40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I'm going to lean on the globals still for a track. I have a feeling that this storm will track generally along the path of the 500mb low since it becomes vertically stack by the time its off of HAT. My gut says 50-75mi SE of the BM. Sound reasoning. Thoughts on totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I'm going to lean on the globals still for a track. I have a feeling that this storm will track generally along the path of the 500mb low since it becomes vertically stack by the time its off of HAT. My gut says 50-75mi SE of the BM. I agree but the outflow at 850 is pretty good so deform band could be well nw of where globals place the qpf blobs. Still not buying the nam, my final call shows it, but there is uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Don’t know how JB has done in recent years , but this seems realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think I'll be there with you...but gotta be happy when worst case is 8-12". Good point, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The RPM is better once the storm gets going. It's how it initializes. When it is stable...IE it does not waffe...it tends to add value. I would use it as an important tool from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Well when your modeled in the Jackpot zone for the last 2 days, and a model suddenly takes that Jackpot and shifts it west of you, people get upset and say it's tossed...everyone is guilty of that to some extent it seems. Personally, I think if this gets as strong as modeling shows...there should be a lil more dispersion to the west more...like some models have been hinting at. Think Eastern areas are in no matter what(to what degree is still a up in the air..a foot, 16,18 inches??) unless this thing does go serious bonkers and hugs and mixes them...which is a viable option that should not be overlooked either in my humble opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 This storms affects are like a partial eclipse... you can tell there's parts still out there we aren't getting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 27 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said: At least the models agree that 1P1 will get screwed no matter what. YES! That's me. Consistently the models show major downslope off the Whites. I am in a snow hole with all the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, tunafish said: Good point, thank you. Things may end up east a bit, which would benefit us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Sound reasoning. Thoughts on totals? I actually liked the look and distribution of the 06z hi-res RGEM. Picks up on the fronto band as well as the deformation band. The red stripe is 40mm. Orange is 30-40mm so an so forth. I'd cut back on the western and northern edges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I actually liked the look and distribution of the 06z hi-res RGEM. Picks up on the fronto band as well as the deformation band. The red stripe is 40mm. Orange is 30-40mm so an so forth. I'd cut back on the western and northern edges. I'd gladly take that here..that works just fine for Central CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree its less likely...but I don't trust this system..the dynamics and power on display here is difficult for any model to harness...spoken from someone who wants nothing to do with a Berkshire bonanza. I agree, though..if modeling is correct, that outcome is pretty unlinlkely. Never say never, but I'm pretty much tossing them until I see a reason to give them more than an extreme goalpost scenario type weighting. This is like those nam runs before the Jan '15 blizzard that were jackpotting NNJ over to MPM. Meanwhile, the RGEM was pretty consistently saying there would be a pretty sharp cutoff near ORH. Our mid-level center is tracking outside of ACK...even on the 06z NAM it did. It is pretty hard to get those types of solutions with the synoptics the way they are...and especially true when we take into account that we are in a progressive pattern. If there was more blocking downstream it would be easier to turn this left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 gfs looking closer to the coast thru 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Should be a little better 12z GFS run from the 6z one, Looks a tic or two west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Can still see GFS at hr 18 struggling with the multiple SLP's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Full steam burial on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 yea, its west some thru 36. mid levels much better. ema crushed, obviosuly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Gfs is def snowier..esp west and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Looked a bit W-NW, but was definitely stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Yeah, it didn't really go west as much as it has better looking qpf and a bit more symmetrical circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 GFS still catching up, This is probably going to end up with a track like the 12z NAM had or somewhere close to that in the end i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Im still trying to figure out how we start off as several hours of rain. Is 950mb torched? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: yea, its west some thru 36. mid levels much better. ema crushed, obviosuly. It's West?......toss it! lol j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The GFS has a real nice H7-H5 band into CT and central MA to srn NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Tough to argue with that attm. I did write in the blog that I thought someone was going to end up with 18-20". I just couldn't figure out if its the rte 24 area of northern Worcester county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeCTWX Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 A definite improvement for CT with this run, 6+ for BDR on east. Hopefully we can get one more trend west to make all of CT happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The track is pretty much locking in imo, its the subtle dofferences with convection and dual lows that we are still in the dark with. I guess that affects banding and how far west the inflow gets but the surface low wont hug over ELI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: Im still trying to figure out how we start off as several hours of rain. Is 950mb torched? 18z Thursday has 925mb at ~2C from a Hull to Newport line. That's the warmest it gets and I thinks it's overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Who's going to the Bay of Fundy? 100' waves anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 18z Thursday has 925mb at ~2C from a Hull to Newport line. That's the warmest it gets and I thinks it's overdone. It is. GFS can not handle low levels well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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