Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    18,605
    Total Members
    14,841
    Most Online
    eloveday
    Newest Member
    eloveday
    Joined

March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Nothing better than a peaking blizzard during the day time. Nothing. 

Agree.  That said, the potential in Maine is for a lot to continue during the night as well.  But I'll take whatever I can get in the daytime!

5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

My area may be trapped in the exhaust zone between epic bands for the 2nd time in a week. 

You should hitch a ride to Pit2.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Well not all CDFs look like a perfect bell curve like I described.

Some have a big low end tail, but a sharp high end. Sometimes all models say rain and there is no CDF to work off of. It’s definitely not a fool proof system, but it can provide some windows into the guidance. 

It works best for large, widespread snow events.

So it is a true CDF based on models?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Chrisrotary12

Chrisrotary12

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

That's solid for SNE outside the berks. I think you missed the upslope potential though.

For some reason I never seem to take upslope into account.  Probably because I have always lived in the "coastal plain" and have never had to consider it.

4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

You are clearly not buying the big QPf numbers back into central New Hampshire and Western New England

No I am not.  Too many red flags.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They are useless to the real world. People want to know what will happen, not what has a 10% chance of happening.

Can't really argue.  However, most of the weenies here should be better educated than that, so when I see this morning's 7"/15"/22" for Farmington, I can salivate over that right end of the curve while expecting the  middle.  (Which if it verifies would push March over 30" for the 5th time in 20 years.)

Link to comment
Share on other sites
dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

For northern and western Maine, I might be/probably am too low.   But color me concerned about western zones doing more than just sucking exhaust from this thing.

Going to be some screw zones no doubt, Where those are and end up i'm guessing in is some of your flags.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, rimetree said:

Would like to just have one 12+ event this winter. We came close in the last event but too much rain at the onset. Thinking this is the last chance but I like my chances this morning.

 I'm with you, my last foot plus was March 2017.   They are a dime a dozen in E SNE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
717WeatherLover

717WeatherLover

Posted
Posted

I am a Central PA weather nutt looking for some advice from Bostonians here.  We are driving up to Boston this afternoon for my daughter to have surgery at MGH on Tuesday and scans and infusions on Wednesday.  Guess I am finally going to get to see my "big one" this winter, lol.  I figure if I can get to MGH Tuesday morning it can dump all day and even if we get stuck there overnight we will be able to get everything done.  My first question to the group is how well does the DOT keep the roads open during a storm?  Do the T's usually run through storms?  I prefer to drive in since my daughter will be recovering from anesthesia on the way home Tuesday but the Orient Heights station is not that far from the Hilton Garden Inn and we could do that in a pinch.  Suggestions?  Thank you my fellow weather warriors for your help!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, 717WeatherLover said:

I am a Central PA weather nutt looking for some advice from Bostonians here.  We are driving up to Boston this afternoon for my daughter to have surgery at MGH on Tuesday and scans and infusions on Wednesday.  Guess I am finally going to get to see my "big one" this winter, lol.  I figure if I can get to MGH Tuesday morning it can dump all day and even if we get stuck there overnight we will be able to get everything done.  My first question to the group is how well does the DOT keep the roads open during a storm?  Do the T's usually run through storms?  I prefer to drive in since my daughter will be recovering from anesthesia on the way home Tuesday but the Orient Heights station is not that far from the Hilton Garden Inn and we could do that in a pinch.  Suggestions?  Thank you my fellow weather warriors for your help!

DOT does a good job. Roads will be snow covered, but I would not expect 6" ruts on them. Just snow packed. The T will probably have some delays, but should be ok. I would not expect a huge issue in the city on the roads. Good luck with the surgery. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's the mid levels, and that is thanks to the interaction of the nrn and srn stream s/w's.

 

I dunno, I'm definitely not confident in big numbers at this time. I see a few Scooter flags that keep me in check for now. Yeah yeah....I know about banding and some lucky weenies who may get into it, but a wide area of 12-18+?? Not there yet.

It's so tough with mid level banding.  You are either in it or your not. 

Like what happened in SVT during the last one... wasn't Hippy in the upper valley like 8-10" but 20 miles north is 30-40".  Same with like Rutland VT area...a fraction of what happened a county south.  

Sort of like you need a forecast of 8-16" with local amounts to 30" lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, powderfreak said:

It's so tough with mid level banding.  You are either in it or your not. 

Like what happened in SVT during the last one... wasn't Hippy in the upper valley like 8-10" but 20 miles north is 30-40".  Same with like Rutland VT area...a fraction of what happened a county south.  

Sort of like you need a forecast of 8-16" with local amounts to 30" lol.

I just have this nagging feeling in the back of my head. But, I can afford to wait until 12z stuff rolls in to add confidence. Just not sold a wide area of 12-18+ like some have. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...