Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

just in case anyone missed it. Todays Euro

Everyone of those VENDOR euro clown maps has been crap 

It cheapened The euro product

[MarkO]

Every major market tv met is giving Boston <3, as in inches, not love.

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I agree with that.  Nice job man, I think that's a reasonable call. 

I think you'd like the 3km NAM... like 10-12" for you and 4" in the valley due to BL warmth.  Very elevational on that product.

Looking at the 925mb temps, I'm leaning towards this being more elevational dependent than many are thinking at least there hasn't been a ton of talk about it.  Even up here.

People posted the 925 Euro maps, didn't seem to be any indication elevation played a role

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Everyone of those VENDOR euro clown maps has been crap 

It cheapened The euro product

it is what it is but based on 850 925 surface temps and qpf I'd say that ain't that bad

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m just not convinced it’s an elevation setup . I think it will play a role on pavements , but if it’s thumping it doesn’t matter. I guess I’d knock off 2-4” lower due to that . 

- 2-4 because of pavement? lol isn't snow measured on a board?

[moneypitmike]

22 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The good ole firehose

The Details:  Primary axis of snow will be south of the region...
just entering southern New England at 12 UTC.  Have to watch coastal
areas in the morning with model sounding profiles showing the
potential for some ocean enhanced snow shower or perhaps drizzle
give saturated low levels.  Have boosted PoPs but will not mention
drizzle/freezing drizzle until confidence in this scenario grows.
Otherwise...have sped up snowfall arrival time an hour or two from
what was inherited with conditions rapidly deteriorating as
southeasterly low level jet strengthens ahead of strengthening low
pressure to the south.   This -4 to -5 sigma easterly jet will
result in what looks to be a "firehose" of heavy precipitation that
arrives over southern New Hampshire after 4pm with about a 6-9 hour
period of 1-3" per hour snowfall rates following this.  MUCAPE progs
indicate some potential for thundersnow perhaps sneaking into
coastal areas.  Thus...the 5pm-5am period looks the most dangerous
in terms of travel.  On Thursday...low pressure moves into the Gulf
of Maine while filling as it then slowly wobbles north and west
across eastern and northern Maine Thursday night.  Thus...expect all
areas to be snowing at daybreak with a gradual decrease in snowfall
intensity and coverage from south to north during the day as dynamic
forcing wanes and low pressure weakens.

Snow:  Have not made substantial changes to the snow forecast with
this package...with 12-18" for most locations...but focusing a band
in the climatologically favored area just inland from the coast /EEN-
SFM-LEW/ of a few inches more than this...reaching to around 20".
Biggest questions are along the immediate coast...with boundary
layer temperatures marginal through Wednesday afternoon and evening
before any mix collapses back to the coast after midnight.
Here...have some amounts near 6" along the immediate coast...quickly
ramping up as you head inland.  Some room for these to change as
well given that we/re still about 24 hours before things really get
going.

 

Nice.  I'll be there to report what's happening along the coast.  

[The 4 Seasons]

Looks like the 21Z RPM is pulling back east/cold soln from the 18Z cycle. Not that i trust that thing, but nice to see the westward trend stop and move the other way so close to the event. 

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

This storm is a living hell because it’s going to obliterate my productivity tomorrow even though I’m going to end up with an inch. 

[dryslot]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yes Sam was THE man, wouldn't be surprised at all if you are under blizzard warnings tomorrow

I think that would be a record here, That would end up being the 3rd one this season, I can't recall having that many warned before.

[butterfish55]

3 minutes ago, PeabodyFlood said:

This storm is a living hell because it’s going to obliterate my productivity tomorrow even though I’m going to end up with an inch. 

It's done that for me for the last week and I'm looking to get maybe an inch or two.  Such a tough hobby....

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The euro being pretty cool still at least gives some hope for a bit of paste down this way. 0c 925 gets to about Boston and a bit NW of PVD. 1c looks to hangout within about 10 miles of the coast though, so it isn’t an all out torch.

Hoping for some surprises and maybe a couple ticks cooler in the final 24.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

- 2-4 because of pavement? lol isn't snow measured on a board?

No in general . But it’s admittedly uncertain 

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Looks like the 21Z RPM is pulling back east/cold soln from the 18Z cycle. Not that i trust that thing, but nice to see the westward trend stop and move the other way so close to the event. 

East trend is a real thing in this situation though, I may fail but after looking at everything I am 100% in the Euro UK EPS basket, all in

[STILL N OF PIKE]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

it is what it is but based on 850 925 surface temps and qpf I'd say that ain't that bad

I would say take em down in lower elevations. Esp S shore

[ajisai]

Harvey sticking with the GFS. 1-2" Boston south, 2-4" 128 into Northern RI, 4-6" NW RI into Worcester/NH border. 6-12" NH/W MA lolli's to 12+ Monad's/Berks. 

Second time in a week he's not feeling the euro for Boston. I guess I'll take my scraps.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Looks like the 21Z RPM is pulling back east/cold soln from the 18Z cycle. Not that i trust that thing, but nice to see the westward trend stop and move the other way so close to the event. 

By 12z tomorrow upton will reverse course and put back their original forecast from today. You’d think weenies are controlling their switchboard. 

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

By 12z tomorrow upton will reverse course and put back their original forecast from today. You’d think weenies are controlling their switchboard. 

I have that feeling as well. This is an difficult forecast to say the least in the transition, questionable zone. For NW CT its a lock for SE CT its pretty much game over with a few inches of slush.

These things can go either way, like the last storm, something tells me this ends up like Feb 5 2001 and catches everyone off guard tomorrow but well see.

Stuggling over the accumulation map right now, driving myself nuts, haha.

[snowman21]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

By 12z tomorrow upton will reverse course and put back their original forecast from today. You’d think weenies are controlling their switchboard. 

What exactly has been the problem with their forecasts? It didn't seem like it has changed much at all today.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Ill see what Harvey tweets or has in a.m

Not goin against him w.r.t 128-Bos corridor.

He may not do Nashua as well

Gotta respect that deep easterly inflow

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I would say take em down in lower elevations. Esp S shore

Where is there elevation on the south shore

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, snowman21 said:

What exactly has been the problem with their forecasts? It didn't seem like it has changed much at all today.

They cut back in CTand LI. here they went from 12-18 to 8-12. And less for lower portions of ffd and hvn counties.

[DavisStraight]

30 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Here's my forecast. 

This looks reasonable, Harvey seemed low

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Where is thDow elevation on the south shore .

Oh boy. You must be a cpl deep already.

Take em down in lower elevations (600' or so and Lower. As well as the S. Shore Take em way down euro clown numbers are way off There imo 

[The 4 Seasons]

March 1st 2005 is the top CIPS analog for the NAM at 36. 03/06/18 12zrun

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, WthrJunkyME said:

No warning signs, Tip.  Felt just fine!  Except, of course, that I knew and was prescribed blood pressure medication and stopped taking it because it made me sore.  “It’ll never happen to me” denial sort of thing.  10 pm I’m on the couch watching the news, dog next to me.  Get up to get dog a snack and my chest just felt tight, as if someone were sitting on it.  Hard to take a breath, I took some aspirin.  Woke up my wife, told her I must have some heartburn or something.  Then felt nauseous, tried to throw up, nothing.  But I felt immediately better, back to normal.  Though it came right back again and told my wife to drive me to emergency.  I was still actively having a heart attack when I arrived.

Anybody with heart issues, high cholesterol, etc. already know what I’m going to say.  If you have any of these problems and not resolving them like I failed to do, it’s just not worth it.  I can’t stand hospitals, I can’t stand being on medications and while I generally eat healthy, I eat what I want, when I want.  I especially don’t care to be lectured to, such as I’m doing right now! Those days are now over.  I now have to do what I’m told or I die, simple as that.  Were there warnings? Yes, but no immediate warning, just happened all of a sudden.  It was a foreign pain for me.

 

Eesh... scary.  Must have been a mild heart attack or...heh, face it - we probably wouldn't be having this discussion. I was asking about the 'warnings' because I read a MAYO thing on that, citing that most cases there was a symptom or two in the days or even weeks prior, but was typically ignored... I just wonder if they may be so subtle it was easy to do so or something. But, that sucks if you just stand up and then that's it... wtf

I'm a little nervous about that sort of thing.  Why?  Because I've seen loved ones close to me have triple b-passes and stints and stuff.   My step father had an attack while..duh duh duhnnn shoveling snow back in 1999 ... he's alive and well now thanks as you say, to modern medicine.  But prior generational he'd a been a gonner.  

My biological father just had a full cardio work up ..nuclear stress test even... at 75 years of age and was cleared, despite being on blood pressure meds for five decades.  Said he had the cardiac health and vascular venting of a much younger man. The rest of him? Yeah, piece of schit... so he complains, including his attitude, but that's all a different thing     However, his father (my g-dad) died abruptly at 84 from a massive event.  So although it's not altogether hugely prevalent in my family... it's not absent either. And, my family is after all American, and we are all unwitting, you, me, the users of this forum, and everyone they know... victims of the "Industrial Food Complex" ... which hasn't been altogether honest about what processing of simple carbs and sugars does to both BP and heart health.  

I don't drink or smoke.  I sleep, work out, and eat well, and religiously work out three to four times a week, rigorously.  I am not over weight.  My BP probably needs to be checked out seeing as my dad had it, and he never drank either.  They don't call it the 'silent killer' for nothing.  My hands get cold at my desk and I get posterior hypotension when I stand up too quickly...which is consistent with normal BP... but, instead of getting checked out I hate doctors and hospitals and suffer white-coat syndrome ... 

God...sometimes i think it's better if we were just born dolphins to dogs... they don't care because ignorance is bliss.  

[wx2fish]

28 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Looks like the 21Z RPM is pulling back east/cold soln from the 18Z cycle. Not that i trust that thing, but nice to see the westward trend stop and move the other way so close to the event. 

Looks like it went from almost over ORH at 18z to over MVY at 21z. Finally coming back to reality.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

March 1st 2005 is the top CIPS analog for the NAM at 36. 03/06/18 12zrun

I have PTSD from that storm....was supposed to be 8-12" here and the jackpot but then some sort of convective blob formed over LI and tracked over SE MA and robbed a lot of moisture/circulation....and PYM got like 14" in 5 hours when they were supposed to have mixing issues. When actual real convective feedback goes wrong, lol. (or right if you were down there)

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I have PTSD from that storm....was supposed to be 8-12" here and the jackpot but then some sort of convective blob formed over LI and tracked over SE MA and robbed a lot of moisture/circulation....and PYM got like 14" in 5 hours when they were supposed to have mixing issues. When actual real convective feedback goes wrong, lol. (or right if you were down there)

I forget exactly what i got from that in North Haven but if i remember it as the storm that i am thinking...it was def warning amounts around 6-8"

[Damage In Tolland]

In a lot of ways this reminds me of Morch 14 storm last year. Just a bit warmer at surface and not as windy

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

I forget exactly what i got from that in North Haven but if i remember it as the storm that i am thinking...it was def warning amounts around 6-8"

Yeah we still did well....but not what was forecast....I recall around 6" or so.