New Years 2018 Mid-Long Range Disco

[eurojosh]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Looks like another d10 fantasy on tap with the euro. Return flow overrunning trying to attack a big cold high.... Similar to the CMC but good god d7+ is getting older than my memories of the good ole days when the NAO was negative. 

Atlantic looks interesting at that timeframe - very different look from Greenland down to Florida.

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Looks like another d10 fantasy on tap with the euro. Return flow overrunning trying to attack a big cold high.... Similar to the CMC but good god d7+ is getting older than my memories of the good ole days when the NAO was negative. 

Sounds like the bowling ball type system it advertised Tuesday (I believe) on the 12z run that quickly morphed into the failed coastal bomb tease.

[Bob Chill]

Because it's a holiday weekend and I'm in a good mood and trying to find optimism of any sort...lol...there are 2 things to stay interested in on the euro. The shortwave d7 actually looks half decent in the upper levels. Give me that kind of vort pass and we'll probably get something out of it even though surface panels suck. 

The d10 think is pretty damn interesting and I'm almost 100% the 12z EPS will look better today...mostly because it can't get worse but the d10 deal is one of the classic ways we can get snow and not some jacked up convoluted mess that seems to rule lately. 

 

[frd]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Because it's a holiday weekend and I'm in a good mood and trying to find optimism of any sort...lol...there are 2 things to stay interested in on the euro. The shortwave d7 actually looks half decent in the upper levels. Give me that kind of vort pass and we'll probably get something out of it even though surface panels suck. 

The d10 think is pretty damn interesting and I'm almost 100% the 12z EPS will look better today...mostly because it can't get worse but the d10 deal is one of the classic ways we can get snow and not some jacked up convoluted mess that seems to rule lately. 

 

After losing hope , it would be ironic , but good, if we nickle and dime to snow climo in Jan. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Because it's a holiday weekend and I'm in a good mood and trying to find optimism of any sort...lol...there are 2 things to stay interested in on the euro. The shortwave d7 actually looks half decent in the upper levels. Give me that kind of vort pass and we'll probably get something out of it even though surface panels suck. 

The d10 think is pretty damn interesting and I'm almost 100% the 12z EPS will look better today...mostly because it can't get worse but the d10 deal is one of the classic ways we can get snow and not some jacked up convoluted mess that seems to rule lately. 

 

Did you sign up for the pay site of Maue's? I did yesterday but found it so impossible to navigate on my phone I cancelled today even though 1st month was free. Lol

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, frd said:

After losing hope , it would be ironic , but good, if we nickle and dime to snow climo in Jan. 

Not hard to do when the mean is only 50 cents 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Did you sign up for the pay site of Maue's? I did yesterday but found it so impossible to navigate on my phone I cancelled today even though 1st month was free. Lol

No, I just re-subscribed to wxbell. I know the nav like the back of my hand and saving 30 bucks over the next 2 months to relearn a new site didn't seem worth it. I really like weatherbell's panels. 

I tried uploaded a couple snips to imagur but the site is having problems. You would really like the d10 panel. It's a classic honestly. Excellent confluence to our north and a solid upper level low in the SW. The h5 vort panel implies that we would get all snow or limited mix at the worst. The HP to the north means business. I doubt anything would cut and if it did it wouldn't make it too far north. 

The thing that made me scratch my head with the 0z eps when I looked at it this morning is there were a lot of members with similar solutions but d10-15 looked like utter crap. If we go by the seasonal trend that confluence/suppression has been winning, I would think that the odds favor (slightly) keeping storms south of us instead of an easy cut. Just a gut feeling based on how this year has played out. Not much support for it. The 12z gefs was mostly wet and rainy d10+. I'm just glad that a couple models are showing legit precip again. Dry as a bone is already getting old and we have at least a week more of it on tap. Except for moisture starved weak northern stream stuff anyways. 

[Wonderdog]

23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Weak disturbance (very weak) embedded in the flow comes through. Dusting to maybe 1" favoring southern and eastern zones. Such subtle feature though and considering lead time it's really nothing to even think about. It does get going a little bit once off the coast so the atlantic might book a couple inches. 

GFS has a system at same time period well ofshore that exits to the right.

[psuhoffman]

Ggem and euro remarkably similar for day 10. The high is in a better spot on the euro than the ggem and the trough is digging in a slightly better way. Might still mix but would probably be more frozen and maybe end well. Of course worrying about any of that is crazy but I'm bored. 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

No, I just re-subscribed to wxbell. I know the nav like the back of my hand and saving 30 bucks over the next 2 months to relearn a new site didn't seem worth it. I really like weatherbell's panels. 

I tried uploaded a couple snips to imagur but the site is having problems. You would really like the d10 panel. It's a classic honestly. Excellent confluence to our north and a solid upper level low in the SW. The h5 vort panel implies that we would get all snow or limited mix at the worst. The HP to the north means business. I doubt anything would cut and if it did it wouldn't make it too far north. 

The thing that made me scratch my head with the 0z eps when I looked at it this morning is there were a lot of members with similar solutions but d10-15 looked like utter crap. If we go by the seasonal trend that confluence/suppression has been winning, I would think that the odds favor (slightly) keeping storms south of us instead of an easy cut. Just a gut feeling based on how this year has played out. Not much support for it. The 12z gefs was mostly wet and rainy d10+. I'm just glad that a couple models are showing legit precip again. Dry as a bone is already getting old and we have at least a week more of it on tap. Except for moisture starved weak northern stream stuff anyways. 

I do like it. Weather.us site is still available. 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa/precipitation-6h-in/20180108-1200z.html

[psuhoffman]

@Bob Chill the reason the gfs is not showing anything is it's not keying on the shortwave the ggem and euro is. It has it but weak and suppressed then it amps up a system 2 days later way west once we've lost the cold. I can see that possibility but at least it's not because it's not even in the ballpark it's just taking a different seat. Last nights EPS did that too. Suppressed everything for a while then cut whatever eventually develops way west after our window of opportunity closed. Today's op run was obviously more hopeful. Let's see if the EPS agrees. 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, mitchnick said:

I do like it. Weather.us site is still available. 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa/precipitation-6h-in/20180108-1200z.html

Yea, I don't like the panels on that site. Crappy nav, graphics, and bad interface. I figured I'd just pony up like usual. Wxbell has the prettiest panels anyways. They make me happy when they look like d10 on the euro today. LOL

[Amped]

Interesting storm on the Euro. +NAO , but EPO block is in a good position. zero chance of the northern stream being that weak with that pattern.

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, I don't like the panels on that site. Crappy nav, graphics, and bad interface. I figured I'd just pony up like usual. Wxbell has the prettiest panels anyways. They make me happy when they look like d10 on the euro today. LOL

Yeah, I had them 2 years ago and agree. I thought Maue's site would have what was free, similar to Wxbell.  They do, but they don't have a mobile page and desktop version is tough to navigate with a toich screen; mouse would be fine. If we get threats going, I'll be happy to put a couple bucks in JB's pocket.  But we need some damn threats!

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, Amped said:

Interesting storm on the Euro. +NAO , but EPO block is in a good position. zero chance of the northern stream being that weak with that pattern.

Decent Heights in Canada to make a cut tough, or at least tough enough for a decent fight. And we know what the results of that fight would be!

[stormy]

40 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Where are these numbers from?  Certainly confirms my recollection.  Not sure that August was any better IMBY.

 

ETA: It wasn't.  Just 2.12" at OKV in August.  Not sure what the avg is for the month, but sure that it is more than 3.5".

This is at Waynesboro.  August was above normal with 4.52 compared to a normal of 3.63. Dry since then.

[Bob Chill]

For now, the eps 0z run was rock bottom. Fair sized cluster jumped on board with variations of the fantasy op threat. Kitchen sink of solutions but enough with frozen to consider the option. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

For now, the eps 0z run was rock bottom. Fair sized cluster jumped on board with variations of the fantasy op threat. Kitchen sink of solutions but enough with frozen to consider the option. 

Lead us to the promised land...

any jump on that weak system day 7?

[Bob Chill]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Lead us to the promised land...

any jump on that weak system day 7?

Somewhat but it looks pretty weak across the board. A good number of dustings but nothing meaningful. 

[yoda]

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

For now, the eps 0z run was rock bottom. Fair sized cluster jumped on board with variations of the fantasy op threat. Kitchen sink of solutions but enough with frozen to consider the option. 

Are you describing the 12z EPS when you mention the fair sized cluster part of your post?

[stormy]

29 minutes ago, Amped said:

Interesting storm on the Euro. +NAO , but EPO block is in a good position. zero chance of the northern stream being that weak with that pattern.

I like the looks of 240 on the Euro. The high is in the right position over upstate New York stretching back across the northern lakes with good cad down the east coast.

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

Are you describing the 12z EPS when you mention the fair sized cluster part of your post?

Yes, well over half have decent to significant precip rolling through d9-12. That's way different than last night's run. However, plenty of rain in there too so it's not all roses. 

ETA: mean precip d9-12 is around .7 in our region so the eps is keying in on a precip event but good snowmakers are by far the minority. 

[Cobalt]

I like the looks of 240 on the Euro. The high is in the right position over upstate New York stretching back across the northern lakes with good cad down the east coast.

Saw that. Looked like the Canadian had something similar. Good news is it looks like after next week, the high pressure will be in a more favorable location for some time. None of that 1030 high in West Virginia or Kentucky crap


.

[CAPE]

Who wants to do a snow chase? We just need a yacht, head a couple hundred miles east of the DE coast, drop anchor, and hang out for a week.

[stormy]

11 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Saw that. Looked like the Canadian had something similar. Good news is it looks like after next week, the high pressure will be in a more favorable location for some time. None of that 1030 high in West Virginia or Kentucky crap


.

The 850 line is retreating too rapidly on the Canadian. With surface temp. at 9F over Augusta at 240, that would likely transition to a significant ice storm.

[poolz1]

Boy, eps sure looks to quickly reload the pattern after the D9-12 system.  Quite a few members with another wicked cold shot on the way...EPO refuses to go away.

Trough north of HI is strengthening at D14 on...

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Boy, eps sure looks to quickly reload the pattern after the D9-12 system.  Quite a few members with another wicked cold shot on the way...EPO refuses to go away.

Trough north of HI is strengthening at D14 on...

I actually like that look a lot. In general I like where we might be heading. If the WAR emerges with a pos or neutral nao the se ridge will be there and yes at times something could go to our north. But with the epo continuing to load cold it will press and we could get waves along the boundary if a high is to our north. We would want less amplified systems but given the trends this year that seems a reasonable get. 

ETA: less amped doesn't mean less precip. Get a tight baroclinoc boundary just to our south and a weak wave along it can do just fine. 

[Bob Chill]

Just for giggles....the control run would be brief period of snowfall followed by a significant ice storm before losing the surface. I'll bet a lot of the members have ice storms as well. It's a prime pattern for mixed to ice with a retreating HP. Tack on solid frozen ground and put on your skates. 

[poolz1]

24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I actually like that look a lot. In general I like where we might be heading. If the WAR emerges with a pos or neutral nao the se ridge will be there and yes at times something could go to our north. But with the epo continuing to load cold it will press and we could get waves along the boundary if a high is to our north. We would want less amplified systems but given the trends this year that seems a reasonable get. 

ETA: less amped doesn't mean less precip. Get a tight baroclinoc boundary just to our south and a weak wave along it can do just fine. 

I agree...I actually liked the look of the WAR in that panel.  It will be interesting to see how this plays out through Jan...if the overall pattern holds in the mean, just some slight variations could make things pretty interesting.  It's LR and all but I do like the idea that, at least for now, a flip to a warm pattern doesnt look to be in cards. Relax and reload enough and something meaningful will come our way.

[Roger Smith]

3 hours ago, Ji said:

we lost the Ukmet but it dosent seem like we ever had it.

 

only thing we have left is JB and Roger Snow(i mean smith)

I did notice faint hope on GGEM, they keep the track (for Jan 3-4) just out of range and drop the 500 mb low at least somewhat further west than other models at this point. You may be down to JB soon, but never say never. By the way, view from my front gate explains the name change ...