dryslot Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Its either call school off or send them up here, There is no early dismissals, One of these deals where its starts here mid morning and is ripping by the time they get out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Apologies will need to be made to today's whipping boy jbenedet if the seacoast torches and warmth moves on up into Dover. Either way, j, produce a quick video for us tomorrow because many of us like ginx will be raining and will be wishing we were shoveling the board walk up in Hampton beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Whats up with the weekend disaster all of a sudden, damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah... we usually do half decent in SW flow events down here... but this has a different look. Maybe an inch before changeover. Seems this is less favorable than most. Great point. Taunton is usually good for a crusty 5 spot in these events. Can't win em all. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 12z Ukie looks way west. SLP tracks into NW CT/Western MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, jbenedet said: 12z Ukie looks way west. SLP tracks into NW CT/Western MA. Tossed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Tossed.... Lots of tossing today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, jbenedet said: 12z Ukie looks way west. SLP tracks into NW CT/Western MA. double tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: 12z Ukie looks way west. SLP tracks into NW CT/Western MA. That would suck but I've been here 10 years and that would be a rare track. Still, doesn't boost confidence to see the entire 12Z suite trend warmer. Still think it's a good thump here. I have no interest in 3" then pl/fzra. 5"+ or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 This is a SWFE, not a triple phaser - you'd think the models would have a pretty good handle on this by now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, jbenedet said: Lots of tossing today... You gotta embrace it man...get enthusiastic about it. Toss it as far as you can...pretend you are competing for the olympics in the discus throw and just give a huge rip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: That would suck but I've been here 10 years and that would be a rare track. Still, doesn't boost confidence to see the entire 12Z suite trend warmer. Still think it's a good thump here. I have no interest in 3" then pl/fzra. 5"+ or bust. I'm not running with the 12z UKIE, don't get me wrong. I'm just pointing out that guidance trended warmer and west at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 I don't expect much wavering from the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: This is a SWFE, not a triple phaser - you'd think the models would have a pretty good handle on this by now..... They have better handles on triple phasers than these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: This is a SWFE, not a triple phaser - you'd think the models would have a pretty good handle on this by now..... They have the upper and midlevels down pretty well, but these sfc low tracks over the interior won't happen...bring down the surface temps too to the north of that front...you'll be wedged frozen still at 00z tomorrow. You prob flip to IP/ZR at some point but it's not warming above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 well... I'm on the fence. I still think the NAM's worthy of this pattern.. It's been pretty damn good right down to the nuanced level on the last couple of translations, however endemic to the pattern/circumstantially it may happen to situate with that model's particular biases and so forth. That said, there is argument to be made with 1 ... boundary layer cold ... 2 models handling of the Ekman layer ... 3 model handling of ageostrophic 'sloshing' should poorly resolve meso lows that seem like a slam dunk in this flat wave scenario ... blah blah to anything I'm leaving out ... Summing all that up and dividing ...the cons and pros for cool(warm) solutions are about even money in my mind. I'm looking at most guidance since 00z and they all put the transition/ptype pretty deep inland ... but, we ply experience to hedge our bets ...possibly because we "want" the cold solutions in part - can't remove the human condition entirely. Now cast is important in this thing. It is in all systems of course...but in particular, when a track of 30 mile variation means the difference between 8" of snow, .5" accretion and 33.1 "Ray"nfall ..well, it's obviously something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 JMA metogram for HFD, never gets above freezing, .47 snow profile .31 ice sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 This is probably way overdone in the ZR zones, but I like where the front is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Tossed.... Probably .15 MM snow before ice rain looking in depth for I 84 North, Big L though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: I don't expect much wavering from the Euro. You’d think it follows suit with most of the other guidance today of colder surface temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: You’d think it follows suit with most of the other guidance today of colder surface temps Yeah, I don't think its going Ukie on us, That would be a siggy shift back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You’d think it follows suit with most of the other guidance today of colder surface temps Euro was already pretty cold at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You’d think it follows suit with most of the other guidance today of colder surface temps Not one model was colder at 12z for your back yard or mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 yeah, ... eating the pistol tip ... I'd go 51% and lean colder. that lean doesn't mean Ansel Adams photo art necessarily... but I don't mess around with ageo flows and if given an excuse ... you need like (perhaps literally) order of magnitude LESS force in ageo to off-set llv WAA efforts... entirely. I swore I'd never be taken by willful punches into cold boundary layers EAST of the Berks again back in 1994 and frankly, that doctrine has save sanity on more occasions than not. So...seeing as we have a source and draining going on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You’d think it follows suit with most of the other guidance today of colder surface temps this is the latest Swiss cheese model, that is what a SWFE looks like at its warmest point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: This is probably way overdone in the ZR zones, but I like where the front is. This looks like a completely different event. I'm lost looking at this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: this is the latest Swiss cheese model, that is what a SWFE looks like at its warmest point That swiss army knife is pretty sharp on where it cuts off the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Not one model was colder at 12z for your back yard or mine. Dude.. it’s you against the world. Still time to bail man Pope or die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Dude.. it’s you against the world. Still time to bail man Yea but you're on the same side as "the world". That's pretty damn good justification to be on the other side... Gynx also flagged warm potential IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Pope on the ropes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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