CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: I only looked at the EURO 500mb chart and fully expected it to be good. Then i came on here and its all doom and gloom. Those snow maps are horrific. Wtf happened. Weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS looked pretty good to me. All I need to see. Not sure why all the whining. 6z GFS looked pretty good too. Nammy not bad either (usual caveats apply). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Hoth said: Nammy not bad either (usual caveats apply). Too much talk about that POS model. The EPS was closer than the op to the New England close with the srn s/w in question. I'm not sure why people want a phased bomb on a 84-96 hr depiction, unless they live in KROC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS looked pretty good to me. All I need to see. Not sure why all the whining. 6z GFS looked pretty good too. It's going to be real interesting to see how this plays out sensible weather wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Well WPC and GYX also seem quite confident on at least advisory level snows. Mets FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Too much talk about that POS model. The EPS was closer than the op to the New England close with the srn s/w in question. I'm not sure why people want a phased bomb on a 84-96 hr depiction, unless they live in KROC. As far as I'm concerned, this has all been a warm up exercise. The game starts tonight. Looking at NPAC infrared, I believe our little friend is just about coming on shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Too much talk about that POS model. The EPS was closer than the op to the New England close with the srn s/w in question. I'm not sure why people want a phased bomb on a 84-96 hr depiction, unless they live in KROC. You'd rather not see a phased bomb right now? Just worried about how models aren't that good so if they show it now it must be wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, mahk_webstah said: Well WPC and GYX also seem quite confident on at least advisory level snows. Mets FTW. Yeah that's a lock for eastern areas as discussed last night. Cold air mass and big ocean storm with those SSTs...easy fluff to 3-6" along the coastal plain regardless of what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Amazed at how many people are writing this one off.. Wow this could easily be epic or a whiff i would give it another day or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, powderfreak said: You'd rather not see a phased bomb right now? Just worried about how models aren't that good so if they show it now it must be wrong? These setups are notorious for coming west when data is sampled and/or convection from latent heat release. This does not always happen, but not sure why people want to see a model show 2' in their backyard, 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 Happy New Years 's I agree with Scott's assessment this AM. Not sure what the downers have for expectations but I like how the GFS/GEFS/EPS/Euro look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 You know what...on second thought..maybe I do want that too happen so I can see the meltdowns when it whiffs or turns them to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I still would tell PF and the western New England crowd to watch this closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Wednesday night into Thursday night... Model guidance suite continues to advertise explosive cyclogenesis over the ocean south of New Eng with potential for a sub 960 mb low, but consensus is still for an offshore track with UKMET on the western edge of the track envelope. Still a lot of spread among the GEFS and EPS ensemble members as track of storm will hinge on complex interaction of lead shortwave lifting NE from the Gulf coast and northern stream energy diving into the Great Lakes. A more amplified Great Lakes trough would increase probability of a further west track closer to New Eng and a major winter storm. Less amplification favors a more offshore track and lighter snowfall. The lead shortwave will be entering the NW CONUS this morning but second shortwave which is the critical piece in determining the amplification of the Great Lakes trough is still over the Pacific and moving into western Canada this morning. This shortwave will not be well sampled by upper air network until tonight so suspect 00z Tue or 12z Tue model suite will have a better handle on resolving the finer details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 And yes the NAM would be a bomb and yes we post about it and the SREFs and other short-term models way too much in the extended range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: These setups are notorious for coming west when data is sampled and/or convection from latent heat release. This does not always happen, but not sure why people want to see a model show 2' in their backyard, 4 days out. Haha that's such a funny way to look at it. Like the models have to be wrong. If I'm you guys though yeah, I want this to stay off shore and then start to see it come west on some NAM runs before one EURO run goes full tilt blizzard for BOS. Personally I'd rather it be showing 2 feet over all of New England right now, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I cannot see a high confidence forecast either way at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I still would tell PF and the western New England crowd to watch this closely. There are still JUST enough ensemble members to keep it interesting. But it is funny the differences in opinions... just like if we were looking to get crushed right now I'd be sitting here telling you guys to watch out, lol. We want EPS member 23 please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: This shortwave will not be well sampled by upper air network until tonight so suspect 00z Tue or 12z Tue model suite will have a better handle on resolving the finer details. Bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: There are still JUST enough ensemble members to keep it interesting. But it is funny the differences in opinions... just like if we were looking to get crushed right now I'd be sitting here telling you guys to watch out, lol. We want EPS member 23 please. Yeah, feel like that would have a Boxing Day style deform somewhere in the HV up to the Pit. Wind shredded baking soda on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Seems like what these models are all sniffing out is how complicated this storm is. Doesn’t seem to me like we typically see these many bizzare solutions this close to an event. To my memory, Convoluted scenarios don’t often result in simple, direct hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 13 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Haha that's such a funny way to look at it. Like the models have to be wrong. If I'm you guys though yeah, I want this to stay off shore and then start to see it come west on some NAM runs before one EURO run goes full tilt blizzard for BOS. Personally I'd rather it be showing 2 feet over all of New England right now, ha. I'm not implying it's wrong, but why would I take a 4 days solution as verbatim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Powderfreak started the new year by wading through 50 EPS members to find his favorite d4 weenie bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm not implying it's wrong, but why would I take a 4 days solution as verbatim? Even the ensembles will be all fd up if the sampling isn't good. People have short memories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Powderfreak started the new year by wading through 50 EPS members to find his favorite d4 weenie bomb. That's the best one for the "forum"... I gotta go look for my personal favorite . It's -20F outside, not much else to do either haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm not implying it's wrong, but why would I take a 4 days solution as verbatim? It'll certainly be interesting to see where this ends up. I'm thinking we should start putting some wagers on it at some point. Up the ante. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Even the ensembles will be all fd up if the sampling isn't good. People have short memories. The "southern" s/w will come into better balloon sampling today and tonight. The "northern" s/w is still south of AK. These aren't exactly as bad as the sampling issues with nrn AK and arctic s/w's, but any slight differences can have big effects down the road. While not the main issue, the west coast ridge is in a good spot to really allow this to amplify. It's not like it's progressing into the Plains to limit amplification. I guess I am content given the solutions...even if I lived in western and northwestern New England. People need to see the forest through the champagne bubbles last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm not implying it's wrong, but why would I take a 4 days solution as verbatim? The models are prob wrong though. Lol. They almost always are too flat when it comes to these types of complex setups that involve southern stream with tons of convection. Like we're talking MCS type of convection. So yeah. I'm ok with the models being a little too far east right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The models are prob wrong though. Lol. They almost always are too flat when it comes to these types of complex setups that involve southern stream with tons of convection. Like we're talking MCS type of convection. So yeah. I'm ok with the models being a little too far east right now. Exactly. So i'm supposed to be down in the gutter because I'm 50-100 miles from an epic storm, 4 days out? I'll give people credit that they probably can't see the EPS output like the op I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The "southern" s/w will come into better balloon sampling today and tonight. The "northern" s/w is still south of AK. These aren't exactly as bad as the sampling issues with nrn AK and arctic s/w's, but any slight differences can have big effects down the road. While not the main issue, the west coast ridge is in a good spot to really allow this to amplify. It's not like it's progressing into the Plains to limit amplification. I guess I am content given the solutions...even if I lived in western and northwestern New England. People need to see the forest through the champagne bubbles last night. What's your take on the Atlantic side? Any definable trend there with respect to ridging? I suppose any improvement there would help buckle the flow a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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