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Potential 1/17-1/18 threat


BullCityWx
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8 minutes ago, Amos83 said:

Roads all over the CLT area are treated right now. It's not like GSP is saying it isn't going to do anything. They have ALL day  tomorrow to watch and see how things are unfolding downstream. 

Most models show GSP starting as rain, so that will wash the salt/ brine off the street. Then wet/snowy roads flash freeze. Horrific travel on Wednesday morning!

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13 minutes ago, Red1976Red said:

Happened a lot before the year 2010. When it does, it hurts. A lot. 

I remember back in the mid 2000's when I lived in Martinsville, VA there was system like this that had a heavy band that dissipated right at the crest of the Blue Ridge (About 15 miles west of me) and then reformed about 5 miles south of my location. We ended up with flurries while 10 miles south of me near the North Carolina line they got 6 inches. That one hurt because they had forcasted 4 inches. These kind of systems can tear your heart out but they can bust on the high end too.

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Just now, Cold Rain said:

No.  It’s showing the most snow.

It's hilarious how folks gravitate to the model that shows the most snow. Not saying that it's going to be wrong necessarily but how many times has that worked out for us in the SE!? From what I understand it's similar to the Euro but is lower resolution than the Euro.

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3 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said:

It's hilarious how folks gravitate to the model that shows the most snow. Not saying that it's going to be wrong necessarily but how many times has that worked out for us in the SE!? From what I understand it's similar to the Euro but is lower resolution than the Euro.

Not very many times.  But it’s fun to look at and shows the potential of what can happen, I guess.  I’d be excited if it showed half a foot over my house.  But unfortunately, it spits out a few hundredths, so I’m inclined to toss it! :)  It actually didn’t do all that well with the last storm.  Hopefully, it continues to trend better and wetter over here.

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1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

RGEM is slower and is much higher with the QPF all across NC, has a nice coastal to boot, its the kinda run we all wanna happen....

Eastern areas probably don't want a storm as amped as RGEM given how far west the upper low cuts off.  Western Piedmont and mtns will definitely want this as precip will back build as gulf moisture is drawn in.

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1 minute ago, NCSNOW said:

It use to be comical but the gfs just keeps sliding futher and futher into the abyss in terms of relevance. To me the ukmet,euro,eps,icon,navgem,Can,nam have more of my trust for any event. The icon and espeacilly navgem and nam have really stepped up their game this season

I agree, really impressed with the Nam this year.

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I stated it before and I’ll state it again. I really believe the models will have to play catch-up in the qpf department. This thing will trend right until game time. Some folks have had some very good input thus far this afternoon and evening. The models are struggling with downsloping effect, etc.. it’s almost like the summer time, whereas they have a squall line approach, hit the mountains, lose intensity and then reintensify as they move east of the mountains. I do believe if there is a heavy snow band heading east from TN it will not literally disinigrate. I’d say from at least Frosty, to WNC Snow and even some folks from Winston Salem/Greensboro north will have some great ratios to cash in moreso than some others on the board. If the ICON or RGEM come to fruition watch out! 

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Not sure if this has been posted but; from RAH:

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

As of 255 PM Monday...

 

...Snow Accumulations of 1 to 2 Inches Possible Across the Piedmont

and Northern Coastal Plain Late Tuesday Night Through Wednesday

Afternoon...

 

Closed upper low over the Upper MS Valley will transition into an

open but still highly amplified shortwave trough as it progresses

east through the region on Wednesday. On the heels of a strong

Arctic cold front crossing the area Tuesday night, the chance for

snow will increase across central NC late Tuesday night (western

Piedmont/Triad)and into the day on Wednesday(central and northern

Coastal Plain), as an ana-frontal precip band, driven in response to

the accompanying vigorous shortwave dynamics and deep layer

frontogenesis, moves west to east through the area.

 

Confidence is increasing slightly as NWP model guidance is starting

to come into better agreement in both timing and liquid equivalents.

Current timing suggest precip onset and transition to all snow

between 06 to 09z in the Triad, around 12z(daybreak) in the

Triangle, and then 12 to 15z in the east/southeast, with a 6 to 9

hour window of precip expected thereafter before

significant/aggressive drying aloft overwhelms the area, ending

precip.

 

Deterministic model guidance is right in line with the the SREF

ensemble mean of a 0.10 to 0.20" liquid qpf across the area, 20-30

percent of which will likely not go to frozen accumulation owing to

rain or rain/snow mix expected at onset. However, given strong

column cooling, once precip changes over to all snow, snow ratios

are apt to be high, averaging 12-15:1. This would result in the

potential for a swath of light snowfall accumulations across the

northern two-thirds of the forecast area, with amounts ranging from

a half inch along a line extending from Albemarle to Southern Pine

to Goldsboro, to as much 1.5 to 2.0" across the far northern-

Virginia bordering counties.

 

Potential other scenarios that could unfold are: If more progressive

solutions similar to that of the GFS verify, which quickly dries out

the <-10C ice nucleation layer, we could see more sleet or snow

mixed with sleet, which would significantly reduce snow

accumulations across the area. Barring no major forecast/model

changes, a winter weather advisory will likely be needed for these

areas for Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.

 

Additionally, the Arctic high building in the Southern US in the

wake of this system will support very cold temperatures and wind

chill Wednesday and Wednesday night, especially across the NC

Piedmont. Temperatures during the day on Wednesday will range from

upper 20s/near 30 NW to mid/upper 30s SE, with NWLY wind gusts in

the teens to lower 20s making it feel like more like teens to lower

30s. Lows Wednesday night are expected to be in the teens to lower

20s, with wind chill values approaching the single digits across

much of central NC. With temperatures this cold, any snow on roads

and bridges/overpasses will make road conditions treacherous

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4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Brad Panovich’s 40% call of nothing is going to not age well, IMO.

Every model cycle the trends just keep getting better and better. Hard to beleive cause our luck it's usually the oppossite. Interested to see the oz nam and RGEM. Like wow said RGEM is a dream for us. Nam is not to far off. Maybe we can knock one over the fence for a change

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