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-NAO Coastal Bomb March 1-3, 2018 Disco


WeatherFeen2000

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That's why I said this would be epic. Unfortunately it was a shift towards the Euro and others.
Honestly, I would not discount this solution. Synoptically it makes sense, and it is one of those runs that shows what happens if the SLP closes off in the correct area. That being said, of course, i would not put too much stock in it unless 00z spits out something similar

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A weaker primary means less warm air thrown north initially. So hopefully that would mean less to have to mix out. It would be nice if we could get the 500mb low to close off just a little further south of the NAM this run, although obviously it was epic on its own. These closed 500mb lows can surprise on the west side of them as others have pointed out. But the NAM is probably overdone. 

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1 minute ago, Rtd208 said:

Coastal Flood Watch and a Flood Watch are now in effect for my area beginning late Thursday night. Mt.Holly saying minor to moderate coastal flooding with the Friday morning and evening high tides and moderate to major possible with the Saturday morning and evening high tide cycles.

Might need a blizzard watch added on. 

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2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Coastal Flood Watch and a Flood Watch are now in effect for my area beginning late Thursday night. Mt.Holly saying minor to moderate coastal flooding with the Friday morning and evening high tides and moderate to major possible with the Saturday morning and evening high tide cycles.

you forgot to mention little or no snow accumulation

http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KPHI.html

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Honestly if we only cared about what the NWS had to say, we wouldn't need to look at models or even have discussions.

NWS playing it conservative, per the usual. Not saying that's the wrong move up to now, however this will end up being a surprise to many if the colder scenarios end up verifying. 

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8 minutes ago, Enigma said:

1. Mount Holly has not updated their snowfall products yet.

2. Be careful with NAM...there are places in upstate NY that went from 25 in. to 2 in. in 24 hr.

The reason why it has shifted east is because the models are finally grasping on to the blocking.

3 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

that is nothing like 2/10/10

The other February storm

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Honestly if we only cared about what the NWS had to say, we wouldn't need to look at models or even have discussions.

NWS playing it conservative, per the usual. Not saying that's the wrong move up to now, however this will end up being a surprise to many if the colder scenarios end up verifying. 

Agree

They always go conservative until the storm starts.

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10 minutes ago, Enigma said:

1. Mount Holly has not updated their snowfall products yet.

2. Be careful with NAM...there are places in upstate NY that went from 25 in. to 2 in. in 24 hr.

Nobody is taking an 18z NAM verbatim that departs so much form it's 12z run. But the EPS mean did shift colder at 12z. The 0z tonight and 12z runs tomorrow should have a better handle on things.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Honestly if we only cared about what the NWS had to say, we wouldn't need to look at models or even have discussions.

NWS playing it conservative, per the usual. Not saying that's the wrong move up to now, however this will end up being a surprise to many if the colder scenarios end up verifying. 

From Upton:

AS FOR ANY SNOWFALL, THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR ANY ACCUMULATING   
SNOW WOULD BE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, IN   
PARTICULAR ORANGE COUNTY,

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Another huge 180 degree different run, huge shift, from the flip flopping, horrible NAM. Some of you guys let the NAM play you like a $3 dollar horn. This storm hasn’t changed in days. Still no cold air, zero cold air source, no cold air to the north to wrap in. This is not a metro area snow event, never has been never will be. Again, trace for the city maybe, Trace to maybe 1” for the north and west suburbs. This is strictly a dynamically cooled snow event for the higher elevations from Sussex and Orange County on north. People just continue to live and die with fantasy rogue snowy model run and dreams that “it’s getting colder”. Nothing has changed nothing will 

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