Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,540
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Gonzalez Brittany
    Newest Member
    Gonzalez Brittany
    Joined

North Balti Zen
 Share

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

I thought I remembered some sort of water restrictions a long time ago, and found this article from 1999:
Washingtonpost.com: Region Learned Lessons From Past Droughts

I was 19 at the time so didn't really care about water :). Thought the article had some good insight into what happens when we get dry. One thing people around here really don't think about are wells. Even here in howard county the entire western part of the county is not served by public water. Might be 20-25% of the county population.

It is funny, that article was posted on August 17th, 1999.  In August/Sept of 1999 at DCA there was over 15" of rain :)  

All we need to do is complain!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, MN Transplant said:

It is funny, that article was posted on August 17th, 1999.  In August/Sept of 1999 at DCA there was over 15" of rain :)  

All we need to do is complain!

LOL, if only that worked in winter as well. I edited the post to change the link to the whole archive. Its kind of fun reading through it from start to "omg too much rain".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I think it is precisely because we are in a relatively wet part of the country and don't get droughts that the dry periods seem so anomalous.  Our vegetation is acclimated to regular precipitation and then there are H2O's water supply comments.

The concern arises if the dry pattern continues into summer.  That's where the evapotranspiration maxes out.  And the other problem is that as we go into later summer the chances for organized convection nearly vanish.  So, you get only spotty dry relief.

I guess I'm saying that this is a notable start to the year and could portend problems down the road, but a few well-placed systems could also bring us right back to normal.  So, only a slightly elevated level of concern so far.

Exactly - by late summer we're banking on tropical systems, which might be an issue this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The good news, I just ran a very rudimentary analysis of Jan-Apr vs May-July precip, and there is a positive correlation but it is so slight as to pretty much consider it random.

May and June are our wettest months and developing Nino can’t hurt that. So we could fill that deficit in a hurry if things align. But if not, will be a crispy July-August.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, mattie g said:

Really the point I'm trying to make is that we don't really "drought." We get dry, but how often are things so bad that we need to think of it as a drought? And if we're like 5" below normal precip over a few months, people start talking about it, but if we're 5" above normal precip over a few months, there's virtually no discussion.

I'm definitely playing devil's advocate in here, but referring to dry periods as "drought" does trigger me :lol:

Got it.

But, it's not us. "Drought" is used by NOAA, USDA, et al. when specific conditions are met. We've been below normal since late fall (actually we've only had one above normal month since August,) but we weren't in "drought" conditions until mid-late March. And even still, it's not the whole region.

If we were in a region where it wasn't constantly wet, and we were 5" above normal, it would be talked about as flooding would likely start to be a concern.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Its a Breeze said:

Got it.

But, it's not us. "Drought" is used by NOAA, USDA, et al. when specific conditions are met. We've been below normal since late fall (actually we've only had one above normal month since August,) but we weren't in "drought" conditions until mid-late March. And even still, it's not the whole region.

If we were in a region where it wasn't constantly wet, and we were 5" above normal, it would be talked about as flooding would likely start to be a concern.

I am happy to see more people connect with the reality of an expanding NOAA classified "moderate drought" over northern and eastern Virginia. 3 weeks ago, I seemed to be the only one concerned. Droughts cost billions of dollars every year. They create financial disaster for the people who feed America. I live in an agricultural area and have good friends who produce the crops that feed America, including Mattie.  Drought causes crop failures and results in higher prices for everyone at the supermarket.

Depending on severity, drought can severely affect every person in many ways.

I was friends with the former state climatologist for Virginia, the late  Dr. Patrick Michaels.  Dr. Michaels pointed out that to have a good growing season Virginia needs to go into the growing season wet, because of very high evaporation rates in May through August.

We are going into the growing season very dry this year. The last 45 days since March 1, I have received 30% of normal rainfall. We are on the way to be declared a drought disaster area before the summer is over unless this pattern breaks down. It probably will change because of the changing Enso condition.  We can only pray for this change, for You, Me and even Mattie.             

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, nj2va said:

image.thumb.gif.e099e0d0f0d629288f6cd0f200df4c7d.gif

The CPC is wrong more often than right with these 6-10 and 8-14 day maps.

If we had received the rain predicted by the 6 - 10 day CPC forecast year to date, we would be 5 inches above normal vs. 5 inches below normal.

3 hours ago, nj2va said:

image.thumb.gif.e099e0d0f0d629288f6cd0f200df4c7d.gif

The CPC is wrong more often than right with these 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts.

If we had received rainfall year to date based on these 6 - 10 day maps, we would be 5 inches above normal vs. 5 inches below normal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...