Jan 4-6 Coastal Bomb

[Baroclinic Zone]

While not purely a southern stream s/w, we know from past events that sw/s that come out of the south are notorious for pumping up heights ahead of them.  I see no reason to not see this occur to some degree and this will likely lead to more interaction with the other s/w's.  I would not go so far as to think we see a track over CT but we could easily have a track over the BM still.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Hoth said:

What's your take on the Atlantic side? Any definable trend there with respect to ridging? I suppose any help there would help buckle the flow a bit.

I suppose the conv area north of Maine should be watched? OTherwise I don't see anything concerning. The ridging in the Atlantic is sort of driven by the s/w in question so if that were to get stronger, it's likely because of the srn s/w helping it amplify somewhat.

[HoarfrostHubb]

How are the Euro probability maps (Ryan posted one yesterday) from the overnight run?

Sometimes those have a pretty good idea.

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Exactly. So i'm supposed to be down in the gutter because I'm 50-100 miles from an epic storm, 4 days out? I'll give people credit that they probably can't see the EPS output like the op I guess.

I love your spot for this and always have.  Look for 12"+.  Like I posted last night, the soundings look great for a huge snow growth zone down on the coastal plain.  Crushing dendrites from mid-level lift and low level onshore flow.  Should be fun there.

The GGEM has scarily been the most consistent model and it keeps showing a huge hit.  Maybe it finally finds the nut.

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I suppose the conv area north of Maine should be watched? OTherwise I don't see anything concerning. The ridging in the Atlantic is sort of driven by the s/w in question so if that were to get stronger, it's likely because of the srn s/w helping it amplify somewhat.

Gotcha, thanks very much.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, powderfreak said:

I love your spot for this and always have.  Look for 12"+.  Like I posted last night, the soundings look great for a huge snow growth zone down on the coastal plain.  Crushing dendrites from mid-level lift and low level onshore flow.  Should be fun there.

A little early for that. There are slot issues and all sorts of stuff that needs to sorted out.   Don't be so quick to write off something larger for you.

[mreaves]

I’m still going with the DIT method. ORH has only posted once in here this morning = all hope is lost. 

[dendrite]

This is why we wait.

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

A little early for that. There are slot issues and all sorts of stuff that needs to sorted out.   Don't be so quick to write off something larger for you.

I haven't written anything off... but I think we all realize the probabilities here.   I guess its hard to convey through quick posts.  Like last night I look at it like fantasy football..  You guys have the higher floor while maybe everyone has the same potential high ceiling depending on where it tracks.  But probability wise, eastern areas would be the most likely to get something out of this regardless.

[powderfreak]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

This is why we wait.

And MoneyPitMike is still waiting, haha.

Wasn't the better short term bust the Feb 2013 though?  The EURO had feet and the GFS had flurries or something like that at 2 days out.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

This is why we wait.

Yup. My top analog for what this smells like. Just need a more pessimistic Scoots to seal it.  

[JC-CT]

18 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The GGEM has scarily been the most consistent model and it keeps showing a huge hit.  Maybe it finally finds the nut.

 Or not lol 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup. My top analog for what this smells like. Just need a more pessimistic Scoots to seal it.  

That's my biggest concern right now. Not enough pessimism. No "ain't happenin James". Nothin.

Maybe he still needs to thaw out from the game yesterday? Maybe still buzzed?

[JC-CT]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

This is why we wait.

This setup actually looks quite a bit similar, no?

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

This setup actually looks quite a bit similar, no?

That looks more Miller B judging by the precip over the D.C. area?  Like something that developed off the Delmarva and went east from there?

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That looks more Miller B judging by the precip over the D.C. area?  Like something that developed off the Delmarva and went east from there?

That was from the 1/24 system.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That looks more Miller B judging by the precip over the D.C. area?  Like something that developed off the Delmarva and went east from there?

Thats Jan 15, before it looked historic.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

This setup actually looks quite a bit similar, no?

There's some similarities. IIRC that was getting its act together on d3-4 further west than this potential system.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

This setup actually looks quite a bit similar, no?

I think so... trajectory wise anyway... obviously anyone who is setting themselves up for that though is looking for disappointment 

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That was from the 1/24 system.

Ahh so this is the storm right after that?  The historic blizzard... while the 24th was the storm that caused everyone to melt down?

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I still would tell PF and the western New England crowd to watch this closely.

PF will clean up on some back end upslope.  GC will enjoy the CAA.

45 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Powderfreak started the new year by wading through 50 EPS members to find his favorite d4 weenie bomb.

Good luck with that.

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That's my biggest concern right now. Not enough pessimism. No "ain't happenin James". Nothin.

Maybe he still needs to thaw out from the game yesterday? Maybe still buzzed?

    We need more posts from him claiming 943 on the BM. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think so... trajectory wise anyway... obviously anyone who is setting themselves up for that though is looking for disappointment 

This reminds me of the great blizzards of January 2005 and January 2015 that devastated Harwich, MA, USA.

[moneypitmike]

Just now, dendrite said:

This reminds me of the great blizzards of January 2005 and January 2015 that devastated Harwich, MA, USA.

LOL.

 

This reminds me of all of the HECS that give GC a few flurries.

[NorEastermass128]

26 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I’m still going with the DIT method. ORH has only posted once in here this morning = all hope is lost. 

But did you actually read what he posted??

[jbenedet]

Nam should be stronger and west based on changes out to hr24.

Both shortwaves look deeper, and better PNA ridge.

[JBinStoughton]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Nam should be stronger and west based on changes out to hr24.

Both shortwaves look deeper, and better PNA ridge.

Same NAM that last looked great before it swung right in a fit of rage and hysteria? 

[mahk_webstah]

Who knows what will happen.  But sometimes we have to step back and just look at this.  I know the Mets do that, but weenies like me get caught up in each ru.

But think about what is on the table.

• 5 days of model runs consistently showing a sub 960 low in the western atlantic
• A ton of cold air, anomalyously cold
• A lot of model data showing a northward track and even a nw turn
• a pressure gradient difference that could exceed 80mb 
• lots of model data indicating an expansive precip field
• 3 stream involvement
• A known tendency of strong storms to tuck west

I mean its probably only a 20% possibility but if this develops near its potential, we could be looking at an historic blizzard for a significant part of New England.  GYX mentioned the B work in its discussion overnight...not predicting it but mentioning the possibility.  We could be 3 days out from one we will remember for a long time.  It might not happen, but we often aren't sitting so close to the possibility of something really tremendous.

[jbenedet]

4 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said:

Same NAM that last looked great before it swung right in a fit of rage and hysteria? 

Not sure what this means, but I’m not putting any stock in the final solution of the nam, especially not at 84 hr.

That said it should be instructive for key features out to at least 48. And this information can then sometimes be used to deduce final outcomes or trends for other more reliable models.

[Eduardo]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Who knows what will happen.  But sometimes we have to step back and just look at this.  I know the Mets do that, but weenies like me get caught up in each ru.

But think about what is on the table.

• 5 days of model runs consistently showing a sub 960 low in the western atlantic
• A ton of cold air, anomalyously cold
• A lot of model data showing a northward track and even a nw turn
• a pressure gradient difference that could exceed 80mb 
• lots of model data indicating an expansive precip field
• 3 stream involvement
• A known tendency of strong storms to tuck west

I mean its probably only a 20% possibility but if this develops near its potential, we could be looking at an historic blizzard for a significant part of New England.  GYX mentioned the B work in its discussion overnight...not predicting it but mentioning the possibility.  We could be 3 days out from one we will remember for a long time.  It might not happen, but we often aren't sitting so close to the possibility of something really tremendous.

All good points. Honestly, I think the prospect of being "so close, yet so far" is what has many on edge here.  There will be some palpable rage on here if we are watching a monster entertain the fishes on satellite.