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March 20-21 Short Range Model Analysis


Bob Chill

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The 06z Swiss model caught me looking at the Euro and went all out to win me back.  Well done, Swiss model.  Still hugging it.

voQ5GhH.png

I'm not sure how seriously we should take that, but the 00z Swiss model run was similar to the 00z Euro run, except the Swiss model had less snow south of DC.

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That warm layer had me extra worried yesterday. It still worries me, but if we get some good convection or release of instability to enhance the synoptic scale lift tomorrow across the DGZ (as is being progged currently), then those fat dendrite aggregates will survive a shallow warm layer a lot easier.

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1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Didn't want to mention it myself and come out looking like a weenie but I can see the possibility. 2 Feet might be stretching it but a foot and a half is within the realm of possibility IMO. That said I am sticking with my thoughts of 6-12 for now for your region but I reserve the right to change that upwards after seeing the 12z.

I like the 6-10" call for my backyard. 

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28 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Hard to dislike this sounding tomorrow morning:

 

WSSCSI.thumb.png.3daf93b81c7bf8016a600f7a47cca29c.png

 

Note the weakly sheared, nearly unidirectional flow from 700-350mb, especially in the moist neutral to weakly unstable layer from 650-400mb. Definitely favorable for banded, convectively-enhanced snow. Or at the very least, very weakly stable, which tends to aid synoptic scale lift. In the case of released instability, lifted parcels will originate at a temperature from about -5 to -10C, meaning supercooled water is entrained into any updrafts that form. This means a mixed-phase cloud is possible that can produce charge separation. I'd say some thunder is possible tomorrow morning and mid-day if these soundings are correct.

Yeah, from the looks of that sounding I could see hints of a negative theta-e lapse rate between 750-500 MB. Given the degree of synoptic scale lift expected, I'm sure that potential instability will be tapped.

Accretion potential in the -5 to -10°C range does look sweet as you noted, as convection would certainly help. Also plenty of lift in the dendritic growth zone (deposition).

Given the degree of saturation, lift, and potential instability, we could certainly see one of my favorite microphysical phenomena -- "rime splintering". I always liked the term, which implies a fracturing of crystals on which more supercooled water droplets would adhere to. Like an explosion of wet, aggregate flakes. Pure bliss!

http://en.m.termwiki.com/EN/rime_splintering

 

 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

Yeah, from the looks of that sounding I could see hints of a negative theta-e lapse rate between 750-500 MB. Given the degree of synoptic scale lift expected, I'm sure that potential instability will be tapped.

Accretion potential in the -5 to -10°C range does look sweet as you noted, as convection would certainly help. Also plenty of lift in the dendritic growth zone (deposition).

Given the degree of saturation, lift, and potential instability, we could certainly see in of my favorite microphysical phenomena -- "rime splintering". I always liked the term, which implies a fracturing of crystals on which more supercooled water droplets would adhere to. Like an explosion of wet, aggregate flakes. Pure bliss!

http://en.m.termwiki.com/EN/rime_splintering

 

 

 

 

 

Dude, posts like this should be PPV in private rooms only. 

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3 minutes ago, mappy said:

I like the 6-10" call for my backyard. 

I'm going to bust very low I think. Round 1 looks to be working out. Wife says it's ripping snow at home. Already pushing 2". Round 2 looks like a thing of beauty and this trajectory upper low and slp pass usually gets us that upslope enhanced deathband thing we do so well. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

I'm going to bust very low I think. Round 1 looks to be working out. Wife says it's ripping snow at home. Already pushing 2". Round 2 looks like a thing of beauty and this trajectory upper low and slp pass usually gets us that upslope enhanced deathband thing we do so well. 

And to think, you needed bandaids on 9 out of 10 of your fingers to get to this point. 

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Mt. Holly WSW

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1009 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...Major Coastal Storm to Affect the Region Through Wednesday
Night...

.A pair of low pressure systems today will consolidate into one
major coastal storm late tonight and Wednesday. This is expected
to bring significant impacts to our region, starting with areas of
mixed precipitation today and tonight followed by significant
snowfall on Wednesday. Unnecessary travel Wednesday afternoon and
evening is strongly discouraged.

DEZ002>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ020>027-210215-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0007.180320T2200Z-180322T0600Z/
Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-
Caroline-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-
Including the cities of Dover, Georgetown, Rehoboth Beach,
Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, Denton, Jackson, Millville,
Hammonton, Cape May Court House, Ocean City, Atlantic City,
Long Beach Island, and Wharton State Forest
1009 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, with localized amounts up to 12
  inches, are expected. In addition, north to northeast winds
  will gust 30 to 45 mph at times with potential for stronger
  gusts near the coast.

[/quote]
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