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December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Rates can overcome any warm ground.  April Fools 1997...May 10 1977.  Etc etc etc

I get all warm and fuzzy at some of the enthusiasm from experienced and knowledgeable hobbyists and Mets in this thread.

2” is a victory for this weekend. 4” is amazing. 6” and I would kiss Jerry’s bald head

The ground is pretty cold on 4/1. In the end accums come down to the skin temp of the various surfaces, and that number is a function of the net of many variables. The ground is cold and solar is low this time of year so people need to stop worrying about that. If it doesn’t stick it’s because your 2m temps are probably 33-34F. 

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Ericjcrash

Ericjcrash

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, dendrite said:

The ground is pretty cold on 4/1. In the end accums come down to the skin temp of the various surfaces, and that number is a function of the net of many variables. The ground is cold and solar is low this time of year so people need to stop worrying about that. If it doesn’t stick it’s because your 2m temps are probably 33-34F. 

That was overcome In NYC mid-day in October, I really wouldnt worry too much. Like you said favorable sun angle and it's not like anyone here is torching now.

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CT Valley Snowman

CT Valley Snowman

Posted
Posted

Man am I giddy about this. Like a kid in a candy shop it never gets old. Snow before the Holidays and deep winter cold.  Are we done trending west? GEFS was impressive to say the least.  Whether we get 2-4 or 4-8 around here, we snow, period.  Hard to see the rug getting pulled out from under us with this type of set up.  

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Will I was going to ask about the thermal profiles on the GFS.  Dees it still run warm in the BL?

It's prob a tad too warm at the surface. But in this setup it won't be as bad as during a CAD setup. It's usually awful with CAD setups...it's gotten better than years ago but still subpar...particularly when the CAD is eroding with a receding high...it erodes it way too fast. 

The 950 temps in your hood make it to about -0.5 so you're looking at a paste job for a while if the 18z GFS verifies. You'd prob need to get a solution a bit west of the 18z NAM before you taint. I think taint will be fairly limited west of the canal of it does happen due to speed. 

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Thanks for the response.  Honestly I don’t care if it taints or not was more curious if the GFS BL issues were corrected.  Love seeing these interactions of polar and subtropic streams that I alluded to when we were discussing this upcoming pattern.  Here we are with our 1st threat.

Juju.    I had sorta written this off for my hood...you saved Christmas

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

For any concerns of creeping ptype issues on coast, NAM doesn't look like a more amped solution thru 30h... if anything maybe a hair less amped than 18z with both northern stream digging and southern stream tilt...

Yeah I was gonna say this is the first run in a while that isn't more amped. It's pretty similar and I agree if anything maybe slightly less amped. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Will the 00z NAM seems more consolidated with the surface low and deeper with a 1004mb over the NC and SC coasts at hour 33

The differences are pretty darn small right now. The 00z run almost looks a shade slower but the northern stream isn't digging as much...though the entire trough is a little west. I think the two may almost offset. 

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The differences are pretty darn small right now. The 00z run almost looks a shade slower but the northern stream isn't digging as much...though the entire trough is a little west. I think the two may almost offset. 

Might even be a little better up here the way that trough is orientated.

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