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December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Someone is getting a 10 spot easily. If I had to guess without really analyzing  might be somewhere near ORH-TOL-BDL- maybe just east of DxR? Just a guess. Could be near Codfish too. Second area to watch is near CF. not that it's a massive front, but could enhance near it. My guess is near coastal Essex county-near BOS and down maybe near or just NW of Brockton on SW.  Getting a little dicey here but will analyze when I get in. 

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ineedsnow

ineedsnow

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Someone is getting a 10 spot easily. If I had to guess without really analyzing  might be somewhere near ORH-TOL-BDL- maybe just east of DxR? Just a guess. Could be near Codfish too. Second area to watch is near CF. not that it's a massive front, but could enhance near it. My guess is near coastal Essex county-near BOS and down maybe near or just NW of Brockton on SW.  Getting a little dicey here but will analyze when I get in. 

Oh how we pray back here

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WintersComing

WintersComing

Posted
Posted
Someone is getting a 10 spot easily. If I had to guess without really analyzing  might be somewhere near ORH-TOL-BDL- maybe just east of DxR? Just a guess. Could be near Codfish too. Second area to watch is near CF. not that it's a massive front, but could enhance near it. My guess is near coastal Essex county-near BOS and down maybe near or just NW of Brockton on SW.  Getting a little dicey here but will analyze when I get in. 


What map or product do you use to see the front or deform band?


.
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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That whole currier and Ives idea...personally that doesn’t workout much in my experience around here...I’ll be curious to see if this time it does... but not putting much stock in that. Most times when it ends..it ends and clears quickly.  But we’ll see? 

ULL is pretty strong and is lagging behind the lower level frontogenetic forcing so we def could see a period of lighter snow after the meat of the event. It may go until 3-4am or until mid Sunday morning. Hard to say but I think we will see some lighter snows lagging. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

ULL is pretty strong and is lagging behind the lower level frontogenetic forcing so we def could see a period of lighter snow after the meat of the event. It may go until 3-4am or until mid Sunday morning. Hard to say but I think we will see some lighter snows lagging. 

Sounds interesting..it’ll be interesting if that does indeed play out here.  Thanks for the response Will.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The 6z BTV WRF is a bit colder, but also has a nice banding signal from Waterbury/Hartford through adjacent MA and up into NH. But that model has been a bit jumpy too. 

Funny how the GFS is now the warmest model. All the mesos are colder and a little less amped too and the euro as well. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Funny how the GFS is now the warmest model. All the mesos are colder and a little less amped too and the euro as well. 

Right? Big switch there. The NAM is sort of how I see this working out in terms of what makes sense. I also wonder why some guidance almost warms a tick or too across the area as winds become more N-NNW. Must be the time of year. You most certainly are not warming near the coast when winds back like that. 

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