February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yesterday it was Friday and Monday. We said congrats Freak. SE ridge ftl 

you got you days all mixed up

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

beautiful -PNA longer term. It's kind of cool to see such a smooth thing on the 360hr ensemble mean. It's usually not this far southwest 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

42 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We are all above normal

We havent lacked precip, thats for sure. Just need to beat down the se ridge and we in business for March.

[dendrite]

35 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Pretty comical to see people using 3+day guidance verbatim for backdoor CAD events...We torch a few days and suddenly climo is tossed out the window....

 

Yeah I'll take the under Thursday on 40s...I just hope we keep the forcing south.

[Whineminster]

18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah I'll take the under Thursday on 40s...I just hope we keep the forcing south.

Up at Stinson Lake this weekend...amazing how there is like 0 snow in Tilton but less than 20 miles north its game on.  

Too bad it'll all be gone everywhere by Thursday. 

[jbenedet]

28 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah I'll take the under Thursday on 40s...I just hope we keep the forcing south.

Heh, and that's with a high temp around 12 a.m. Thursday. Looks like 20's for us during the day...

As crazy as this may seem, I think N Mid Atlantic and southern most points of this sub forum (away from the coast) are at highest risk for frozen precip on Thurs. Not us. But we'll see...

[SJonesWX]

10 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Up at Stinson Lake this weekend...amazing how there is like 0 snow in Tilton but less than 20 miles north its game on.  

Too bad it'll all be gone everywhere by Thursday. 

that area is great for snow retention, especially the higher elevations. i have never been, but i hear the snowmobiling in the Baker River area is in great shape as of yesterday

[Ginx snewx]

People at work talking about being upper 60s today and 70s tomorrow, good luck with that in SCT. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Oh no question...  it will go from 64 to 32 in the 2-meter temperature at less than 24 hours ... no problem.  This time of year?  come on -

[HIPPYVALLEY]

 Dense fog and clouds keeping us upper 40s so far.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Really good CAD in Maine for that one. Tamarack in a good spot. 

15" behind Dryslot (opposite of climo), lots of catching up to do.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

Up at Stinson Lake this weekend...amazing how there is like 0 snow in Tilton but less than 20 miles north its game on.  

Too bad it'll all be gone everywhere by Thursday. 

There may be 0" at the torched parking lots, but there's a general 8-10" depth here.

[Ginx snewx]

59 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 Dense fog and clouds keeping us upper 40s so far.

Peeps down here gonna be disappointed by all the 70s talk from our local stations

[STILL N OF PIKE]

62 ASH

Yes please

[dendrite]

57/51 at the 2 1500' stations here. A puff of wind will shoot the lower els to 60+ easy.

[CT Rain]

The NAM is pretty cold on Thursday. Icy/Snowy by night? 

[Typhoon Tip]

not sure if anyone's notice this or not ...but the NAO was delayed as far as how it may stress the pattern/effect on the flow... This 12z GFS continues that.  Monday's system is now allowed to penetrate eastern Canada via the Lakes route instead of diving ESE like the runs prior to 00z ... 

Let's monitor this NAO lie day by day and watch it squished to 18 hours worth of it in mid May when it sends seasonal mirth assassinating BD down to Mertle Beach

[TheCloser24]

12z Gggem redevelops next week's system south of New England as a winter storm.

[Damage In Tolland]

52 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Peeps down here gonna be disappointed by all the 70s talk from our local stations

NAM has 55-60 tomorrow with low clouds 

[Sugarloaf1989]

56F here with a sun/clouds mix.

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

NAM has 55-60 tomorrow with low clouds 

I say take them up away from the south coast.

[jbenedet]

21 minutes ago, TheCloser24 said:

12z Gggem redevelops next week's system south of New England as a winter storm.

Dare I say I think the 12z GGEM has a much better handle on the Sunday event than the 12z GFS at the moment. I'm expecting guidance to come around towards the 12z GGEM over next few days...

[Typhoon Tip]

funny ...i haven't watched the weather channel in years ... but, it was on television down in the cafe at lunch... and here was their extended out look temperatures for "Your area" they featured in their graphics.

     WED 21| THU 22| FRI 23| SAT 24| SUN 25| MON 26| TUE 27|WED CLIMO
N/X  48  68| 37  40| 22  40| 32  51| 36  47| 34  48| 28  43|

[ma blizzard]

Just now, jbenedet said:

Dare I say I think the 12z GGEM has a much better handle on the Sunday event than the 12z GFS at the moment. I'm expecting guidance to come around towards the 12z GGEM over next few days...

agreed - def too early to punt that threat north of the pike for sure 

[Typhoon Tip]

I think the models that are warm and taking things unfavorable for snow definitely tapping into the right trend idea ... 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Man, if we can get the pieces together underneath the block....long duration events can unfold. Even some backing in from our NE. Lets go baby, one time.

[Typhoon Tip]

Could also be days and days of drizzle and flurries with raw NE wind...  

[weathafella]

KBOS up to 65.  Feels nice!

[jbenedet]

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think the models that are warm and taking things unfavorable for snow definitely tapping into the right trend idea ... 

Specific context aside, it would be persistence for the GFS and especially Euro to have too much UL ridging over our heads when Canadain suface HP is in the mix, in the medium range guidance...

Not saying it can't happen for that reason alone obviously, but it's worth hedging with this in mind until proven otherwise imo...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Could also be days and days of drizzle and flurries with raw NE wind...  

I do worry about the cupply of cold being cutoff but Scooter said it will be cold enough to support  our emotional well-being.