Dan76 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 ANZ232-254-255-011700- /O.CAN.KBOX.SR.A.0002.180302T1200Z-180303T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KBOX.HF.A.0001.180302T1500Z-180303T0900Z/ Nantucket Sound- Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA out 20 nm- Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket- 350 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 ...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Hurricane Force Wind Watch, which is in effect from Friday morning through late Friday night. The Storm Watch has been cancelled. * WINDS AND SEAS...Northeast winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 70 kt. Seas 26 to 31 feet. WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Been nice seeing you all. I'm going to become part of the Atlantic if some of these runs verify. 3km NAM is over 6.25" of precip. You guys always jack, enjoy taking it from both sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Reggie is full frontal . No 2 ways about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Still feel that S ORH county down to around DIT to Ginxy to N RI, Mendon area are gonna pull 10-12+ out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is why I pulled the rug out west on Nemo and got killed by them for it, but was right. I called the EURO on BS. Someone is gonna get pounded on the W side of the 850/700 lows while someone who seemingly in better position going in who is on the NNE side gets dry slotted. I could see a place like Danbury CT doing better than Boston without a doubt...and I don’t mean Boston airport I mean 15-20 Miles inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The "experimental" snow forecast on GYX's website looks bizarre, but probably only reflects the low confidence of forecasts for this event. The "most likely" for Farmington is <1", but there's a 10% chance of 14". (And a 10% chance of nada.) I expect some sheet drizzle on 30 mph gusts - lovely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Been nice seeing you all. I'm going to become part of the Atlantic if some of these runs verify. 3km NAM is over 6.25" of precip. Doesn't matter which model or what run for like 5 days, SE MA jack.........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, tamarack said: The "experimental" snow forecast on GYX's website looks bizarre, but probably only reflects the low confidence of forecasts for this event. The "most likely" for Farmington is <1", but there's a 10% chance of 14". (And a 10% chance of nada.) I expect some sheet drizzle on 30 mph gusts - lovely. sounds like a testing phase... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 Heh, maybe we will get historic here after all. I think the CF is about as high probability for significant impact at the major side of the spectrum as I've ever seen it. However, I am just middle aged - I can imagine a scenario, if perhaps one where we merely have not lived long enough to witness, where a similar powerful maelstrom occurred spatial-temporally located upon a top tier spring tide scenario. I get the feeling that timing that is so exceptionally rare, a rare tide on top of a rare atmospheric juggernaut ... it's like the same reason why we haven't all fried sooner in a Carrington Event .. purely a numbers game... However, Friday's top tide is in fact an augmented one nonetheless, and this is timed about an inch short of ideal relative to that... The 2nd tide tomorrow is actually not lunar schedule "quite" as tall but still elevated... and combining, as Oceanwx adroitly pointed out.. the recession/ebb being challenged to do so by wave and wind pile, culminates and is disconcertingly setting the entire coast up for a very high impact scenario. I really believe even if it snows prodigiously in the interior (if perhaps by the chagrin of previous warm-biased solutions/modeling...), the bigger concern is centered on the shores zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: sounds like a testing phase... Probably practicing for when we get our 1:100 yr storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 GFS looks similar to the small NAM changes early on. Hopefully it hangs around a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The RGEM shows the benefits of the storm being a bit further east / allowing for better cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: This is precisely why successive high tides become amplifying as an impact -- It's that 2nd cycle... This is what happened in 1978 and I think 1992 if memory serves. The 2nd third cycles were sort of warned (more so) by the first That's why March 1962 was so devastating for the Jersey coast. IIRC, the surge lasted thru 3-4 tidal cycles. (In NNJ we were primed for up to 20" snow, got 2" as the storm hung a sharp right. SNJ got 2-3" of mostly RA.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: GFS looks similar to the small NAM changes early on. Hopefully it hangs around a bit more. Yea, looks like it will be east again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: GFS looks similar to the small NAM changes early on. Hopefully it hangs around a bit more. Looks like last night may have been a bit of noise and we finally have some agreement... Maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: Doesn't matter which model or what run for like 5 days, SE MA jack.........lol This is gonna be epic for the rivers/streams here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaryS Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Here in Marblehead, the mouth of the harbor faces due NE. With seas to 30 feet and winds 60 to 70 knts, I see a lot of damage coming. I'll film what I can and post it here Sunday. Not concerned with snow this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: This is gonna be epic for the rivers/streams here. Your getting rocked, No way around it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: Yea, looks like it will be east again. Looks like a better phase this run. I also noticed the HRRR has the low much more tucked in at the end of the run compared to some of these other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, GaryS said: Here in Marblehead, the mouth of the harbor faces due NE. With seas to 30 feet and winds 60 to 70 knts, I see a lot of damage coming. I'll film what I can and post it here Sunday. Not concerned with snow this storm. TIA. It would be great for us Western folk if we can get some coastal videos posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Looks like a better phase this run. I also noticed the HRRR has the low much more tucked in at the end of the run compared to some of these other models. Better but also later. The further east this gets the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Absolute smoke job after 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Someone is gonna get pounded on the W side of the 850/700 lows while someone who seemingly in better position going in who is on the NNE side gets dry slotted. I could see a place like Danbury CT doing better than Boston without a doubt...and I don’t mean Boston airport I mean 15-20 Miles inland Danbury could be destroyed Rain ova to heavy snow early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: Your getting rocked, No way around it. Yeah, I'm also in Scott's camp that any snows on the backside will be an added bonus. The shear impacts of the winds/rain/erosion to the coast and potential tree damage/power outages will be incredible. Add wet snow to the mix will take it to the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 19 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Been nice seeing you all. I'm going to become part of the Atlantic if some of these runs verify. 3km NAM is over 6.25" of precip. It's ok, I have an inflatable kayak...ill pick you up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Whatever they did to tweak the model last night seems to have worked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, #NoPoles said: It's ok, I have an inflatable kayak...ill pick you up Your downstream so watch and wait for me as I float by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 No, the GFS has a stupid T-TD spread. Or as Tony Maz would say...STOOOOOPID!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Well scituate is already flooding because of the lunar cycle, add in a storm surge and 25foot waves, and prolonged easterly winds...the coast is going to get annihilated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: No, the GFS has a stupid T-TD spread. Or as Tony Maz would say...STOOOOOPID!! The NAM does too. The models never see evaporative cooling in this setup. The NAM has NYC 41/29 all day tomorrow after 14Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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