jbenedet Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Surface low track though does not always correlate to a snowier one. No kidding, I don't really care about the specific track of the SLP - not sure why everyone else does atm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I'm thinking more for temps in those areas to the north. Oh, for sure. We know the drill on surface temps. But this may be more of a mashed potato 6:1 or 8:1 type snow for a lot. I'm not sure I trust the 10:1 algos and the Koochie is tossed off the Tobin for an event such as this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: End of story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, jbenedet said: No kidding, I don't really care about the specific track of the SLP - not sure why everyone else does atm... Makes a huge difference for icing in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Makes a huge difference for icing in the interior. Benedict was saying 50 to TOL / ORH. They won’t tickle 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: No kidding, I don't really care about the specific track of the SLP - not sure why everyone else does atm... 32, 50...what's 18*F and .25" of ice accretion between friends at a given locale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 GFS has been the furthest south and coldest it seems, so the 12z run will be interesting to see. I think it holds its course. GGEM after days of being the coldest did go warmer at 00z, so that'll be another interesting trend to see if it continues to backs off again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Benedict was saying 50 to TOL / ORH. They won’t tickle 32 He's having a rough day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: No kidding, I don't really care about the specific track of the SLP - not sure why everyone else does atm... If it tracks there, It will have happened 1:1,000,000 times, That what is being said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: GFS has been the furthest south and coldest it seems, so the 12z run will be interesting to see. I think it holds its course. GGEM after days of being the coldest did go warmer at 00z, so that'll be another interesting trend to see if it continues to backs off again. The GEM is always vacillating between extreme solutions on either end of the spectrum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: The GEM's is always vacillating between extreme solutions on either end of the spectrum. Yeah but I thought it was the most consistent of the models for days. It was odd to see. It didn't change that much at 00z, just a bit warmer. The EURO has moved around more than the GGEM, IMO over the past 72 hours. But like you said, it just hard to trust it in anything, even if its the same solution 8 runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Benedict was saying 50 to TOL / ORH. They won’t tickle 32 Nobody said that. The 3k NAM doesn't get anyone into the 50's nm Tol and ORH. Thanks for playing. 3k NAM is closest to what I think will happen with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 12z Reggie a couple tics colder then the 06z run it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah but I thought it was the most consistent of the models for days. It was odd to see. It didn't change that much at 00z, just a bit warmer. The EURO has moved around more than the GGEM, IMO over the past 72 hours. But like you said, it just hard to trust it in anything, even if its the same solution 8 runs in a row. Yes, it had been consistent as it relates to this event.....but I don't think the fact that the GEM broke continuity with itself is very important since it is a deplorable model. I guess I'd just go standard SWFE climo when a good high is well placed, unless presented with overwhelming evidence otherwise. I don't see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 What's with today? Completely snow covered roads here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Euro tracks it over about Taunton...I don't see a big reason to stray from that type of track. It fits climo in these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 Pig pile on pope today. He staked his position, others have staked theirs-let it play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Quiet in here all of a sudden. 12z Rgem takes SLP over boston to just east of KPSM. That was further north versus 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: Quiet in here all of a sudden. 12z Rgem takes SLP over boston to just east of KPSM. That was further north versus 6z. It could go over BOS. That's not the argument though. Congrats on staying below 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 I guess some didn't look at the models for the light snows that were popping up in W NE. Looks like NAM ended up being more right than wrong with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It could go over BOS. That's not the argument though. Congrats on staying below 32. So what exactly are you debating? You're starting to sound like Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It could go over BOS. That's not the argument though. Congrats on staying below 32. Yeah we're arguing that it's not going over the interior...BOS is fair game, tohugh that is prob the NW exteme I'd put it at. My money is on SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, jbenedet said: Quiet in here all of a sudden. 12z Rgem takes SLP over boston to just east of KPSM. That was further north versus 6z. I'm sure you don't take any of it personal. It's all in good fun for the sake of keeping it loose in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah we're arguing that it's not going over the interior...BOS is fair game, tohugh that is prob the NW exteme I'd put it at. My money is on SE MA. Taunton is usually about where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 They always go over far SE Mass. Always. It’s iron clad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, jbenedet said: So what exactly are you debating? You're starting to sound like Kevin. I said it earlier. The argument of the NAM bringing it over the interior is very difficult to believe. My guess is still SE MA up to BOS area or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 12 RGEM is Warm at 850 and the surface, just like the 12z NAM. DGAF about the nuances of 50 miles of SLP track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 I expect garbage solution here, but it matters much more inland and north of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, jbenedet said: 12 RGEM is Warm at 850 and the surface, just like the 12z NAM. DGAF about the nuances of 50 miles of SLP track. So to be clear, you're going for rain in Dover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: I said it earlier. The argument of the NAM bringing it over the interior is very difficult to believe. My guess is still SE MA up to BOS area or so. The hi-res NAM doesn't bring the SLP over the interior either. But the warmth at 850 and the surface is still well inland.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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