Prestige Worldwide Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Using 15:1 ratios, MD/DE beaches get 6-10" lol Come on down and let's enjoy a cold one at dogfish!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: 2nd low right along the coast ^^^^^ this. Second westward low is playin tugboat and trying to bring it closer to land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I'm assuming this tick west is because of the stronger vort and more negative tilt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, Prestige Worldwide said: Come on down and let's enjoy a cold one at dogfish!! I am leaning that way lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 It actually doesn’t look that different from the 12z ukie from yesterday. I wonder why the ukie showed so much more precip. Yeah, not sure the EURO actually “pops” the low. But it tries. UKIE also does it closer to the coast and IIRC it gets it down to just below 1000mb. Interesting day. One of the various things cranky mentioned on his Twitter was seeing where the low decides to consolidate in the Bahamas/off Florida. If it consolidates even just a little more westward then modeled, & we get a second low, then things get a little more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Ultimate DC tease Mitch, can that low close to the coast have any chance of becoming the primary, if there is one? And maybe it's not a tease but a late starting trend due to the 2nd lp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Copious amounts of modeled convection is having a significant effect on the development location and initial deepening of the low. The environment certainly favors a lot of strong convective activity as the low develops east of Florida, but expect more run-to-run variability and ensemble spread than normal. Best to pay attention to the upper levels for now -- at least until we get closer. The 12Z runs of both the GFS and EC were definitely better in that regard. While the EC was a tad later with the phase, the southern s/w goes negative earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Definitely trying for that double barrel look. Curious to see EPS member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: That's pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 if...BIG if, but if you can get the westward part of the "dualish" kinda low structure here to take over, then miracles really can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, Wonderdog said: Mitch, can that low close to the coast have any chance of becoming the primary, if there is one? And maybe it's not a tease but a late starting trend due to the 2nd lp. I don't claim to be competent enough to answer that, but my guess is no. But we don't need it to to get some accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 if...BIG if, but if you can get the westward part of the "dualish" kinda low structure here to take over, then miracles really can happen. Primary looks too established there. This almost feels like a tropical system where we are looking to see where the low consolidates. Paging [mention=9730]WxWatcher007[/mention], lol. I was trying to do some reading on the whole double-barreled low scenario to see exactly what causes that to happen but couldn’t find any. If anyone has something fun to read so I can learn more I’d love to have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Interestingly enough, the Euro seems to underdo precip at these leads esp. on the NW side (someone posted that yesterday IIRC)...won’t take much to get 95 in on a few inches even if its not doing that here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Primary looks too established there. This almost feels like a tropical system where we are looking to see where the low consolidates. Paging@WxWatcher007, lol. I was trying to do some reading on the whole double-barreled low scenario to see exactly what causes that to happen but couldn’t find any. If anyone has something fun to read so I can learn more I’d love to have it. agreed. As already suggested, look at upper air patterns to see whats driving and where it can go. IMO it argues against the western jog we need. But as also stated, the early capture and any SW jog with that happening, will further help to give this a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 The one time we need a bit of a SE Ridge and it's nowhere to be found. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 this does seem to have beach storm written all over it. you can even look at the WV imagery to get an idea of just how broad and east the flow is (of course, that's now and not thursday, but you get my point). also, how often do we get coastal storms with such a frigid airmass? seems like you can shift the normal path east a bit given the whole setup. with that said, this really could be a pretty legit and unusual storm for the beaches imo, if things continue to trend in that direction. it does feel like we're on the outside looking in for now, but still an intriguing storm to track and it would still be nice to get fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Thiiink I can post this? A couple of the GEFS members have an attempt at the double-low, with a couple looking fairly promising but still managing to get no precip our way. One does have the closer low to the coast take over. Double low idea is much more interesting for us in the 12z GEFS then the 6z GEFS IMO when flipping through the panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: The one time we need a bit of a SE Ridge and it's nowhere to be found. We got too much of a good thing when asking for no SE Ridge during Christmas lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Anyone remember the good euro run Thursday? It's still nowhere close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Amped said: Anyone remember the good euro run Thursday? It's still nowhere close to that. need this thing to go bombogenesis asap...though a sandy track in this setup would be fun as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 47 minutes ago, Scraff said: People that waved the white flag—you are not allowed back now. Don't worry... We don't want back in on this non threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 30 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Primary looks too established there. This almost feels like a tropical system where we are looking to see where the low consolidates. Paging [mention=9730]WxWatcher007[/mention], lol. I was trying to do some reading on the whole double-barreled low scenario to see exactly what causes that to happen but couldn’t find any. If anyone has something fun to read so I can learn more I’d love to have it. The only double barrel systems that I know that impact us are when the primary system runs up the Appalachians and a secondary forms along the coast. We had a lot of over running events in the 80's that started as snow and then switched to freezing drizzle as the secondary took over off the coast. Gordon Barnes and Bill Kamal loved referring to those systems as double barrel systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 not sure how many people stayed for the light even the other night, but you could see the potential for snow in these temps. flakes were the size of crumbs, but they all counted and they all made it to the ground, and stuck. powdery snowstorms are probably my favorite kind. all we need is like 0.20 qpf to make it a legit event with these temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 12 minutes ago, 87storms said: not sure how many people stayed for the light even the other night, but you could see the potential for snow in these temps. flakes were the size of crumbs, but they all counted and they all made it to the ground, and stuck. powdery snowstorms are probably my favorite kind. all we need is like 0.20 qpf to make it a legit event with these temps. DCA didn't even hit 10:1 ratios the other night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Negnao said: DCA didn't even hit 10:1 ratios the other night. While I agree the ratios wouldn't necessarily be awesome I do think 0.20 qpf would be a relatively high impact event given the cold air and road temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Better.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 EPS seems West. 0z vs 12z ETA: Ninja'd by CAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Eps mean precip ticked west. Getting exciting for the beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 12Z ensembles look considerably better. Not a hit per se, but a definite improvement over 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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