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H2O

JAN 4th Coastal

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1 minute ago, Interstate said:

The 3K NAM gives Baltimore 7 inches (Kuchera)

Hug away. And if we keep getting a few more pushes north and west........

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3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

shoot me.  go ahead...i dare ya.

w/ all due respect, we are close enough for this to have SOME validity.  Should make some of you smile.  small but nice tick west that brings some that were out....in.  3k is best of the nest so....hug at will.

nam3km_asnow_neus_32.png

Due North yikes...can a brother get a 15 mile shift?

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3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Most epic cutoff ever. That won’t verify. 

yeah when i posted the map, i thought the same.  sorta why i posted.  weather snow maps arent created w/ straight edge/rulers.

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3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Most epic cutoff ever. That won’t verify. 

trust me I've experienced insane cutoffs like this and they do exist and can happen.

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Living on the edge is brutal and 95 probably marks the true edge and not what the 3k is showing. 12z need to break at least a little in favor for the west of 95 crew...I hate this storm. 

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6 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

in fairness a tug here and a tug there and it can make things go boom.  :).

3k looks great and also shows better snows heading up into NE Pa which may be a sign of that northern tick in the qpf fields due to the strength of the storm.

That's the thing about (potentially) intense deep layer frontogenesis...

Often times what you end up seeing is a tighter gradient than even the meso models are indicating. Wetter on the west side (east in this case), drier on the dry side (west).

Convection over the Gulf Stream could also disrupt what would be a nice isentropic trajectory feeding into the I-95 corridor from the northeast.

 

What I am hoping for is a nice, intensifying back edge deformation band that will give us UVVs up in the dendritic growth zone layer. Something that could give us higher than climo SLRs (maybe 15-1...20-1 is awfully tough for this area outside an Arctic clipper). Here in Crofton/central AA County I still think a 1-2" forecast is a safe call, but I can envision an aforementioned scenario that would bring amounts closer to 4+ inches. 

The other thing to consider -- how long will it be snowing? 6 hours isn't a lot if we're having a difficult time hitting 1/2 inch per hour consistently (which is considered moderate snow).

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I didn't realize how far west I am until I saw that map.  most times I am too far east.  that would be painful but I have to hope RGEM is closer to reality.

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2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

another map like that and I'm going to start wishing for an EAST trend

if history has any merit in forecasts....your wish will come true at 0z.

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10 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

 


I was seeing that on Bufkit this morning for the 6z 3K run too. Started around 7-9z and carried into the morning. This might surprise along 95 me thinks.


.

 

We can only pray. I’m still expecting to wake up to brown ground with my tiny little remnant snow patches from Saturday. But damn I hope I’m wrong.

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2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I didn't realize how far west I am until I saw that map.  most times I am too far east.  that would be painful but I have to hope RGEM is closer to reality.

The cut off is literally my backyard.  You know how depressing it would be to get up in below zero temps with no snow on the ground, only to have to drive to work in Tysons where there'd be snow on the ground?  Well, at least it'd give me an excuse to go to work. 

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33 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I love you dude but do you set your alarm to post this on the hour?

If you mean my general pessimism towards this storm, I am sorry if it's been a bit too much. I don't want to ruin the fun for others. I'll try to tone it down. But this was the first time I talked about the convective feedback issue that's been bartered about a lot this morning at all.  

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3 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

That's the thing about (potentially) intense deep layer frontogenesis...

Often times what you end up seeing is a tighter gradient than even the meso models are indicating. Wetter on the west side (east in this case), drier on the dry side (west).

Convection over the Gulf Stream could also disrupt what would be a nice isentropic trajectory feeding into the I-95 corridor from the northeast.

 

What I am hoping for is a nice, intensifying back edge deformation band that will give us UVVs up in the dendritic growth zone layer. Something that could give us higher than climo SLRs (maybe 15-1...20-1 is awfully tough for this area outside an Arctic clipper). Here in Crofton/central AA County I still think a 1-2" forecast is a safe call, but I can envision an aforementioned scenario that would bring amounts closer to 4+ inches. 

The other thing to consider -- how long will it be snowing? 6 hours isn't a lot if we're having a difficult time hitting 1/2 inch per hour consistently (which is considered moderate snow).

thanks for this info.  Didnt realize the meso's struggle w/ it as you state.  Interesting (and potentially painful).

You suggest defo band and that is not something we've seen with this storm as the speed seems to hinder that from setting up.  6z's and 12zs seem to show a little of what you suggest.  I've not looked at surface, but maybe the "brick wall" to the north might slow it down enough to aid in this??  Your thoughts.

 

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Just now, NovaTarHeel said:

The cut off is literally my backyard.  You know how depressing it would be to get up in below zero temps with no snow on the ground, only to have to drive to work in Tysons where there'd be snow on the ground?  Well, at least it'd give me an excuse to go to work. 

sometimes your flush and sometimes your bust.  that snow map represents life to some degree and how things can either break in your favor or just break. 

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

sometimes your flush and sometimes your bust.  that snow map represents life to some degree and how things can either break in your favor or just break. 

most of the time we get flushed

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HUGE win for DC/95 corridor if they see accumulating.  While I know this thread went off the rails a bit, :lol:, we had some good discussions.  Thanks all.  

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6 minutes ago, Interstate said:

according to the 3K NAM... Baltimore would get more than Boston... that would be great but we know that is wrong...lol

NAM has the mid level warm front nosing into Boston and flipping them to mangled flakes and sleet for a time.  That's why BWI gets more than BOS.

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

NAM has the mid level warm front nosing into Boston and flipping them to mangled flakes and sleet for a time.  That's why BWI gets more than BOS.

I understand... but I dont see that happening

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7 minutes ago, Interstate said:

according to the 3K NAM... Baltimore would get more than Boston... that would be great but we know that is wrong...lol

Not saying it's right but big storms do some weird things. The height of the storm is during the most rapid pressure falls. Much of that happens before it gets to Boston. At some point it's going to vertically stack and then occlude and the big show is over by then. I still think the NE gets a good shellacking and could be the winner but I have a hunch the biggest precip/snow totals will be probably be along the coast south of NYC. 

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14 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

thanks for this info.  Didnt realize the meso's struggle w/ it as you state.  Interesting (and potentially painful).

You suggest defo band and that is not something we've seen with this storm as the speed seems to hinder that from setting up.  6z's and 12zs seem to show a little of what you suggest.  I've not looked at surface, but maybe the "brick wall" to the north might slow it down enough to aid in this??  Your thoughts.

 

Yeah, that certainly is plausible and I would certainly look for (hope for) model trends slowing down the system during the rapid cyclogenesis phase. We need a slower system no doubt. 

The other thing about the back-side deformation band(s) -- sometimes depending on the strength of the system and streamline/trajectory into the DC-Balt corridor we can get in on the action still even as the low has moved well up east of NJ (if not farther N-NE).

The problem figuring any of this out towards I-95 (how much and where) is the frontogenetic aspect and likely banded structure, only this time (unlike the event in early December) having to possibly deal with convection. It may be well offshore, but it could screw up the band structures west of the low (for better or worse, depending on YBY in relation to where the best bands set up).

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Kuchera has 4" of snow at DCA per 12z 3km NAM lol

Get your protractor and magnifying glass out yoda! RGEM black and white is coming out!

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