December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)

[Sugarloaf1989]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 Probably more so for you then I cut everybody gets in on some fun as it stands.

Jefferson's reference, but yes.

[WxBlue]

GFS pretty much followed NAM. I'd look at more, but wifi is crapping out on me at work.

[SouthCoastMA]

9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think your fine... this run still looks basically 100% fine for folks west of the canal.

I feel pretty good here 

Cold levels @ 925 definitely providing a bit of wiggle room west of the canal. Just saying it will get more precarious with any additional shifting. 

[ORH_wxman]

That's a really nice GFS run for many. It's amping up nicely increasing the ML fronto....but at the same time, speed is helping keeping this thing from going up the CT River. It's moving right along.

[weathafella]

After some meat we currier.  Surprising duration.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Jefferson's reference, but yes.

Oh' I know, I grew up in the 70s

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

After some meat we currier.  Surprising duration.

The deeper solution allows for some ULL snows to hang back overnight into Sunday morning,.

[dryslot]

Lot of low level moisture hanging around to boot, Snow globe stuff.

[CoastalWx]

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Actually we do have one....lol. I doubt you'll need to run from taint there though...maybe deal with a few hours of 33F paste would be my guess.

That's what I am guess too. Will be interesting.

[ineedsnow]

Gfs and nam are a pretty good snowstorm... We take!!

[STILL N OF PIKE]

We talking low end warning on GFS

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dryslot said:

Lot of low level moisture hanging around to boot, Snow globe stuff.

Yeah and the DGZ tanks so it allows for the Currier. I was mentioning that earlier...but thew 18z runs finally show it.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

We talking low end warning on GFS

Yeah high end advisory to low end warning.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The deeper solution allows for some ULL snows to hang back overnight into Sunday morning,.

Even looks like we get some light bands to hang out back here for a while.  Sometimes Greenfield gets that inch of bonus  at the end coming off the lift of the monadnocks.

 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That's what I am guess too. Will be interesting.

It's like -3C at 950mb...gonna be hard to taint with that. It tries to tickle above -2C for a brief time....but again, 950 is pretty low...gonna need at least 0C there to taint IMHO. I think this system is moving too fast to really bring a lot of taint away from the Cape...maybe for a couple hours on extreme south shore...we'll see. I suppose this could go apesh**....but I'd want to see more evidence for that.

[weathafella]

Reggie? 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

It's like -3C at 950mb...gonna be hard to taint with that. It tries to tickle above -2C for a brief time....but again, 950 is pretty low...gonna need at least 0C there to taint IMHO. I think this system is moving too fast to really bring a lot of taint away from the Cape...maybe for a couple hours on extreme south shore...we'll see. I suppose this could go apesh**....but I'd want to see more evidence for that.

Yeah the GFS is pretty cold. That's usually what I look for. -2c or so at 950. Sometimes this longitude sticks out just enough...but not always. For now, it looks pretty good even here I think. 

[ROOSTA]

A GOOD START to met winter. Sleep deprivation, always waiting the next run, dissecting every aspect.
Release the hounds...good juju! 
 

[CoastalWx]

And yes the strung out low that is deepening has a pretty good nrly ageo flow to it. Luckily.

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The deeper solution allows for some ULL snows to hang back overnight into Sunday morning,.

Would that be days and days of snows? As in more than 1 day?

[OceanStWx]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's a really nice GFS run for many. It's amping up nicely increasing the ML fronto....but at the same time, speed is helping keeping this thing from going up the CT River. It's moving right along.

Definitely time to start thinking about convection in the GoM. 

Are we going to keep it more N/S and induce the southerly LLJ, or will it be more shunted east. Right now models are favoring N/S, hence latent heat building up the ridge and allowing westward nudges. Also increasing that f-gen you mention, as the mid level warm front isn't going too far north with that northern stream shortwave barreling through.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Reggie? 

Stuck on pause all day long but dryslutt or dendrite, forget, did the extended rgem and it looked good.

Sharpen the shovels tonight. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Stuck on pause all day long but dryslutt or dendrite, forget, did the extended rgem and it looked good.

Sharpen the shovels tonight. 

Yeah, I posted it earlier, Its locked as well, All guidance has trended positively.

[WintersComing]

To follow along with Ginxy's analogy from yesterday....looks like the Midgets (NAM and Ukie) may have just beaten the snot out of John Cenas and followed in up with a good Ol fashion tea baggin.

[Ginx snewx]

Cobb IJD and Coochie Coo

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, Zeus said:

Aight.

I'm up.

Winter has arrived

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Would that be days and days of snows? As in more than 1 day?

lol.  Back to that.

Looks like a KTOLLA jack on the GFS for ya... best combo of moisture and temperatures there in CT/C.MA with mid-level banding to boot.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, WintersComing said:

To follow along with Ginxy's analogy from yesterday....looks like the Midgets (NAM and Ukie) may have just beaten the snot out of John Cenas and followed in up with a good Ol fashion tea baggin.

Lol no, surprise Guest just stunned all of them

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

This gon keep coming nw. 

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Would that be days and days of snows? As in more than 1 day?

Eh, you might stretch it to 24 hours with the currier and ives stuff.