east, even in a weak El Niño it usually isn’t good for the NE or MA.   I think 06-07 was an east based weak El Niño if I remember right 

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20 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

You’re correct.  I saw the same map.  The tendency in La Niñas is for systems to track into the Lakes, be Miller Bs, or be way too flat and miss way south.  I don’t think the latter happens too often because CLT and ATL have massive negative departures in La Niña years (as massive as you can get when you average 5 and 3 respectively) but I guess occasionally they luck out with a squashed wave during a La Niña.  They did 3 times last winter in SC and GA.   Of course the location of the anomalies in the Pacific matters a ton.  I think some are overlooking that for this winter.  If the anomalies end up too far to the east, even in a weak El Niño it usually isn’t good for the NE or MA.   I think 06-07 was an east based weak El Niño if I remember right 

I don't disagree with the east based point but I don't think that's been missed at all. We have had several posts pointing out how we are rooting for a modoki event. Those are almost always good. East based weak to moderate ninos can go either way. Some are duds. Some have been good. But west based is by far better. Right now the jury is still out. There are some predictions of a west based event. But we won't know for sure how this evolves until the fall. 

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