Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

March 7 Disc/Observations


nj2va

Recommended Posts

Just now, PhineasC said:

When's the last time one of these Miller B storms showing "NE MD" getting into WSW snows actually panned out?

I bet the media will go nuts on this and show PHL getting 20" and they will get like 7".

Just wait.

Early January 2014. Doesn't usually happen, but with the right vort passage we can get a nice event.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
11 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Newbie question...What is causing the heights along the east coast the lower? That seems like the biggest change to me in allowing the coastal to run east on both NAMs before getting captured further north.

It's a good question.  I'm wondering if the warm sea surface temperatures have been causing trends towards deeper systems lately.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

When's the last time one of these Miller B storms showing "NE MD" getting into WSW snows actually panned out?

I bet the media will go nuts on this and show PHL getting 20" and they will get like 7".

Just wait.

DING DING DING!!!!

 

I am part of this so called "NE MD" crew and in the 8 years I've lived here, there has never been a  miller B type storm that has missed DC and pounded here.

In the past it has been: Jersey shore wins, Philly gets leftovers, NE Maryland gets a dusting, south of that watches.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Mdecoy said:

DING DING DING!!!!

 

I am part of this so called "NE MD" crew and in the 8 years I've lived here, there has never been a  miller B type storm that has missed DC and pounded here.

In the past it has been: Jersey shore wins, Philly gets leftovers, NE Maryland gets a dusting, south of that watches.

 

That is so reassuring, seriously!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Mdecoy said:

its just been my experience. Even before I lived here, look at Dec 2000. Really once you went over the Delaware Memorial Bridge, that was it.

But maybe this is the storm that changes that.

For once, I agree with you on this statement. Miller B's that do well in this region are rare. Occasionally they work (Feb 9-10, 2010), but most of the time they don't. At the very least, it'll be interesting to see this play out, especially in the nowcasting thread

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I want to believe but I’d like to see the globals corroborate. I believe the 3k NAM much more than the 12k and it looks pretty good so far but not as good as 12z.


I agree there. 3km has been doing a great job inside 36 hours. Tonight at 0z is the big run imo. I think we’ll have a full handle on specifics in the evolving 500 setup by them. Meso stuff will obviously roll into game time. Someone in NE MD into SE PA is getting a foot+ out of this. I like Chester and MoCo county in PA as the winners down this latitude at least.


.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd like to see another shift SW from the current NAM run to be more sure of a WSW level event. The gradient is extremely close on that run, to the point that a few miles makes a difference between 6"+ and


You’re going to be sweating bullets in your hood. Perhaps this is a good opportunity to go for a drive NE lol


.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

For once, I agree with you on this statement. Miller B's that do well in this region are rare. Occasionally they work (Feb 9-10, 2010), but most of the time they don't. At the very least, it'll be interesting to see this play out, especially in the nowcasting thread

I don't even count Feb 2010. That was simply a freakish, special winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, high risk said:

         I know that the central/northern/northeast MD crew is salivating over this, but even if the details are correct, a 10:1 ratio seems way too generous for this type of event.

I think that’s probably true for the front end stuff late tomorrow, but if that CCB verifies, I think it could pile up well Wednesday morning.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think that’s probably true for the front end stuff late tomorrow, but if that CCB verifies, I think it could pile up well Wednesday morning.

        fair argument, although the temps are still pretty marginal.   The Ferrier accumulation map on TT cuts things back a bit and may be a bit more reasonable (assuming anything close to correct synoptic details).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, high risk said:

         I know that the central/northern/northeast MD crew is salivating over this, but even if the details are correct, a 10:1 ratio seems way too generous for this type of event.

I was going to mention that, and the 18z 3k was a step down from 12z, at least for Baltimore and south. I know the 3k has been really good this winter so far, but it concerns me that it's basically on an island. The Euro/GFS/12k NAM plus RGEM all seem to basically have the same solution, and that's almost nothing Baltimore south. Glad I'm not making a forecast for this one. The 3k NAM has almost nothing for DC to 6 inches in Baltimore to over a foot just into Northeast Baltimore County and northeast from there. I know it's at 10:1 so chop it all down a bunch, but wouldn't take much movements either way with sharp cutoffs to change a lot of that output.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...