Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

[csnavywx]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I had a feeling it would be nice. It's almost always a bigger deal than the Operational.

Problem is that only a few of the ensemble members agree with that evolution. Most are OTS or nothing at all (75%). Maybe 10-12 have anything of note.

 

Virtually an all-or-nothing scenario where timing is exceedingly important.

[aldie 22]

Curious what Bob and hoffs thoughts are on the likelihood this happens...have they posted their thoughts in here?

[stormtracker]

32 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Surprising run of the Euro. Looked farther East, but I guess it makes up for it. I beg all of you to tread lightly though. I made the mistake of not treading lightly last week for this Friday's event. We're still at the point where models are gonna bounce around a ton. With that said, it's good the Euro is being bullish for once. It seems to have taken place for the Canadian at this given moment. Hopefully the East bias for models play out and we get a healthy snowstorm. My optimistic expectation is 3-6" from the edge of the storm with high ratios. Basically, I'm saying don't get your hopes up too much. On to the EPS

 

 

.

 

Before I read this post, I was treading heavy af. Then your authorative, reassuring words brought me back down to earth.  Thank God for you and your 14yo wisdom. 

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

still learning here....what is the control Run exactly???  how does that differ from the operational?

Control uses the unperturbed initial conditions (same as the op) but runs at the resolution of the ensemble members.

[Ralph Wiggum]

OMG CONTROL
W
Precip doesn't extend out very far west but its nice to see the tucked low close to the coast. 6" or so as Cobalt said.

What physics is causing the sharp cutoff (relative) of precip on the W side of the low? I would think a sub 960 would have more widespread.

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Problem is that only a few of the ensemble members agree with that evolution. Most are OTS or nothing at all (75%). Maybe 10-12 have anything of note.

That’s last nights EPS, yes?

edit...never mind, Eps is populating now. 

[mitchnick]

Found the Control Run

Apparently brings warm air into the coastal regions so less snow on Lower Easter Shore of MD

Baltimore in the 8-12" and DCA is 6-8"

 

[aldie 22]

OMG just like Sandy

[mitchnick]

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

OMG just like Sandy

Remind me again which model "nailed" Sandy?

For purposes of Ravensrule, Sandy the Hurricane.

[osfan24]

11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

OMG CONTROL

W

Precip doesn't extend out very far west but its nice to see the tucked low close to the coast. 6" or so as Cobalt said.

Is that Sandy? LOL. 

[csnavywx]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That’s last nights EPS, yes?

I've got the 12z run atm.

 

Ridiculous spread /uncertainty on this run. Even more so than the last run.

[Cobalt]

I've got the 12z run atm.
 
Ridiculous spread /uncertainty on this run. Even more so than the last run.

Snow mean looks similar to last run. Eyeballing the low location, and there are many sub 980 lows. I even see a couple near the 960 range.


.

[osfan24]

19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's pretty obvious this is mostly an all or none deal. Yea, we could get scraped and score an inch or two but the 2 most likely outcomes by a huge margin are zero and a moderate or large event. It's nothing like other more typical storms where we have a fairly wide range of outcomes that all include accumulating snow. Thinking that 1-3 or 2-4 or whatever is a fair compromise won't work here. Be prepared for partly cloudy skies or a pretty hard hitting storm with the former being the heavy favorite for the next 3 days or so. 

My takeaway as well. Either we are getting bombed or watching NE get bombed while we enjoy cold and dry. I don't think there will be an in-between. I know which way I'm currently leaning. 

[poolz1]

1 minute ago, csnavywx said:

I've got the 12z run atm.

 

Ridiculous spread /uncertainty on this run. Even more so than the last run.

I was thinking the same thing..no real obvious shift in any direction.  Still a lot of spread...

Tho we can at least droll over this particular member!  978 stalled at the mouth of the Chesapeake ..

 

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

I've got the 12z run atm.

 

Ridiculous spread /uncertainty on this run. Even more so than the last run.

Someone posted half of them on phillywx. Of those, there are a couple like the op and control, several more that have weaker lows that probably would give us snow, lots of fish storms, and a few with no storm at all.

[Amped]

15 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

OMG just like Sandy

The only way we get 12" of snow from this is if NYC is 50f and rain.

[WxUSAF]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Someone posted half of them on phillywx. Of those, there are a couple like the op and control, several more that have weaker lows that probably would give us snow, lots of fish storms, and a few with no storm at all.

Whole suite was posted there now. 11 if 51 give the metro area significant precip. Another 5-7 are fairly near misses. Most keep the storm well offshore if there’s a storm st all.

[Bob Chill]

Over half (27) members develop the low far enough south AND get at least some precip to I95. Some big ones and some scrapes. But there's the benchmark. Just over half the members have a progressive that gets things going south of us AND pushes precip to the corridor. Not bad if you ask me. 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Whole suite was posted there now. 11 if 51 give the metro area significant precip. Another 5-7 are fairly near misses. Most keep the storm well offshore if there’s a storm st all.

Went through the panels and it looked better than that but I did it quick. Doing this level of drilled down detail is kinda silly anyways. All we can do is hope the op and control lock in and lead the way. And just ignore anything that doesn't agree with our hopes and dreams. 

[psuhoffman]

Kinda like Bob said, only about 10 of the EPS have anything, but the ones that do almost all of them are a BIG solution.  No fringe jobs or minor events, its either big or nothing.  80% on the nothing.  The 3" mean is basically from a lot of nothings and a handful of 12" solutions. 

[Cobalt]

Over half (27) members develop the low far enough south AND get at least some precip to I95. Some big ones and some scrapes. But there's the benchmark. Just over half the members have a progressive that gets things going south of us AND pushes precip to the corridor. Not bad if you ask me. 

Not bad at all. We've just gotta hope that the track of the storm is Initially farther west, and that we're not relying on a 950 low to get us snow. Would models overdoing cold for this next week have an impact on this? Seems like that was the case with the Dec 8-9 storm


.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Kinda like Bob said, only about 10 of the EPS have anything, but the ones that do almost all of them are a BIG solution.  No fringe jobs or minor events, its either big or nothing.  80% on the nothing.  The 3" mean is basically from a lot of nothings and a handful of 12" solutions. 

Yup. This is a scenario where the mean precip is especially useless. If there’s a storm and it’s far enough west, we get hit hard. Gonna be a brutal gradient somewhere.

[87storms]

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Over half (27) members develop the low far enough south AND get at least some precip to I95. Some big ones and some scrapes. But there's the benchmark. Just over half the members have a progressive that gets things going south of us AND pushes precip to the corridor. Not bad if you ask me. 

south seems pretty doable with the way the high is suppressing things, but west is my concern.  definitely would like to see the trough shifted west a bit instead of relying on a NS SW nose diving into our region from the lakes.  i think that would make things a bit risky here.

[Ji]

Yea this will be a NE special throwing us into more bitterness

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

[Eskimo Joe]

Euro control is an Eskimo Joe special from BWI north.  Beautiful banana high to the west too.  Wow.

[Interstate]

Lets just hope we can cash in before the pattern breaks

[Quasievil]

28 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I was thinking the same thing..no real obvious shift in any direction.  Still a lot of spread...

Tho we can at least droll over this particular member!  978 stalled at the mouth of the Chesapeake ..

 

That's pure weather pron. Image saved!

[WVclimo]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

With the bowling ball closing off like this and the southern vort backing in....this is a powderkeg run across the board...god dang it, this will drive a weenie crazy...

As soon as I saw this I had a flashback to another Euro run, at a 5 day lead.  Went back and looked at old threads and there were a lot of similarities to today's model runs a week out.

 

[Bob Chill]

^ lol....one of the few storms I've been trying to remove from my memory. 

 

FWIW- digging into the EPS a little more there wasn't much of a move in our favor compared to 0z last night. However, there is more support for the strange angle of attack with flow backing in front of the trough and bringing the storm in at an unusual angle in the southeast. We would all prefer a more conventional run up the coast of course but it's going to be a good bit before we know if we even stand a chance let alone how good it might be. 

 

ETA: looking further down the line, the eps made a decisive move away from the trough west/AN heights east longwave pattern d10-15. Now showing a +PNA/-EPO with trough axis centered in the middle of the country. I doubt the weeklies continue their disaster look for long. Winter seems to be winning this year whether it snows or not. lol

[clskinsfan]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Seems like we get ripped off some how, but still nice

You get ripped off?

I have been looking at the 2m temps after this storm passes and we are talking about some serious cold here. The CMC has lows in my area of 10-15 below zero. That is historic in and of itself.