Jan 8th Ice/Mix/Rain Event

[NorthArlington101]

All the globals have some precip in the area with borderline surface temps. Let's work our way towards unnecessarily closed schools and photogenic tree branches. 

[BristowWx]

39 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

All the globals have some precip in the area with borderline surface temps. Let's work our way towards unnecessarily closed schools and photogenic tree branches. 

Hooefully they will brine the roads. They aren’t quite to the level of pumpkin seeds.  

[WEATHER53]

What I think will happen in this departing Arctic high is this. We will get several hours of snow first then a changeover to sleet and then rain

[peribonca]

There are going to be lots of radar hallucinations if this moisture really fizzles out west of apps as Nam thinks

[yoda]

Looks like a period of wintry mix on the 18z GFS 

[Bob Chill]

Rgem would be a glaze got most areas away from the UHI areas. Looks like about .05 burbs and .10 NW. Temps stay below freezing from the fall line westward. Sucks that the moisture dried up on this one. I'd prefer dealing with temp issues and not lack of precip issues. 

[87storms]

30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Rgem would be a glaze got most areas away from the UHI areas. Looks like about .05 burbs and .10 NW. Temps stay below freezing from the fall line westward. Sucks that the moisture dried up on this one. I'd prefer dealing with temp issues and not lack of precip issues. 

i haven't followed this one closely, but we might do better with ice with light precip. it doesn't take much to cause major issues if we get some street glaze.

[mappy]

Is this a thing? 

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

Is this a thing? 

if your worried about "storm mode" modding....

no worries.

looks light but potentially enough ice to cause a stir

Next weekend is what you need to worry about.  Look at GEPS/GEFS.  lol

[Bob Chill]

41 minutes ago, mappy said:

Is this a thing? 

It could be disruptive. You might get a period of light snow up your way. If we pick up .1 then there's going to be a waiting line for xrays. Ground is frozen like a rock. I can envision rain freezing on contact on sidewalks even if temps are 33-34. 

[WxWatcher007]

21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It could be disruptive. You might get a period of light snow up your way. If we pick up .1 then there's going to be a waiting line for xrays. Ground is frozen like a rock. I can envision rain freezing on contact on sidewalks even if temps are 33-34. 

I agree. After ten or so days in the freezer surfaces especially outside of the city could be pretty rough. It doesn’t take a lot to cause problems.

[Scraff]

My kids care about one thing. School closed Monday? Odds? They’re asking me like I’m Nostradamus or something. Said let me bounce it off my expert crew and I’ll get back to them. 

[NorthArlington101]

My kids care about one thing. School closed Monday? Odds? They’re asking me like I’m Nostradamus or something. Said let me bounce it off my expert crew and I’ll get back to them. 

People can correct me if I’m wrong, but it seems like the timing on this is more a mid-day thing now, no? Plenty of time for things to change but I’d think a cancellation would require an advisory or a change in timing.

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

People can correct me if I’m wrong, but it seems like the timing on this is more a mid-day thing now, no? Plenty of time for things to change but I’d think a cancellation would require an advisory or a change in timing.

 

Yea, not much chance at closures. Onset would be noonish at the earliest unless every single model is wrong at 48 hour leads. Roads will be fine too. There's enough brine and salt out there to melt Greenland's ice cap. 

[nw baltimore wx]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, not much chance at closures. Onset would be noonish at the earliest unless every single model is wrong at 48 hour leads. Roads will be fine too. There's enough brine and salt out there to melt Greenland's ice cap. 

Just a guess, but after school activities might be in jeopardy.

[leesburg 04]

Where's the moisture with this thing?

[mattie g]

20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, not much chance at closures. Onset would be noonish at the earliest unless every single model is wrong at 48 hour leads. Roads will be fine too. There's enough brine and salt out there to melt Greenland's ice cap. 

But the sidewalks. Think about the kids that have to walk on the SIDEWALKS!!!!!

[RevWarReenactor]

My rule for winter storms.....if there is plenty of precipitation but temps might be an issue or if the temps are good but precipitation might be an issue; the storm is worth watching.

when BOTH precip and temps might be an issue, it’s time to say “next”

[WxWatcher007]

18 minutes ago, mattie g said:

But the sidewalks. Think about the kids that have to walk on the SIDEWALKS!!!!!

School districts 

Mattie G

[Bob Chill]

16 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

My rule for winter storms.....if there is plenty of precipitation but temps might be an issue or if the temps are good but precipitation might be an issue; the storm is worth watching.

when BOTH precip and temps might be an issue, it’s time to say “next”

Why are you reading this thread then?

[Bob Chill]

37 minutes ago, mattie g said:

But the sidewalks. Think about the kids that have to walk on the SIDEWALKS!!!!!

Kids don't walk anymore unless its sunny, 72 degrees, and low humidity and even then they ask for a ride. Times have changed man 

[WxUSAF]

14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Kids don't walk anymore unless its sunny, 72 degrees, and low humidity and even then they ask for a ride. Times have changed man 

My 7 year old son wanted me to drive his friend home this evening who lives one street away. I said he  was going to walk him home and gave him the father-young son appropriate version of sack up.

[NorthArlington101]

3k is in for a few hours of freezing drizzle showers.

6 hours earlier then the GFS too, congrats to Scuddz's kids. 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

3k is in for a few hours of freezing drizzle showers.

6 hours earlier then the GFS too, congrats to Scuddz's kids. 

Does the FRZA while its below 30 too... strange temp gradient.

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Kids don't walk anymore unless its sunny, 72 degrees, and low humidity and even then they ask for a ride. Times have changed man 

But I heard that Fairfax County closed on Friday because all those kids who walk a mile to school would have ended up with frostbite bad enough to leave them looking like freezer-burned chicken thighs. I feel so gullible.

On topic: Freezing rain is kinda meh, but school is going to close on Monday. Just because.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Kids don't walk anymore unless its sunny, 72 degrees, and low humidity and even then they ask for a ride. Times have changed man 

My students think they should get off when it's hot, cold, snows even when it's not sticking, raining or there is a breeze of 5 mph. Some of them also complain about having to walk 15 feet to get something in my room. 

Bottom line is they just want off. Duh. Why the adults running things and parents humor their attitude is beyond me. 

 

[yoda]

GFS still brings what looks to be a light wintry mix through late afternoon into evening 

[yoda]

RGEM brings a decent wintry mix from 16z to 22z Mon... Looks like a tenth of an inch of ice... Maybe up to 0.15 in the valleys... i81 to i95 on the RGEM has icing potential

[Jebman]

10 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Rgem would be a glaze got most areas away from the UHI areas. Looks like about .05 burbs and .10 NW. Temps stay below freezing from the fall line westward. Sucks that the moisture dried up on this one. I'd prefer dealing with temp issues and not lack of precip issues. 

I have learned my lesson. I would rather deal with the rain/snow line in Dale City, than have a super strong Siberian High that ends up giving Charleston 4 inches of pow. NO MORE SNOW for the southeast! NONE! Sure I am a Selfish Bastid, and Damn Proud of it too!

I'll cheerfully take my sleet and white asteroids so that the rest of the subforum can rejoice in 18 inches of pure pow and winds to blow it around for 3 weeks.

It will be well worth it when I hear reports that Chill can't even get out of his house because of a monster 25 foot snowdrift. The sleet, slush and torrential 29 degrees rainfall in my backyard with no ice accretion at all will be well worth it lol.

I am actually excited about a 60 percent chance of RAIN Monday night, because it means that farther southeast gets lots of rain and even milder weather! Its worth it! They hogged the snow down there. Now, they can hog some rain and some mild.

[leesburg 04]

Monday has trended a fair amount colder