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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95
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From the GSP AFD......Well that escalated quickly considering where we were just 10 days ago.  Of course it is late October so not all that unusual for the mountains.  Sure would have been nice to have this Miller A in January.  What a classic set up.

There may be just enough cold air at the highest
elevations to mix with or turn to snow at times, especially at the
beginning and end of the event. Little or no accumulations are
expected through Saturday.
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How often do AFDs mention getting dry slotted 4-5 days in advance?

From RAH...

The eventual rainfall amounts will depend on the exact track 
of the surface low lifting up the coast and how quickly the area 
get's dry slotted, which would transition rain to increasingly more 
drizzly in nature.
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35 minutes ago, Solak said:

How often do AFDs mention getting dry slotted 4-5 days in advance?

From RAH...

The eventual rainfall amounts will depend on the exact track 
of the surface low lifting up the coast and how quickly the area 
get's dry slotted, which would transition rain to increasingly more 
drizzly in nature.

Maybe they’re finally remembering that we always get dry slotted and just getting it out of the way early, instead of finally getting to it as the sun is coming out during the storm.

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I guess WRAL is expecting it, too. Quite a bit less than what  WPC shows.

p120i.gif

Rain is in the forecast starting on Friday and lasting into Sunday. Here's a look at the rainfall potential from Friday morning through Sunday evening. It would be a good idea to keep the umbrellas handy through the weekend. @WRALWeather

No automatic alt text available.
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GOOD ARTICLE. Goes right along with all the new GFS  / FV3 chatter. Long for the day it shows a Carolina paste bomb and verefies. To think we may be knocking on the door of an american model with some reputable skill score . It runs 4x a day and we dont have to wait up till 2 am to view the 0z suite.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/10/noaa-is-about-to-make-some-big-changes-to-its-global-weather-model/?amp=1

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9 hours ago, PackGrad05 said:

It's always funny how we have the random cold days and then the days where we kind of want it to be cold (Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas) always seem to be above normal.  (or it seems that way)

The most important thing for me is Halloween is dry. Right now my grid forecast is 74/59 with sunny to partly cloudy. That sounds great to me... 

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GOOD ARTICLE. Goes right along with all the new GFS  / FV3 chatter. Long for the day it shows a Carolina paste bomb and verefies. To think we may be knocking on the door of an american model with some reputable skill score . It runs 4x a day and we dont have to wait up till 2 am to view the 0z suite.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/10/noaa-is-about-to-make-some-big-changes-to-its-global-weather-model/?amp=1


Nipping at the euro’s heels.


.
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11 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Another good rain event coming Thursday! Models showing around 1” for the Upstate 

I'll pass, had more  than enough rain for awhile. 

Looks like first half  of November to be a little  above normal. Not only no freeze, but not even seeing any 30s. Hope the winter does not remember  that!:wacko2:

 

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5 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I'll pass, had more  than enough rain for awhile. 

Looks like first half  of November to be a little  above normal. Not only no freeze, but not even seeing any 30s. Hope the winter does not remember  that!:wacko2:

 

I'll take above average in Nov. instead of Jan. Although I'm sure I'll take it then too though. Lol

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11 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I'll pass, had more  than enough rain for awhile. 

Looks like first half  of November to be a little  above normal. Not only no freeze, but not even seeing any 30s. Hope the winter does not remember  that!:wacko2:

 

Good timing.  Rubber bands and sloshing bath water type of stuff. 

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