Bonafide SWFE 2/7-8

[moneypitmike]

51 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

For those curious, this is as far north as the mix line gets on the 3km NAM.

That’s ridiculously far north.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Looks like low goes just SE of me on the GFS.

Yup.  Between the 2 of us.  Just a bit faster than the 06z run as well.  Looks in line with the Euro as well. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Eye opening that the warm biased gfs in cad situations is so cold. Ride her

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yup.  Between the 2 of us.  Just a bit faster than the 06z run as well.  Looks in line with the Euro as well. 

I mean that's perfectly fine. I don't see a reason to sway from that. Curious to see how Swiss handles this. 12z doesn't come out until after 2pm.

[dendrite]

In defense of Pope, it takes a few years to really trust to toss the 2m temps with these setups. We pretty much CAD up here with just a puffin fart out of Maine.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, dendrite said:

In defense of Pope, it takes a few years to really trust to toss the 2m temps with these setups. We pretty much CAD up here with just a puffin fart out of Maine.

Yeah, lop off a few degrees to climo.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

In defense of Pope, it takes a few years to really trust to toss the 2m temps with these setups. We pretty much CAD up here with just a puffin fart out of Maine.

He still wakes up in a cold sweat from dreaming about east winds on Long Island with retreating highs....

[jbenedet]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS is actually a bit colder.

At 18z Wed. But it's def warmer at 850 and the surface by 0z Thurs.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, jbenedet said:

At 18z Wed. But it's def warmer at 850 and the surface by 0z Thurs.

So lets be clear, are you expecting rain?

[CoastalWx]

We aren't trying to give you a hard time. It's just we've seen this song and dance many times. It is extremely difficult to dislodge the cold in these setups in interior NE MA and SNH. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

He still wakes up in a cold sweat from dreaming about east winds on Long Island with retreating highs....

So, he isn't from here?

He never answered me...I'd be shocked if he was.

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

In defense of Pope, it takes a few years to really trust to toss the 2m temps with these setups. We pretty much CAD up here with just a puffin fart out of Maine.

Maybe.

But to be clear - you're in Northfield - I obviously don't think your have any ptype issues there....

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

We aren't trying to give you a hard time. It's just we've seen this song and dance many times. It is extremely difficult to dislodge the cold in these setups in interior NE MA and SNH. 

Tucky.

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

So lets be clear, are you expecting rain?

I already told you what I expect for mby.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

At 18z Wed. But it's def warmer at 850 and the surface by 0z Thurs.

I'll be shocked if you are this warm given those 10m streamlines. That is the northern extent of the sfc front on the GFS.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

I'll be shocked if you are this warm given those 10m streamlines. That is the northern extent of the sfc front on the GFS.

Exactly. Nrly ageo flow and temps that warm up there? Take the under for sure.

[jbenedet]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I'll be shocked if you are this warm given those 10m streamlines. That is the northern extent of the sfc front on the GFS.

If that's the furthest west the boundary progresses, then no we do not. I'd be interested to see the hrs from 18z to 0z...

[ORH_wxman]

You can prob lop about 8-10F off the sfc temps just to the north of the front depicted there....the models always go too warm in the vicinity of the CF.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can prob lop about 8-10F off the sfc temps just to the north of the front depicted there....the models always go too warm in the vicinity of the CF.

Same thing happened in the 12/23 ice event at BOS. nrly vectors with temps rising to above 32 draining from the source region? Take the under.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can prob lop about 8-10F off the sfc temps just to the north of the front depicted there....the models always go too warm in the vicinity of the CF.

There is going to be some naked twister with that front imo.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

If that's the furthest west the boundary progresses, then no we do not. I'd be interested to see the hrs from 18z to 0z...

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Same thing happened in the 12/23 ice event at BOS. nrly vectors with temps rising to above 32 draining from the source region? Take the under.

SSTs are only around 39, too...its not December, anymore....any easterly component to the wind shouldn't be a huge deal just back from the water.

[dendrite]

I mean, loop it for yourself.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFS13PA_12z/gfsloop.html

[jbenedet]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I mean, loop it for yourself.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFS13PA_12z/gfsloop.html

Ageo flow looks predominately out of the east for my latitude and points south, until the front passes, which is largely what I have been saying...IMO surface temps look too cold on the GFS before the front passes and temps crash.

[DomNH]

Yeah, N MA and S NH aren't going to even sniff freezing. We ping though. 

[powderfreak]

We snow.

[dryslot]

Oye vei

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Ageo flow looks predominately out of the east for my latitude and points south, until the front passes, which is largely what I have been saying...

God bless.

[JC-CT]

We rain.

[mahk_webstah]

wouldn't surprise me to see Dover stay all snow but Portsmouth mix or even go liquid.  But I see that as a worst case scenario.  John has had good insights on some set ups this year, but in addition to the longtime NE mets and weenieologists, GYX says "

Models coming into fairly good agreement on timing and track of
low pressure moving off the east coast on Wednesday. Looking
like a good dump of snow for much of the forecast area with
amounts generally in the 6 to 12 inch range. Expect snow to push
into southwest zones during mid to late morning then overspreading
the remainder of the forecast area through early afternoon.

Both GFS/ECMWF bring the rain/snow/sleet line right up to the
coast and perhaps just into portions of southern NH by late in
the day. The NAM seems a little overamplified at this time, but
will watch trends for sure. The possibility exists for lower
snowfall amounts in these areas, but warning-criteria snowfall
will probably happen before any mix occurs. Will be letting
Winter Storm Watches ride for this cycle...being mainly a third
and fourth period event and will let the day shift have a look
at the next model runs to focus in on warnings and how far
inland (if any) a potential mix of precip penetrates.

I only qualify as a weenie, not even a weenieologist, but I think my worst case in Dover is 6-8 followed by drizzle, but not a few hours of moderate rain.  At the new house in Boscawen 10" looks like a good bet.