Hoth Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Confidence is beginning to sore for west of the river. I could see some siggy deform out your way for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, PowderBeard said: Yesterday it was sore. Today it soars. english second language ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 There is going to be big cut off points with this storm. I could see 3-6" or 4-8" in western Mass and 12-16" in the Providence -Boston corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The possible difficulties among the global models and big differences with the mesoscale models may well be the result of a complex phasing situation with which the guidance has noted difficulty in the medium range. From Kocin, Uccellini et al. on the December 2010 Boxing Day blizzard: The entire suite of European, Canadian and U.S. models didn’t converge on the correct forecast scenario until 36 to 48 hours prior to the onset of the heaviest snow, generally late on the 24th through early on the 25th. Furthermore, the significant model differences on 24 December 2010 contributed to forecaster uncertainty... It wasn’t until the 1200 UTC 25 December model cycles that all the models converged on a solution that put New York City squarely in the area of heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions on 26 December... ...we do note that this case was marked by the complex phasing of different short-wave upper-level troughs upstream of the cyclogenetic event. These phasing characteristics are a marker for La Nina patterns which existed for the Winter 2010/2011, which are known to be particularly difficult to forecast with certainty in the medium range. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/winter_storm_summaries/event_reviews/2010/December25_27_2010_Blizzard.pdf nice find! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: english second language ftl. Confidence has never been higher for impacts out west. The chances have only increased since yesterday. Confidence is low today, but it was zero yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Looking over stuff, this appears to act out in 2 ways, first a WAA thump for all then banding sets up with some serious subsidence zones, storms of this magnitude feature haves and have nots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, Hoth said: I could see some siggy deform out your way for sure. We can go 4-8” for us as a prelim call and possibly higher if euro keeps the nw ticks coming and mesos nail down banding tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Looking over stuff, this appears to act out in 2 ways, first a WAA thump for all then banding sets up with some serious subsidence zones, storms of this magnitude feature haves and have nots. Bingo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Quote https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/948231033014669312 @NWSBoston [THURSDAY] Confidence increasing for a significant winter storm with snow, strong winds and coastal flooding. Greatest uncertainty remains on how far west the heavy snow gets into interior #SNE along with positioning of rain/snow line across southeast New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Looking over stuff, this appears to act out in 2 ways, first a WAA thump for all then banding sets up with some serious subsidence zones, storms of this magnitude feature haves and have nots. Fully agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Ryan went 4-8" back to Hartford and Springfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: nice find! Thanks. Good luck with the storm. Hopefully, the greater Boston area has a memorable blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Looking over stuff, this appears to act out in 2 ways, first a WAA thump for all then banding sets up with some serious subsidence zones, storms of this magnitude feature haves and have nots. Reassuring for BOS peeps to see CF nearby. Just think about boxing day. Shouldn't be a disaster like that was for many, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Looking over stuff, this appears to act out in 2 ways, first a WAA thump for all then banding sets up with some serious subsidence zones, storms of this magnitude feature haves and have nots. That lift map that was posted earlier brought back memories of March '13 in RI. Just west of that intense fronto it looked iffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: Ryan went 4-8" back to Hartford and Springfield They may be conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Sick fronto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Frank Nocera Here is the #NAM Bufkit sounding for #Chatham #MA 7 pm Thu - #hurricane wind gusts possible. Thus power outages possible. Dangerous situation given bitterly cold air arrives on the back side Thu ngt. #Winter #CapeCod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Sick fronto I love that page. Some of the most insane CSI/banding I've seen in awhile. Lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Thats riduculous. I would not be shocked to see a feb 13 type of band somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Watches for New London and southern Middlesex in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Storm watches going up!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Gonna be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Very heavy snow indicated on that fronto map. Worcester to Boston North and South shore decimated by blizzard conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Uncle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 1143 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018 CTZ008-011-012-NYZ078>081-030045- /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.180104T0500Z-180105T0500Z/ Northern New London-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London- Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk- Southeastern Suffolk- 1143 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Plan on difficult travel conditions, including the morning and evening commute on Thursday. Total snow accumulations of 6 or more inches are possible. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Connecticut and Suffolk County on Long Island. * WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Thursday evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind gusts between 30 to 40 mph are possible. This may result in blowing and drifting of snow. Significant reductions in visibility are possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Up they go.... hit the stores now and get your snow gear ready boys and girls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Frank Nocera new 12z UKMET is stronger and closer to the coast. Fear is #snow will grab all the headlines while damaging wind threat and power outages more of an impact with bitterly cold air arriving Thu ngt. Lots of folks could be without power on the backside Thu ngt across #CapeCod #MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Looks like a big jump NW on the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Very high tides coming up Wed/Thur/Friday. I had thought that the highest tides coincided with the full moon but I guess not exactly. Another thing to watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 10 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Reassuring for BOS peeps to see CF nearby. Just think about boxing day. Shouldn't be a disaster like that was for many, though. My early thoughts are that my area will be in between bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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