showmethesnow Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It all comes down to where the best convergence sets up with the ccb as the low gets going. Places in the extreme NE portion of our subform are on the fence. Highest probability for heavy snow is clearly from SE PA into interior NJ. Rates will easily overcome any possible low level temp issues there. That's the thing. Haven't dived deep into but just by looking looking at the latest precip maps it looks as if there is a tendency to have that feature set up farther west then earlier runs had it. I also wouldn't under estimate the mid-levels getting pooched severely enough from the easterly flow that rates can't overcome especially the farther east you go. Again, haven't dived deep into it this morning so maybe I am just overthinking things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Split the diff.2-3” sounds good for you☺️ hey stranger. yeah i do think that could be a safe call at this point. we shall see how things progress today. wouldn't surprise me in the least if everything went further east and i end up with cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Oh good, another model jumping on board with a historical storm for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, mappy said: hey stranger. yeah i do think that could be a safe call at this point. we shall see how things progress today. wouldn't surprise me in the least if everything went further east and i end up with cirrus. Hopefully you get 1-2” late this evening and don’t have to worry as much about the potential bust tomorrow I’ve been lurking on here for a while but not posting much. Focusing on my personal page and forecasting for contractors. I think Masco up in Philly is getting a bit carried away, plus he made a map that would make you cartographers cringe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Hopefully you get 1-2” late this evening and don’t have to worry as much about the potential bust tomorrow I’ve been lurking on here for a while but not posting much. Focusing on my personal page and forecasting for contractors. I think Masco up in Philly is getting a bit carried away, plus he made a map that would make you cartographers cringe hahahaha i love bad maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Also, i love this too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 24 minutes ago, Interstate said: Lost support on the HRDPS This looks more likely. This is what Miller B's generally do for the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, mappy said: Also, i love this too. Jeez we know there’s going to be a major cutoff but that takes it to a new extreme. 30 mm for you and maybe 2.5 for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I passed an armada of utility trucks heading around the Baltimore beltway this morning. I assume to preposition themselves up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 i hope this call works out, but seems high, for me. i dont have much faith in miller bs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 28 minutes ago, mappy said: So... hard to tell what I should expect. A dusting? 1-2" 4-6" who knows. Miller Bs are a pain in the arse. Yup. Its going to be interesting for your yard. 1-6" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I get another dusting!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, H2O said: I get another dusting!!!!! You should really use Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Abbyme24 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 40 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: I passed an armada of utility trucks heading around the Baltimore beltway this morning. I assume to preposition themselves up north. There's still about 30,000 people without power, myself included, so more likely it's to work on those first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 NCEP snowfall map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, mappy said: NCEP snowfall map Looks like they are shifting the max westward closer to my ideas of a Balt/Carroll county jackpot. As they say. 12z runs are going to be a big run. I wouldn't rule out a surprise or two. Hopefully in a good way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 10 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Looks like they are shifting the max westward closer to my ideas of a Balt/Carroll county jackpot. As they say. 12z runs are going to be a big run. I wouldn't rule out a surprise or two. Hopefully in a good way. i finally bit the bullet and got a subscription service for models, so i can dive into this stuff myself instead of always asking for others to post hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 If you believe in the trashy HRRR at long range and with normal 10:1 ratios, we all get in on a lot of fun. Too bad no one believes in any of those things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: If you believe in the trashy HRRR at long range and with normal 10:1 ratios, we all get in on a lot of fun. Too bad no one believes in any of those things. I’ll believe it if u show me a map. At least until it the next run when it changes lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 lol. YES ON THE NAM! share the love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 12k NAM has a good WAA slug and then tries to wrap the CCB down to DC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The NAM looks pretty good. Lots of wraparound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: lol. YES ON THE NAM! share the love My favorite and least favorite model has not been disappointing with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Shows some snow reach Fredericksburg with the coastal. This is a mappy approved run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 That gradient is insane. I am sorry, I am just not buying anything the models are selling for I-95 From Baltimore To Philly. This event feels like a SE PA, Poconos, NYC, Northern Jersey special. We've done this song and dance before (I think as recently as last march to be exact). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 hours ago, showmethesnow said: He had 4-8 for Baltimore? No wonder the twitter link no longer exists. Getting rid of the evidence. 4-8" for the NE portion of Baltimore itself, then to the N and E. 2-4" to the S and W of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The NAM is absolute junk, which is why you can always count on it to throw weenies a bone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, mattie g said: 4-8" for the NE portion of Baltimore itself, then to the N and E. 2-4" to the S and W of there. I want to know who here in this forum.. who is from Baltimore.. thinks that are getting any more than an inch or two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Disclaimers aside, just telling people what the run shows... 3K also has slightly better tilt to the trof with the ULL from Canada diving a little more west. I'd imagine it will have a similar look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 the nam has been so bad this year. the GFS is really the only decent model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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