New Years 2018 Mid-Long Range Disco

[WxUSAF]

Yay cold!

[WxUSAF]

To answer Ralph’s comment in the last thread, the EPO is good for delivering cold, but we need something else to get the storm track nearby. In other recent EPO dominated periods, the WAR is that  something. 

[aldie 22]

How about that stable euro consistency?

[showmethesnow]

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@Ralph Wiggum Quote from previous thread.

Epo is great for getting the cold air into the lower 48 but is indirectly to blame for the cold, dry, suppressed stj pattern. Not sure if other big epo ridge winters had the same theme (not at my PC to research) but i am inclined to believe the years that featured a persistent epo ridge and had snowier results also had Atl ridging working in tandem or at least transient blocking. With the epo flexing and no Atl help Im not sure a home run is in the cards any time soon. Im sure we've scored with transient epo ridges popping in the past but with a sustained look and no Atl help Im unsure of our odds.

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Couple of weeks ago I mentioned that weak troughing in the Southwest, mostly cutoff from the NS flow, would be needed for our snow chances in the upcoming pattern. Needed to see that feature to pump up the SE ridge and heights underneath us and subsequently the southern jet as well. The models back then were hitting on that and had me somewhat excited. But we have since seen that that is for the most part a phantom as the models continually show it only to lose it in the shorter ranges. IF...... we were ever to see that verify and have some sustainability to boot within the current pattern IMO our chances for snow increase greatly.

[Ralph Wiggum]

To answer Ralph’s comment in the last thread, the EPO is good for delivering cold, but we need something else to get the storm track nearby. In other recent EPO dominated periods, the WAR is that  something. 

Thank you for answering and that's pretty much what I thought. Without some Atl help, even a well-timed transient feature at the very least, we are at the mercy of the epo and overwhelming cold/dry pattern. At some point one would think the epo either relaxes or we get some sort of Atl help but who knows when that happens. The progressiveness up top is throwing fits into the LR stuff so it's a challenge to get a grasp on what the pattern will look like down the road.

[Ralph Wiggum]

_____________________________________________________________________________ [mention=4298]Ralph Wiggum[/mention] Quote from previous thread.

Epo is great for getting the cold air into the lower 48 but is indirectly to blame for the cold, dry, suppressed stj pattern. Not sure if other big epo ridge winters had the same theme (not at my PC to research) but i am inclined to believe the years that featured a persistent epo ridge and had snowier results also had Atl ridging working in tandem or at least transient blocking. With the epo flexing and no Atl help Im not sure a home run is in the cards any time soon. Im sure we've scored with transient epo ridges popping in the past but with a sustained look and no Atl help Im unsure of our odds.

_______________________________________________________________________________

 

Couple of weeks ago I mentioned that weak troughing in the Southwest, mostly cutoff from the NS flow, would be needed for our snow chances in the upcoming pattern. Needed to see that feature to pump up the SE ridge and heights underneath us and subsequently the southern jet as well. The models back then were hitting on that and had me somewhat excited. But we have since seen that that is for the most part a phantom as the models continually show it only to lose it in the shorter ranges. IF...... we were ever to see that verify and have some sustainability to boot within the current pattern IMO our chances for snow increase greatly.

 

This was part of my winter outlook actually in that to score decent events we would probably need to rely on a gradient pattern out of a SW trof and maybe score some thumps via swfe overrunning. Not seeing that look thus far but who knows. It's one of the ways we can manage to get N->AN snowfall without a single wrapped up coastal type storm. Thankfully it isnt January yet, so there's that :-) 

 

 

[CAPE]

29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

43 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

To answer Ralph’s comment in the last thread, the EPO is good for delivering cold, but we need something else to get the storm track nearby. In other recent EPO dominated periods, the WAR is that  something. 

Thank you for answering and that's pretty much what I thought. Without some Atl help, even a well-timed transient feature at the very least, we are at the mercy of the epo and overwhelming cold/dry pattern. At some point one would think the epo either relaxes or we get some sort of Atl help but who knows when that happens. The progressiveness up top is throwing fits into the LR stuff so it's a challenge to get a grasp on what the pattern will look like down the road.

The -EPO appears to be a mainstay, and I am totally ok with that given the alternatives in a Nina. We need a cold air delivery mechanism. Yeah the way to score something more than a weak sauce clipper is with some help either in the NA or WA at times. Tendency for more ridging is showing up in the LR on the Atlantic side, so we wait and see..and in the meantime lets hope the convoluted setup for next week quickly dies(as it appears to be doing) and morphs into something a bit more simple- like a decent vort diving down further west and sliding underneath for a widespread light to moderate event. Or we wait for the next one..

[CAPE]

56 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yay cold!

I like it though. Frozen ground, rivers and ponds quickly freezing over. A little snow would be nice. Likely we will end up with something decent after a week or more of solidly below freezing temps, and just before a warm up. This is how we roll.

[mitchnick]

We need to get this winter show off with a nice big push from the SW that starts as snow and then mixes or changes.  Personally,  maybe because I'm older, the cold without snow is uninspiring and expensive, if not a kick in the teeth to my winter enjoyment. 

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

We need to get this winter show off with a nice big push from the SW that starts as snow and then mixes or changes.  Personally,  maybe because I'm older, the cold without snow is uninspiring and expensive, if not a kick in the teeth to my winter enjoyment. 

I understand that. If this were to drag on I would get sick of it too. A week I can deal with. I burn wood so I can keep the heat pump from running all the time. I like winter hiking too so its pretty cool when everything is frozen solid, and the cold air is refreshing. Wind sucks though lol.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

To answer Ralph’s comment in the last thread, the EPO is good for delivering cold, but we need something else to get the storm track nearby. In other recent EPO dominated periods, the WAR is that  something. 

Thank you for answering and that's pretty much what I thought. Without some Atl help, even a well-timed transient feature at the very least, we are at the mercy of the epo and overwhelming cold/dry pattern. At some point one would think the epo either relaxes or we get some sort of Atl help but who knows when that happens. The progressiveness up top is throwing fits into the LR stuff so it's a challenge to get a grasp on what the pattern will look like down the road.

Your playing with fire though. If the epo relaxes and everything else right now stays the same we would torch.

[CAPE]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Your playing with fire though. If the epo relaxes and everything else right now stays the same we would torch.

Exactly.

[Bob Chill]

0z eps is probably the most depressing run of met winter. Has pretty much lost and and all chances for snow beyond tomorrow. Safe to say that the 0z eps is rock bottom and can't get worse. It was a close the shades run. Not temp wise. Just snow/precip wise. It's probably wrong but the entire east is having a hard time getting things to sync up for snow and both the eps/gefs aren't giving me much to talk about. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

0z eps is probably the most depressing run of met winter. Has pretty much lost and and all chances for snow beyond tomorrow. Safe to say that the 0z eps is rock bottom and can't get worse. It was a close the shades run. Not temp wise. Just snow/precip wise. It's probably wrong but the entire east is having a hard time getting things to sync up for snow and both the eps/gefs aren't giving me much to talk about. 

We need a warm up, the proverbial reshuffling......and fast!

 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

0z eps is probably the most depressing run of met winter. Has pretty much lost and and all chances for snow beyond tomorrow. Safe to say that the 0z eps is rock bottom and can't get worse. It was a close the shades run. Not temp wise. Just snow/precip wise. It's probably wrong but the entire east is having a hard time getting things to sync up for snow and both the eps/gefs aren't giving me much to talk about. 

It's ugly. Really really ugly. Bone dry through day 10. Not even any outliers every single member is dry. Then day 10-15 lost the signal for a wave running the boundary under us and instead has almost unanimous support for a cutter. Something that runs from Texas to Ohio. For as cold of a run as it was it was as amazingly bad for snow chances as possible. 

[dsnowman]

The 6z GFS was actually a better run (low not as much OTS) than last two runs and UKIE is still on board with next Wed/Thurs threat as well, so some models are still holding on. The 12z Euro will be key today.

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

We need a warm up, the proverbial reshuffling......and fast!

 

That's the hard to look at part. There's literally no precip for 10 days and meager d10-15 and the run implies that when decent precip comes it's timed perfectly with bad temps. No warm temps. Just bad ones. 

Im not hanging my had on jack way out there in time but I cant even find anything worthy of discussion other than saying we need to take a break and regroup in 10 days. 

Eta: I'm not just talking here. I mean the entire coast outside of the fake belts needs a 10 day break. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

We need a warm up, the proverbial reshuffling......and fast!

 

I'm frustrated too. I really didn't think all the systems crashing the west would fail. They did. But I'd rather a slight adjustment. Get a bit of se ridge or WAR. Maybe a slight bit of trough in the SW. But the "we need a warm up" thing scares me. There are some dominant players showing themselves. We're in a northern stream dominant Nina. The nao wants to be positive. The only way we warm up in any appreciable sense is if the epo breaks down. But if that happens ugh, I'm thinking Luke saying "this isn't going to go the way you think". If the epo abandons us we could go into a LONG torch pattern. This general type of winter is loaded with them. Examples of lost months or worse waiting for the next pattern. If we start something like that January 10....do the math winter might be over. And it's not like we don't have several putrid Nina snowfall years saying that is a possible outcome. Keep in mind when I was doing some data digging for this winter, the really awful snow analogs weren't wall to wall warm. Perhaps none features as cold a period as this but they had cold. But it was wasted cold and then long torch periods. Maybe I'm spooked by those analogs but I know for my area 3 of the 5 worst snowfall winters were in the analogs I found for this year. But none of them were cold winters overall. So I guess I would rather keep the cold and take my chances something eventually comes our way then roll the dice that a Nina with a positive nao is kind to us without the epo. Even a 1977 outcome would be ok to me. They only had about 50% of avg snowfall that year here but there was snowcover a month and all the little events at one point piled up to a 10" snowpack. I can take that. But if we're frigid cold to mid Jan then torch the rest of winter this would top 2002 imo for worst winter ever. 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That's the hard to look at part. There's literally no precip for 10 days and meager d10-15 and the run implies that when decent precip comes it's timed perfectly with bad temps. No warm temps. Just bad ones. 

Im not hanging my had on jack way out there in time but I cant even find anything worthy of discussion other than saying we need to take a break and regroup in 10 days. 

Eta: I'm not just talking here. I mean the entire coast outside of the fake belts needs a 10 day break. 

Or until the next fantasy storm appears out of nowhere on an op run lol. Seriously though, and as you well know, the models are going to struggle in the LR with this pattern. A modest threat or 2 will probably pop up at shorter leads, and nothing is worth considering too seriously until it persists and is inside of 3-4 days. My bar for the next week is a 1-3 or 2-4 type deal. Beyond that if the pattern relaxes we may see some bigger threats, but if we do score, the probability of a mixy event or even a total rainer will be higher. Is what it is though.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Your playing with fire though. If the epo relaxes and everything else right now stays the same we would torch.

Good point. We need Atl help, period.

[Ralph Wiggum]

It's ugly. Really really ugly. Bone dry through day 10. Not even any outliers every single member is dry. Then day 10-15 lost the signal for a wave running the boundary under us and instead has almost unanimous support for a cutter. Something that runs from Texas to Ohio. For as cold of a run as it was it was as amazingly bad for snow chances as possible. 

That cutter is probably our best chance. I say that tongue in cheek yet somewhat seriously as well. The perfect track systems in the LR are are getting suppressed or squashed S and E. This might be a year where a LR cutter trends more suppressed and into a favorable spot as the pattern relaxes and the boundary shift North some.

[Wonderdog]

13 minutes ago, dsnowman said:

The 6z GFS was actually a better run (low not as much OTS) than last two runs and UKIE is still on board with next Wed/Thurs threat as well, so some models are still holding on. The 12z Euro will be key today.

Agree. Even though it's a long shot, still plenty of time even for major adjustments. Plus another fish storm develops a few days later that will nneed to back up to the coast.

[frd]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Your playing with fire though. If the epo relaxes and everything else right now stays the same we would torch.

Good point. We need Atl help, period.

We need  a consistent - NAO or at least some significant fluxes. We can not break into negative though .  Hopefully we enter as decadal - NAO pattern soon.  

And in most Ninas we do not do well. This winter is a real frustration and the lack of precip is a growing concern. Whether it continues not sure, but come the Spring if  it is still dry feedback will promote rapid warming.  I look forward to the next Nino regardless of type or intensity. Weenies normally want snow not this crazy cold.  

[aldie 22]

34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

0z eps is probably the most depressing run of met winter. Has pretty much lost and and all chances for snow beyond tomorrow. Safe to say that the 0z eps is rock bottom and can't get worse. It was a close the shades run. Not temp wise. Just snow/precip wise. It's probably wrong but the entire east is having a hard time getting things to sync up for snow and both the eps/gefs aren't giving me much to talk about. 

Eps seem to be floundering...seriously what does it mean when even the ensembles jump run to run? Is this normal?

[SnowGolfBro]

Maybe the EPS is using reverse psychology. 

[psuhoffman]

35 minutes ago, dsnowman said:

The 6z GFS was actually a better run (low not as much OTS) than last two runs and UKIE is still on board with next Wed/Thurs threat as well, so some models are still holding on. The 12z Euro will be key today.

I can't agree. I thought the 6z gefs was back to being rock bottom after a half decent 0z run. I saw absolutely nothing positive on it. Bone dry through day 10. Then 0z gefs had a decent number of hits with a wave day 10-13. 6z lost that. It's mostly dry day 10-15 also and the few wet members are rainy cutters. The snow mean is misleading as the first 1" is mostly from tomorrow. Then the last 2" is a false signal from a couple big ice solutions off hopeless tracks for snow day 10-15.  As for the coastal it may be slightly better but that thing is gone. Your talking maybe a 2% chance vs a 1% on the 0z. That thing is a lost cause. The only thing I was hopeful about on the guidance was the look of a gradient type setup with waves under us in the long range and that look evaporated.  It's a rock bottom run.  The only good thing is that it might be wrong and we could get a better run in 6 hours. 

[Bob Chill]

19 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Eps seem to be floundering...seriously what does it mean when even the ensembles jump run to run? Is this normal?

This year is on the volatile side for sure. Progressive flow is the biggest issue. Shortwaves can cover 1k miles every 24 hours. Lots of room for extrapolated errors in that environment. 

Unfortunately the eps is not alone with limited precip chances over the next 10 days. Everything seems to finally agree on that. Can never rule out a fluke. It's not a good sign that all 50 euro ens members show barely a trace after this weekend over the next 10 days. 3 out of 50 show a tenth. Lol. I don't think I've seen any run this dry before. 

 

 

[stormtracker]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Yay cold!

If this thread fails to deliver, clean out your desk and stop by HR to drop your mod badge off.  

[Bob Chill]

I guess there's a bright side to this mess...usually the most painful winter periods where we get no snow usually include areas within a 3 hour drive getting something decent. That's not the case right now. Nobody for 1,500 miles of coastline has anything exciting to track so there's that at least 

[Scraff]

2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

How about that stable euro consistency?

Please let us not forget the Roger Smith model. It’s super consistent!