40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Pretty similar EPS to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Lost some tuckies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Ugh, western solutions have thinned out on gefs and eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Going the wrong way, I said i would give this until 0z Monday before folding the tent and will stand by that, Eastern areas are still in, But that's waning as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: Going the wrong way, I said i would give this until 0z Monday before folding the tent and will stand by that eastern areas are still in, But that's waning as well. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Won't let me upload 12z snowfall, but it ticked east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The hefty amounts are still near the east Mass coast, though...its just cut down on the Kev/Ginxy special moderate crap over sne...which is likely BS, anyway. Its better over down east ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Won't let me upload 12z snowfall, but it ticked east. 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Got that snow map with dynamic ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 happy new year to you all, unfortunate trends tonight, i will keep watching for another 24 hours, well we will all be here anyways PS good to hear that Rick is doing well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 hour ago, Roger Smith said: At this point I think the most likely track is probably a lot closer than most models are showing to southern New England, and it may turn into a huge snowfall event. My reasoning is that indications are already showing up that cyclogenesis has started over the eastern GOMEX and both the northern and chasing energy centers will be drawn in at even faster rates than models are showing. This may explode a low near Hatteras rather than out to sea, and lead to a track straight up the Gulf Stream towards Cape Cod. The various model flirtations with extreme low pressure likely mean that this will deepen to the 950s as early as 3rd near Hatteras and the end result will be a widespread northeast U.S. blizzard. It will slide inland over Maine but highly occluded at that point, and end up in the western Gulf of St Lawrence. When will models show this evolution? Late 1st or early 2nd. This may resemble the Jan 1978 superstorm on a track from east of Florida to Maine instead of Alabama to Lake Huron. I think there's too much energy stored up here, waiting to explode, for some of these OTS scenarios, and the SSTs are anomalously warm on the east coast. It will try to hug the coast long enough to force the flow around it rather than pushing it along. I agree with some of the points here. A consolidated sub 960 low is going go to try and follow the largest source of heat the GS. The big question still is which side. A 150 mile difference either side of the Gulf Stream in an extremely dynamic system has huge implications. Using examples like 12/10, 2/13 and 01/15 a major cutoff exists west of the main deform. I think the Far East solutions and the double barrel messes are very unlikely. But if we do see a 40/60ish track on the eastern side of what seems resonable this will be a scraper for all but Nantucket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Y'all aren't giving up already are you? I'm flying out to Stowe next week and still have hope for 8"+ out of this one. 84 hours out still. Need 100 miles for a coastal blizzard and good snows to interior NNE. Even if we were at 48 hours I would have some hope in PVD for 8"+. Good chunk of the ensembles would be a fun start to 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Easy come, easy go. I never have hope that storms organizing off FL will have great impact on WNE. Chalk this up to another. At least we still have the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Keep the faith, lets see this S stream build the heights ahead and tickle this backward. Should this stay on the map, im not turning my back on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Keep the faith, lets see this S stream build the heights ahead and tickle this backward. Should this stay on the map, im not turning my back on this You’d be silly to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 When will all energy be onshore and sampled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Don't turn your back on love unless that's where you want it. wpc discussion is good I think for ema and ene. Looks like they are thinking warning snows quite possible almost back to con. Really interesting to see how this really won't resolve until 12z tomorrow. One of the more complicated set ups in memory. I hold onto what the man is doing in the next 48 hours, the steadiness of the Cmc and ukie to some extent, and also the possibility of one low closer to the coast, and that strong lows can tuck in more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: When will all energy be onshore and sampled? This afternoon. Also, what an incredible bomb the Euro was. Obviously not what we wanted to see track wise, but mid 940s before reaching our latitude is insane! 100 miles west and a lot would be in business. Hopefully the northern stream looks better with the higher resolution sampling tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The 6z GEFS are pretty crazy when compared to yesterday's runs. From high probabilities of 6"+ between BOS-PVD yesterday to next to nothing this morning with maybe 2" near TAN on the mean. It now has the best snow probabilities in NNE into southern Quebec with the cyclonic NW flow stuff for places like Pittsburg, NH and Jay Peak. The windshield wiper effect has been crazy with this storm over the past 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 This storm blows.... so has this winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Wpc didn't seem to be leaning much on the gfs. Tomorrow morning we wake up to something clearer. The nam is good for us early yes? And that has been consistent. Maybe even 18z gets better data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 That euro depiction is basically poetic in the way it screws us. Fits the winter to this point... Mid Atlantic gets good snow, it skips over this area and goes to town NE. Like I said yesterday, the low being so far offshore concerned me. We’d either see the best stuff consolidate closer to the coast, or the good stuff would move out (which is what is happening) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Is that s/w in the Great Lakes acting as a kicker on the GFS? It looks great until hr 78, shooting north on a benchmark trajectory, then suddenly shoots out due East. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: That euro depiction is basically poetic in the way it screws us. Fits the winter to this point... Mid Atlantic gets good snow, it skips over this area and goes to town NE. Like I said yesterday, the low being so far offshore concerned me. We’d either see the best stuff consolidate closer to the coast, or the good stuff would move out (which is what is happening) I thought you'd decided not to check in until Tuesday night? None of the runs to date have sampled the s/w's well, as far as we can tell. Maybe luck is on their side, and their interpolation will be bang on, but I wouldn't bet on it. We'll have a clear picture tonight and if she gone at 12z tomorrow, we can bury this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Is that s/w in the Great Lakes acting as a kicker on the GFS? It looks great until hr 78, shooting north on a benchmark trajectory, then suddenly shoots out due East. Interesting. Good question. Perhaps THE question. The sensitivity thing was focused on strength of shortwave I think. Gfs and nam have both sharpened the short waves in the 24-48 hour timeframe yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: Good question. Perhaps THE question. The sensitivity thing was focused on strength of shortwave I think. Gfs and nam have both sharpened the short waves in the 24-48 hour timeframe yes? From what I've seen, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I only looked at the EURO 500mb chart and fully expected it to be good. Then i came on here and its all doom and gloom. Those snow maps are horrific. Wtf happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 EPS looked pretty good to me. All I need to see. Not sure why all the whining. 6z GFS looked pretty good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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