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March Mid/Long Range Disco 3


WxUSAF

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4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Bob Chill, any concerns for temps with the storm so close to the coast?

Maybe at the surface at the beginning. This isn't a setup that draws big altantic moisture  maritime air. Having confluence above us really locks in the mid levels. We might lose some at the beginning but once it gets going we're all good. Even SE of town. Don't compare this to other recent storms where temps fooked it all up. It's a much different setup leading in than we've seen recently. Blocking/confluence greatly decreases chances of return flow or WAA screwing us. 

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You can see here that even with SLP over the delmarva, there's plenty of cold mid level air to wrap into the system. Being tucked means that mixing is surely possible with the greatest risk closer to the SLP center but it should be short lived. Once the low gets west of us the column will crash easily. 

gfs_T850_neus_21.png

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Here's the euro meteo for DC from 0z. You can see the potential for a GFS like solution baked into the solutions. This was the best EPS run so far for this event as well. 

idACACB.jpg

Interested in seeing the GEFS.  I wonder if there are going to be some monsters in there.

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17 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Beautiful run. GFS has been Rock Solid for a while now with this storm. I believe the Euros going to be nice to look at this afternoon also.

I'll believe that when I see it...It's been stubborn as an ox lately, smh I just hope we get some sort of convergence (hopefully for the better) by the end of today...Can't take another 24 hours of them being at odds, lol

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I don't see a nicely positioned high to the north?

There's a weak high behind the departing low. We benefit from confluence from the departing low. Keeps surface flow northerly until the SLP approaches so another insitu CAD type of setup. There's a window of SE flow as it jumps the mountiains but the good stuff on the back side has all the cold it needs to work with. 

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17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That's a straight up flush hit. EXACTLY what we want to see. I find zero wrong with this run. Perfecto. 

with the pattern as depicted, it actually has a chance.  This would be great for many of us.  Only 18 more model runs to go.

 

when 500 closed at 96 I had a feeling.

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

There's a weak high behind the departing low. We benefit from confluence from the departing low. Keeps surface flow northerly until the SLP approaches so another insitu CAD type of setup. There's a window of SE flow as it jumps the mountiains but the good stuff on the back side has all the cold it needs to work with. 

Yea I saw that.  This is March and we need a decent cold air source, the whole setup seems incredibly tenuous and having a low tucked that far in outside of January gives me serious pause about this event.

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23 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

If it wasn't just the GFS showing this, I'd be going crazy right now.

I obviously want to see consensus form... but the op euro isnt what it once was...its been a mess with specific storms a LOT lately.  The EPS being generally supportive helps too.  I am not saying I feel this is a lock or anything...but I feel better about it then I would have a couple years ago with the euro on the other side.  

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26 minutes ago, Ji said:

yikes..thats more tucked in that i imagined

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

Tucked is good...especially for you and me.  But in March with the increased baroclinicity these storms tend to wind up tight... Don't want that low as far offshore as a typical mid winter system imo.  We need the crazy dynamics to overcome mid march issues.  

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27 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Well well well...CMC just misses the phase but took a huge step towards the GFS....#America!

I am totally ok with the cmc having a close miss just to the south.  It completely misses the phase...not by much...just runs the stj wave out ahead of the northern stream a bit too much...and even without any phasing its right there just south of us.  

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Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Can we get precip for the UKMET?

Precip panels on this site do not go out past 72: http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNMPR&hh=120&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&hh2=120&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

I am unaware of another source (or if it is available for UKMET).

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