Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

[psuhoffman]

I don't hate the look of the EPS day 10-15. Has the gefs look of a boundary near us with low pressure to our south and highs to our north. 

[Cobalt]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

^ lol....one of the few storms I've been trying to remove from my memory. 

 

FWIW- digging into the EPS a little more there wasn't much of a move in our favor compared to 0z last night. However, there is more support for the strange angle of attack with flow backing in front of the trough and bringing the storm in at an unusual angle in the southeast. We would all prefer a more conventional run up the coast of course but it's going to be a good bit before we know if we even stand a chance let alone how good it might be. 

 

ETA: looking further down the line, the eps made a decisive move away from the trough west/AN heights east longwave pattern d10-15. Now showing a +PNA/-EPO with trough axis centered in the middle of the country. I doubt the weeklies continue their disaster look for long. Winter seems to be winning this year whether it snows or not. lol

More winter is better than no winter, whether we get snow or not. I'd rather look outside and see dry and bare ground (and cold) rather than rain. Good news is that once (or when) this pattern relaxes, we'll be close to peak climo, so it won't impact us as much.

[Cobalt]

DT skeptical of the storm. Hopefully he's wrong as he was with this Friday's event. 

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

OMG CONTROL
W
Precip doesn't extend out very far west but its nice to see the tucked low close to the coast. 6" or so as Cobalt said.

What physics is causing the sharp cutoff (relative) of precip on the W side of the low? I would think a sub 960 would have more widespread.

We see that a lot when the storms first show up on the models. Hence the fringed comments in our forum  The precip field almost always expands as we get closer to the event for some reason. So to answer your question I dont know why the models do it. I just know that it usually has me on edge then ends up working out fine in the end.

[Amped]

Closest analog that comes to mind is March 2 1914. Troff goes negative too early for a good 12/26/2010, also there was no 1028mb high offshore on that one.  We didn't get much snow from either.

 

[Jebman]

6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

You get ripped off?

I have been looking at the 2m temps after this storm passes and we are talking about some serious cold here. The CMC has lows in my area of 10-15 below zero. That is historic in and of itself.

Your temps make our low of 11 last night look positively like a heat wave. I might have to take a swim in the Potomac to cool off.

[Bob Chill]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don't hate the look of the EPS day 10-15. Has the gefs look of a boundary near us with low pressure to our south and highs to our north. 

I've seen much worse many times. haha. It works. Especially in the heart of cold climo. If it takes a break from aggressive cold to finally bring some aggressive precip then sobeit. 

ETA: also another example of why I don't like the weeklies. Ens mean h5 is already very different d12-15 than what the weeklies from the 25th showed week 3. 

[showmethesnow]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don't hate the look of the EPS day 10-15. Has the gefs look of a boundary near us with low pressure to our south and highs to our north. 

Liked the look myself. Have the southern jet running up the east coast trough the whole period. Could see some juicy storms but we also run the risk of ending up on the wrong side of the boundary.

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Liked the look myself. Have the southern jet running up the east coast trough the whole period. Could see some juicy storms but we also run the risk of ending up on the wrong side of the boundary.

I think most of us would be fine with taking the risk of rain vs snow or a mix in between. Risking rain is better than being completely dry

[Cobalt]

 

[mitchnick]

Welp, we got snow from a 12/9 setup no one could recall ever seeing, so why not this one.

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Welp, we got snow from a 12/9 setup no one could recall ever seeing, so why not this one.

I'm hoping that SE bias on the models is a constant fixture this winter. Would help us in setups like this. Have the storm 50-100 miles farther West before it turns North, and we've got a better shot at it. 

[CAPE]

Mount Holly's brief take on the mid week storm threat-

Mid week next week: A few operational models and ensemble members
are depicting a coastal low lifting north, close enough to our region
to result in snow across the area. However, given how stagnant the
mid and upper level pattern is now, this would require a fast
transition to see the longwave trough weaken that quickly. Stayed
close to the previous forecast with a chance of snow on Wednesday
night. We will likely not have a better handle on the details until
at least early next week.

[Amped]

GFS doesn't look as amped up as 12z 114hrs.

[Bob Chill]

GFS isn't even close. Won't be any high 5's this run. 

[poolz1]

Northern stream energy certainly not diving as deep or as far west a 12z....dont think this run will be what we are looking for.  

[Superstorm]

Completely OTS. GFS not anyone’s friend.


.

[Ralph Wiggum]

GFS vorts completely out of sync this run. But the one behind it near day, um, 10 looks promising ;-)

[ATreglown]

From Wakefield at 3:58 before the 18z gfs

 

Wednesday-Thursday may shape up to be a much different story, with
the latest EURO, GFS, and Canadian models beginning to arrive at a
modest consensus. Influenced by a strengthening mid-level trough, an
offshore low materializes east of South Carolina. The aforementioned
trough appears to grab hold of the low pressure system, intensify
forcing/800-750mb frontogenesis, and send it on a trajectory
northward along the eastern seaboard. Main differences in global
models lie in how far west the low pressure center actually gets,
with the EURO being furthest west right now. Depending on its path,
this will influence a) how much precipitation is received in any
given area and b) where the heaviest axis of precip sets up. In
response to somewhat better model agreement and run-to-run
consistency of the EURO, bumped up PoPs slightly for this timeframe,
especially along the coast.

Remember...any specifics are way too soon to nail down and will
likely change between now and next week. What is for sure --- we are
in for a cold start to 2018.

[Jebman]

Plenty of hope this winter, just keep looking 240 hours out lol.

Sooner or later, we are gonna time one of these shortwaves and then we are gonna SCORE!

[Amped]

Summary, This weeks Euro fantasy storm was exciting, but last weeks GFS fantasy storm was the best storm ever.

 

[87storms]

OTS is an understatement.  the storm is close to bermuda this run.  hopefully just a hiccup.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

This time and after could surprise a lot of people... Models now have a rogue 500mb +High on the west coast in 4-5 days. Historically, this is a presign to coming +AO

[Cobalt]

GFS could be hiccup, but we need a West trend for the original storm before it bombs out and goes to a sub 970 low. I have faith that it happens. High pressures look like they're in a more favorable spot 

[dailylurker]

13 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Plenty of hope this winter, just keep looking 240 hours out lol.

Sooner or later, we are gonna time one of these shortwaves and then we are gonna SCORE!

Or were going for a 76/77 type winter. You can drive across the bay but hardly shovel a flake.

[Ralph Wiggum]

In all seriousness we may have already seen our best modeled runs for the Jan 4 threat IF the recent patterns are continuing, ie, decent looking teleconnection signal 8-10 days out, specific modeled big hits 6-8 days out, then around 6 days out we begin taking steps back where the progressive ns pattern starts squashing or shearing out stj waves and then we move towards a ns dominant system. Wash rinse repeat every 3-4 days. Really hope Im wrong but this is becoming a theme and predictable so far.

 

 Eta: we are going to likely score eventually but really need a better ATL look and/or some other mechanism to slow down the ns. Patience.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Cobalt]

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

In all seriousness we may have already seen our best modeled runs for the Jan 4 threat IF the recent patterns are continuing, ie, decent looking teleconnection signal 8-10 days out, specific modeled big hits 6-8 days out, then around 6 days out we begin taking steps back where the progressive ns pattern starts squashing or shearing out stj waves and then we move towards a ns dominant system. Wash rinse repeat every 3-4 days. Really hope Im wrong but this is becoming a theme and predictable so far.

 

 Eta: we are going to likely score eventually but really need a better ATL look and/or some other mechanism to slow down the ns. Patience.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Amen. If every snow threat panned out, we'd be in a Blizzard Warning for tomorrow expecting 2 more MECS in the next week. We'll get our own fair share of threats. 

[Jebman]

19 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Or were going for a 76/77 type winter. You can drive across the bay but hardly shovel a flake.

Todays high was only 21. Forecasters are saying we are not even halfway thru this cold wave, and that the worst of it is yet to come lolz.

I'd love to enjoy a nice Bay jebwalk.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Amen. If every snow threat panned out, we'd be in a Blizzard Warning for tomorrow expecting 2 more MECS in the next week. We'll get our own fair share of threats. 

Yessir.....there is a reason triple phasing MECS/HECS are a rarity. If they panned out every time we saw one modeled we would have on average one every season.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Todays high was only 21. Forecasters are saying we are not even halfway thru this cold wave, and that the worst of it is yet to come lolz.

Gratefully this year we have the cold so far and at least some minor verifying systems for 'mood'. I couldnt imagine these subforums if we were gunning for another dud with +AN temps and zero chances.