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Bob Chill

March 20-21 Short Range Model Analysis

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5 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Not just that, Euro agrees with GFS that we switch to snow in the next 6 hours... and unlike mesos, it does not give us a lull.

It does lull though. Very light precip between 0z and probably 9z. The real show is the wee hours and all day tomorrow. Holy crap is that a comma head raking. Ratios will be over 10:1. No doubt in my mind. 

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Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

3-4" by sundown tonight on the euro. Weird

Yeah that’s going to bust. But tomorrow looks epic.

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah that’s going to bust. But tomorrow looks epic.

Yea, total maps are flawed and very deceiving. You an I could get maybe 1-2" before the show starts in the middle of the night. 

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17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It does lull though. Very light precip between 0z and probably 9z. The real show is the wee hours and all day tomorrow. Holy crap is that a comma head raking. Ratios will be over 10:1. No doubt in my mind. 

Argh servers. 

 

But yeah, you're right. I think the rates are just high enough to where it masks the lull that shows up in mesos. 

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Snowmaps are terribly flawed for the regions that haven't seen any accum snow yet. They shouldn't be posted. 

Yeah. There is something whacky about what it is doing with precip this evening. Radar alone tells us it is wrong. I am almost done with the first thump already.

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13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It does lull though. Very light precip between 0z and probably 9z. The real show is the wee hours and all day tomorrow. Holy crap is that a comma head raking. Ratios will be over 10:1. No doubt in my mind. 

Bob, what's the QPF for the 10:1 period you think?  I can't see sh*t.   And this board is killing me.  I've already contacted our tech guy.

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16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Snowmaps are terribly flawed for the regions that haven't seen any accum snow yet. They shouldn't be posted. 

For sure, but knock half off the euro and you’re still looking at 8-12” additional.

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9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Yeah. There is something whacky about what it is doing with precip this evening. Radar alone tells us it is wrong. I am almost done with the first thump already.

But most of the accumulated snow comes with part 2 late tonight and tomorrow after a lull.  

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Bob, what's the QPF for the 10:1 period you think?  I can't see sh*t.   And this board is killing me.  I've already contacted our tech guy.

At least 1” of liquid.

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

At least 1” of liquid.

That's pretty much all I need to know. Tomorrow's gonna rock. 

With the temp dropping tonight and our upcoming "lull", I wonder how much more impactful things become if we get hours of freezing drizzle. I'm slowly but steadily seeing my temp drop still. 

31.5/30

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

At least 1” of liquid.

I was going to say that just eyeballing, euro has you and me around 8" before things get nutty-good with another 12-18" after that.

So, I'll take my .75" of slop and just add 15.25" of powder and call it 16" 

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That's pretty much all I need to know. Tomorrow's gonna rock. 

With the temp dropping tonight and our upcoming "lull", I wonder how much more impactful things become if we get hours of freezing drizzle. I'm slowly but steadily seeing my temp drop still. 

31.5/30

The Euro rocks us with the CCB all day tomorrow.  It should be epic even if the cities if it's correct.  I'm starting to believe we could even make a run at double digits in the urban corridor. 

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