Bonafide SWFE 2/7-8

[CoastalWx]

The GFS consistently has an immediate burst of lift which helps. 

[dryslot]

Some made it up to the ledge and are now climbing back down.

[jbenedet]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's an obvious CAD setup....look at the high position and the kink in the isobars as the low approaches...it's nothing like the previous storm yesterday. That said, if this goes another 100 miles west from even tonight's runs, then we will still warm sector eventually....but this is pretty classic CAD look.

 

 

I guess at the very  onset. But I think the real issue is all the surface HP out over the western Atlantic. It looks like the surface winds are mostly out of the east, as a result. On top of that, there’s no place for this to escape east around our latitude...

I guess there’s subjectivity here, but H5 doesn’t look like a good CAD setup in my book at all.

[weathafella]

Gfs is really cold.  Keeps BOS subfreezing for the duration.

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Gfs is really cold.  Keeps BOS subfreezing for the duration.

Sure is. Lop some off too with the GFS warm bias. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Gfs is really cold.  Keeps BOS subfreezing for the duration.

Yea that popped out to me, when the GFS is cold at the surface thats usually a good sign for N of the Pikers

[Ginx snewx]

GGEM is a hot mess 

[Thunderblizzard]

CMC is definitely warmer.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Gyx has got to be lookin at those mild 850's making a run at SNH around 7pm.

Seems we are surprised every time when the warm tongue goes a bit further north than modeled

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Gyx has got to be lookin at those mild 850's making a run at SNH around 7pm.

Seems we are surprised every time when the warm tongue goes a bit further north than modeled

Or so she said

[CT Rain]

ECMWF looks like it held serve from 12z.

[Thunderblizzard]

Euro looks similar. A little faster perhaps.

[blizzard24]

ecwmf is colder  storm now. models underestimate the cold air all the time 

[Damage In Tolland]

Everything looks on track for a solid winter storm 

[dendrite]

6z GFS is a little warmer...NAM looks similar.

[moneypitmike]

Of course, my hidden hope is that my 2:40 flight out of BDL gets cancelled 'forcing' me to stay home for the snow.  Looks good for warning levels at both Pit1 and 2 and a couple good hours south of the Pike before the tainting takes place.  

Once again, BOX has forgotten that GC borders VT, not NH.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to develop by midday and
  will be heavy at times in the afternoon and evening. Snowfall
  rates of 1 inch per hour are possible. The snow may mix with or
  even change to a period of sleet and freezing rain toward
  Wednesday evening, with mostly snow near the New Hampshire
  Border. Precipitation will taper off around midnight.

13.3*

[Damage In Tolland]

There's def gonna be a narrow corridor of significant icing with .25+ accretion.  Let's see if Will's theory of models trending colder as we get closer in works it's magic again today

[ineedsnow]

Thinking 4 to 6 here then some sleet and freezing rain... 

[weathafella]

51 minutes ago, dendrite said:

6z GFS is a little warmer...NAM looks similar.

Big snow numbers.

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Everything looks on track for a solid winter storm 

Agreed.  Should be fun.

 

[moneypitmike]

SWFE--the way winters are supposed to be.  GC approves.

[powderfreak]

As shown by BTV, soundings up here look decent for snow growth, right in the sweet spot of the DGZ.

[moneypitmike]

This sure is an distribution over a very large geographic area.  Perhaps a little tainting at Pit 2, per the map.  The p/c and zfp don't call for it though.

 

[powderfreak]

Crazy thermal gradient in the mid-levels in NNE... Euro max temp between 850-700mb looks like 0C to -1C at like DDH-CON while up here it's -8C to -10C.  

Should be some nice snow growth up in northern tier. Veering flow with SE low level flow blocked because of SW flow off the deck, should really help Eastern slopes wring it out.

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

This sure is about as even a distribution over a very large geographic area.

 

Ha yeah. All of VT/NH/ME covered in 8-10".

[dryslot]

You can tell its a SWFE, Not often you see those maps with that type of spread with uniform totals.

[ORH_wxman]

Guidance definitely sped up the onset a little. I mentioned yesterday that we do get that behavior sometimes in these events. Looks like most of CNE and SNE are snowing before noontime now. Prob a bit after 12z in places like far western MA and W CT. 

[moneypitmike]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Guidance definitely sped up the onset a little. I mentioned yesterday that we do get that behavior sometimes in these events. Looks like most of CNE and SNE are snowing before noontime now. Prob a bit after 12z in places like far western MA and W CT. 

You think it's snowing by 8:00am. at BDL?  When do you think they'll be transitioning to rain?  My flights at 2:40.

[Cold Miser]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Guidance definitely sped up the onset a little. I mentioned yesterday that we do get that behavior sometimes in these events. Looks like most of CNE and SNE are snowing before noontime now. Prob a bit after 12z in places like far western MA and W CT. 

Yesterday's local mid-day news was talking about a flip back to snow after the rain.  Is this still in the cards, and if so to what extent (length of time & extent geographically north to south, any accumulation)?

[WthrJunkyME]

Just to add to Dryslot’s “widespread” comment.  Hope everyone does well.