ineedsnow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Huge hit on the canadian again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: Congrats Hazey. Congrats Wilmington NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Whacko, SLP was just east of the BM, Probably some mixing issues for the SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Ya CMC came further west. Big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I can see this going for some, Thinking whiff and then start worrying about mixing...................lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I can see this going for some, Thinking whiff and then start worrying about mixing...................lol Yup. 0z tonight and 12z tomorrow are go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 UKIE is definitely east of the Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Not too many would complain about that. 951mb a little outside the bench? Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 CMC is a little like the Euro with the jack: SNJ/DE/ then Down East. It's not paltry in between like the EC but then general look is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 CMC big hit for de Maine and NB. My favoured spots for jacks. Hurricane force wind gusts for me. Let's keep that right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: CMC is a little like the Euro with the jack: SNJ/DE/ then Down East. It's not paltry in between like the EC but then general look is there. lol, You would take note of that, I wouldn't worry about qpf this far out, Just get it west first and then it will all play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: lol, You would take note of that, I wouldn't worry about qpf this far out, Just get it west first and then it will all play out. To my eyes we would get smoked with that track. Qpf tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I don't see the UKMET out anywhere yet, how are you seeing it? UQAM still on 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoth said: To my eyes we would get smoked with that track. Qpf tossed. The precip would be pretty far to the west on that, So yes it would be a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: I don't see the UKMET out anywhere yet, how are you seeing it? UQAM still on 00z Its definitely right of last night and a good 75-100 miles east of the CMC at 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: I don't see the UKMET out anywhere yet, how are you seeing it? UQAM still on 00z I was wondering that too. Seems a little early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: lol, You would take note of that, I wouldn't worry about qpf this far out, Just get it west first and then it will all play out. Ray was commenting on that element of the EC run as being wonky, that's why I brought it up. I'm not holding my breath on this one. I wish I could be at Pit2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=72&carte=1021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=72&carte=1021 Huh, seems really far east at 72, no? Almost getting to that time when we start micro-analyzing CONUS water vapor loops to track progress of our southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 This thing has so many moving parts that have to come together correctly that Rube Goldberg would be proud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 One thing to note is this storm is booking it. This won't be a long duration event. Fast and depending where you live, hard hitting. Then bye bye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 If Ukie is east, does that usually mean the EC will be east as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, Hazey said: One thing to note is this storm is booking it. This won't be a long duration event. Fast and depending where you live, hard hitting. Then bye bye. Can still do well with fast movers. Pulled 27" in Jan '11 with maybe 12 hours of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 are there any analogs for this storm yet? It might give at least a little help in where this might go down the road... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The blizzard in Jan 15 was referenced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 At first when reading some of these reaction .. I was ready to assume the CMC is merely over-doing the forcing back west ... I was already formulating a post ... something like, 'I don't see that solution as being more consolidated with a coherent westerly correction overall... ' blah blah. But, upon looking, it actually DOES have a more consolidated, coherent circulation back west. We're inside of D4.5 and the Euro operational is pretty proven well enough in that time of lead time range to nod pretty automatically in that favor. So, if this 12z does a CMC correction, that would be unusual. Otherwise, this honestly to me is beginning to remind me of that 2014 storm that happened ... I think it was in late March that year? It was modeled for several days to be a big bomb and pass oh so tantalizingly close to New England. It really would have taken almost nothing of a perturbation to get the atmosphere to bring the goods but it just did not ever do so, ... right up to and through verification and it stayed primarily within shouting distance of the shore ...Save the Cape and Islands if memory serves. 'Went on up into NS history books having completed the deliberate and fantastically well- executed design to bend over the storm enthusiasts that frequent this social-media outlet too... haha. Kidding of course... But sometimes, you miss the best ones That one was a bitter pill to swallow, too ... cause it wrapped up the last of that season's big cold and we lurched pretty smartly into spring within 10 days of wound licking. We'll see... But at this point, I'm already looking upstream and the next pattern permutation and so forth, and await being pleasantly surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, MarkO said: If Ukie is east, does that usually mean the EC will be east as well? It’s a fairly popular belief, idk if there’s any significant correlation there though. Could just be that if there are meaningful changes that the UK picked up on then the euro would also be likely to catch/show them as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 That's funny tip, I was just thinking of the march 2014 ocean storm as analogous to this one. A lot of time lost tracking that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: Huge hit on the canadian again The GGEM has remained the most consistent model through this whole thing the past 2-3 days. It just keeps showing a big hit. Not sure if that's good or bad though to see it that consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The late March '14 was dubbed 'The Behemoth' and it scraped extreme EMA with a couple inches while ACK got about 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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